3 Agriculture Stocks to Buy as Food Inflation Stays Elevated in 2026

Key Points

• Food inflation is expected to remain above the historical average in 2026, creating tailwinds for agricultural commodity-linked stocks.
• Deere is benefiting from precision agriculture adoption and improving equipment demand at a cyclical turning point.
• Mosaic and Nutrien offer leveraged exposure to rising fertilizer prices, though input cost volatility remains a key risk.

In theory, inflation should self-correct. That is when the price of goods and services get too high; sales drop off to a point where the supply-demand cycle gets back in balance. But in the real world, inflation gets sticky because there are some goods and services, like food and gasoline, that consumers can’t avoid.

To illustrate this, the USDA’s Economic Research Service has projected overall food prices to rise 3.6% in 2026. That’s above the 20-year historical average and well above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.

It would be easy to point the finger at grocery stores, but they work on such razor-thin margins that the argument doesn’t hold. The problem is more structural and, unfortunately, has many factors that are independent of each other.

For example, food prices have been accelerating because of higher commodity prices. Just when there were signs higher prices were abating, the conflict in the Middle East drove up energy prices, which acted as a headwind to input costs.

All of this means that food prices aren’t coming down anytime soon. That's a challenge for consumers, but an opportunity for investors to buy agriculture stocks that are positioned to benefit from this disruption.

Positioned at the Cycle Bottom, Primed for the Turn

Deere & Co. NYSE: DE is an example of why investors should invest in best-in-class stocks. Long before the downturn in the agriculture cycle, Deere was investing in precision technology, including autonomous vehicles and artificial intelligence, in anticipation of future demand.

Despite the sector's headwinds, Deere is seeing benefits. Used large tractor inventories are down more than 40% from a peak in early 2025. That’s leaving room for new equipment. And 80% of new combine orders now include Deere’s highest-tier automation package. That suggests farmers are all in on the future of precision agriculture. Deere is also getting a tailwind from infrastructure demand, including data centers.

That explains why DE stock is up over 30% in the last 12 months and over 25% in 2026. In the two years prior, the total return in the stock was 18%.

Analysts have a consensus price target of $655.45 on DE stock, which still offers some pside as of April 14. That pairs with a dividend that has a current yield of 1.1% and an annual payout of $6.48 per share.

A Deep-Value Stock at a Cyclical Inflection Point

The Mosaic Company NYSE: MOS is one of the world’s leading producers and marketers of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. So, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that MOS is down about 10% in the 30 days ending April 16. Fertilizer prices are expected to soar as critical inputs can’t move through the Strait of Hormuz.

Mosaic is highly sensitive to sulfur costs. Analysts forecast that every $10 per ton increase in sulfur prices will cut approximately $10 million from Mosaic’s quarterly EBITDA.

That margin squeeze could offset any benefit Mosaic would receive from last year’s announcement by China’s National Development and Reform Commission that it was implementing a dual-track pricing model that effectively banned phosphate exports until at least August.

Analysts are neutral to bearish with a consensus Hold rating and a $30 price target that offers about 20% upside. That said, MOS is attractively valued at around 14x earnings and about 12x forward earnings. Those estimates may be too low if the company can deliver stronger 12-month earnings growth than the 7.8% currently forecast.

The World's Largest Potash Producer, Firing on All Cylinders

Nutrien NYSE: NTR is a solid momentum play for investors. The company generated net earnings of $2.30 billion for the full year 2025. This was driven by the combination of higher net selling prices for fertilizer, record upstream fertilizer sales volumes, and stronger retail earnings.

That sent NTR up nearly 35% in the last 12 months and 15% in 2026. The company’s scale, which includes potash mines in Saskatchewan, nitrogen facilities across North America, and a sprawling direct-to-farmer retail network, helps position the Canadian-based company for further growth in 2026.

The fluctuating situation in the Strait of Hormuz has impacted the price of natural gas in 2026. This is central to producing ammonia, which is a key input in nitrogen for the fertilizer Nutrien produces.

However, Nutrien is better positioned than most peers to absorb higher gas costs because of its North American production base, and it benefits on the selling price side when global nitrogen tightens.

NTR looks attractively valued at around 15x earnings. Analysts have a consensus rating of Hold, but recent sentiment seems bullish, with several analysts raising their price targets in April.