Why Lam Research Still Looks Like a Buy After a 300% Rally

Key Points

• Lam Research has surged almost 300% over the past 12 months, yet Wall Street still sees further upside ahead.
• Strong earnings, expanding margins, and accelerating AI infrastructure demand continue to strengthen the bull case.
• This week’s SpaceX-related reports have added another layer of excitement to an already red-hot momentum story.

In a field of success stories, Lam Research Corporation NASDAQ: LRCX has become one of the absolute winners of the AI boom. As of May 7, the stock was up almost 300% in the last 12 months, more than 70% year to date, and over 30% in the past month alone.

While undoubtedly great for those who’ve been in for the whole ride, the pure one-directional nature of the move, particularly in recent weeks, may be making investors cautious right about now.

However, Lam Research continues to attract fresh bullish attention, helped by strong earnings two weeks ago, growing excitement around AI infrastructure spending, and now fresh speculation tied to SpaceX’s ambitious semiconductor expansion plans. The result is a stock that’s already been soaring into the proverbial stratosphere, yet analysts still argue the best may be yet to come. Let’s jump in and take a closer look at why.

Strong Earnings Confirmed the Bull Case

The biggest reason Lam Research continues to rally is that the company is no longer trading on hype alone. This might well have been the case a year ago. Still, investors are now seeing clear evidence that the underlying business is benefiting directly from the AI-driven surge in semiconductor demand.

Last month’s earnings report reinforced that view in a major way. Revenue growth was strong, margins expanded, and management delivered exactly the kind of confident outlook investors were hoping for. More importantly, the company showed that demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment is continuing to accelerate as chipmakers race to expand AI-related production capacity.

This matters because Lam sits at the center of the semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem. The more aggressively companies invest in advanced chips, memory, and foundry capacity, the greater the demand for Lam’s equipment and technology.

Investors are increasingly recognizing that dynamic. As with many other companies MarketBeat has covered recently, Lam is no longer viewed as just another cyclical semiconductor stock. Instead, it’s increasingly being treated as a direct infrastructure play on the AI boom itself. That distinction helps explain why the rally is continuing into May even after logging such enormous gains over the past 12 months.

The SpaceX News Adds Another Layer of Excitement

The other catalyst helping to fuel the latest leg of the rally came on Wednesday, May 6, in the form of reports surrounding SpaceX’s ambitious Terafab semiconductor project in Texas.

According to reports, SpaceX is planning a massive semiconductor manufacturing facility to produce its cutting-edge 2nm chips by the end of the decade, in support of its AI and robotics ambitions. Lam Research has reportedly emerged as one of the key equipment suppliers Elon Musk has contacted regarding the project.

Even though the details are still speculative, investors immediately saw the potential upside. And just as Intel Corp NASDAQ: INTC shares reacted earlier this week to news that Apple Inc NASDAQ: AAPL was considering them as a partner, Lam shares went to fresh all-time highs.

This is exactly the kind of narrative that momentum investors love. It could tie Lam Research directly to one of the hottest themes in the market while also linking the company to Elon Musk, AI, domestic manufacturing, robotics, and next-generation semiconductor infrastructure.

Whether the project ultimately reaches its full scale remains to be seen. Still, the fact that Lam is being associated with it at all further strengthens the perception that the company sits right at the center of the AI infrastructure buildout.

The Rally Is Stretched, But the Trend Remains Strong

Investors should not ignore how extended the stock has become in the near term. A 300% rally over 12 months is extraordinary by any standard, and the latest leg higher has been especially aggressive.

Technically speaking, Lam Research is clearly overbought, and a period of profit-taking or consolidation would be completely normal after a move like this. Investors considering chasing the stock here need to be realistic about that risk.

However, the broader setup still looks favorable. Importantly, analysts remain bullish despite the massive gains already seen. The likes of Deutsche Bank recently reiterated its Buy rating alongside a $325 price target, while Oppenheimer did the same, only with a $330 target.

For investors on the sidelines wondering whether it’s worth chasing the stock at these levels, that matters, because it suggests Wall Street still sees meaningful upside ahead, even after one of the market's strongest rallies. The stock may need time to cool off in the short term, but the bigger picture continues to point higher.

Lam Research appears well-positioned to benefit from a rare combination of strong execution, powerful industry tailwinds, and accelerating investor enthusiasm for AI infrastructure. And as long as companies keep racing to build the infrastructure powering the AI economy, Lam looks likely to remain one of the biggest winners.