3 Retail Stocks to Watch for a Post-Tax-Day Bump

Key Points

• Some retailers may see a post-tax-day bump in sales as consumers look to spend their refunds.
• Target and Best Buy have both struggled amid external pressures and, in some cases, internal failings, but could be primed for a short-term benefit.
• Deckers is capitalizing on newfound market share and momentum in some of its brands.

The confluence of the start of earnings season and a boost to some wallets from tax refunds can make mid-April a time for share price bumps.

Traders looking for a short-term “refund effect” often start with retailers, hoping consumers receiving a refund might turn around and immediately spend that money.

To be sure, there's no guarantee of a post-tax-day bump, particularly in a macro environment where customers are increasingly tightening their belts amid persistent inflation. Still, the retailers below may be worth a look as the tax filing deadline passes, as they could be poised for short-term gains.

Target Needs a Sales Win, and This May Be the Time

Target Corp. NYSE: TGT has had an interesting few years, as shares fell by nearly two-thirds from a high above $260 in 2021 to a low point in late 2025.

The reasons for this are numerous, including inventory management issues, rising costs, a customer boycott, and various external factors. The stock has begun to rebound so far in 2026, though, rising by more than 24% year-to-date (YTD).

The company's recent success in cost management, combined with a major merchandising reset, is helping to drive this performance. Target is putting its substantial liquidity—it grew its cash and equivalents position by 15% year-over-year (YOY) to $5.5 billion as of the end of January 2026—to use by investing more than $2 billion combined in capital expenditures and other growth elements this year.

Sales have remained a sticking point for Target, however. In the latest quarter, the company saw revenue slide backward by 1.5% YOY, missing estimates. In order to see a bump after tax day, the company will have to engage customers in a new way, perhaps thanks to its brand refresh or with heavy discounts.

While analysts are cautious, giving TGT shares an overall Hold rating and tempering the consensus price target, one bright spot for investors is the firm's dividend. Target has continued its long tradition of dividend growth and currently pays a dividend yield of 3.74%.

Deckers’ Sales Growth Has Slowed, But Guidance Stayed Constructive

Makers of iconic footwear and apparel brands like UGG, Teva, and Sanuk, Deckers Outdoor Corp. NYSE: DECK has drawn more bullish than bearish coverage overall.

MarketBeat tallied a consensus Moderate Buy, with 13 out of 25 analysts covering the stock rating it a Buy.

With a lot of ups and downs to its share price so far this year, DECK appears to be trending upward once again and has managed to rise by 4% YTD, above its trailing-12-month performance as well.

For its Q3 fiscal 2026, which ended the last day of 2025, Deckers demonstrated that its sales remain fairly resilient despite external pressures: revenue of $1.96 billion was up 7% YOY, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.33 was a record.

HOKA and UGG sales helped to drive performance as the company has gained market share in its athletic footwear offerings, among other categories. If Deckers can use this trend to its advantage, it could pump its sales as consumers look to spend refund checks.

The performance also bodes well for the coming periods. Deckers raised its full-year guidance, now expecting between $5.4 billion and $5.43 billion in revenue, plus EPS between $6.80 and $6.85. Gross and operating margins are also projected to increase.

Revenue growth has been trending slower in recent periods, but Deckers' valuation appears increasingly attractive. The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.2 is about half of what it was just two years ago.

Best Buy Could Benefit If Refund Dollars Tilt Toward Big-Ticket Electronics

Consumer electronics retail giant Best Buy Co. Inc. NYSE: BBY has also struggled with sales in the face of weakening consumer spending, leading to a Hold rating across Wall Street.

However, the company has still managed to outperform on profit, topping predictions for EPS by 13 cents last quarter.

Because electronics are often big-ticket items that consumers save up for, they may be more likely to splurge on these products after receiving a tax refund. Still, management has predicted that any such post-tax-day boost would be short-lived, as revenue and EPS are expected to remain flat into future quarters.

Investors willing to take a chance on a temporary boost this month might be further enticed, however, by Best Buy's excellent dividend. Although it comes at a fairly high dividend payout ratio, the dividend yield of 6.16% may be quite attractive for investors willing to buy and hold for passive income.

BBY shares are down about 6% YTD, potentially giving room for a nice little boost after tax day (analysts expect upside potential of more than 20%).