Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

$458.96 +3.93 (+0.86%)

Closing price 10/12/2026 03:59 PM Eastern

Extended Trading

$459.50 +0.54 (+0.12%)

As of 10/12/2026 07:57 PM Eastern

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Marathon Petroleum - Analysts' Recommendations and Stock Price Forecast (2026)

Consensus Rating

Moderate Buy

Based on 17 Analyst Ratings

Sell
0

Hold
5

Buy
12

Based on 17 Wall Street analysts who have issued ratings for Marathon Petroleum in the last 12 months, the stock has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy." Out of the 17 analysts, 5 have given a hold rating, 11 have given a buy rating, and 1 has given a strong buy rating for MPC.

Consensus Price Target

$395.38
-13.85% Downside

According to the 17 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Marathon Petroleum, the average price target is $395.38. The highest price target for MPC is $510.00, while the lowest price target for MPC is $210.00. The average price target represents a forecasted downside of -13.85% from the current price of $458.96.

MarketBeat calculates consensus analyst ratings for stocks using the most recent rating from each Wall Street analyst that has rated a stock within the last twelve months. Each analyst's rating is normalized to a standardized rating score of 1 (sell), 2 (hold), 3 (buy) or 4 (strong buy). Analyst consensus ratings scores are calculated using the mean average of the number of normalized sell, hold, buy and strong buy ratings from Wall Street analysts. Each stock's consensus analyst rating is derived from its calculated consensus ratings score (0 to .5 = Strong Sell, .5 to 1 = Sell, 1 to 1.5 = Reduce, 1.5 to 2.5 = Hold, 2.5 to 3.0 = Moderate Buy, 3.0 to 3.5 = Buy, >3.5 = Strong Buy). MarketBeat's consensus price targets are a mean average of the most recent available price targets set by each analyst that has set a price target for the stock in the last twelve months. MarketBeat's consensus ratings and consensus price targets may differ from those calculated by other firms due to differences in methodology and available data.

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MPC Analyst Ratings Over Time

Type	Current Forecast 10/13/25 to 10/13/26	1 Month Ago 9/13/25 to 9/13/26	3 Months Ago 7/15/25 to 7/15/26	1 Year Ago 10/13/24 to 10/13/25
Strong Buy	1 Strong Buy rating(s)	1 Strong Buy rating(s)	0 Strong Buy rating(s)	0 Strong Buy rating(s)
Buy	11 Buy rating(s)	12 Buy rating(s)	10 Buy rating(s)	8 Buy rating(s)
Hold	5 Hold rating(s)	4 Hold rating(s)	8 Hold rating(s)	8 Hold rating(s)
Sell	0 Sell rating(s)	0 Sell rating(s)	0 Sell rating(s)	0 Sell rating(s)
Consensus Price Target	$395.38	$330.50	$283.56	$198.92
Forecasted Upside	-13.85% Downside	-16.59% Downside	-5.29% Downside	8.49% Upside
Consensus Rating	Moderate Buy	Moderate Buy	Moderate Buy	Moderate Buy

MPC Analyst Recommendations By Month

The chart below shows how a company's ratings by analysts have changed over time. Each bar represents the previous year of ratings for that month. Within each bar, the sell ratings are shown in red, the hold ratings are shown in yellow, the buy ratings are shown in green, and the strong buy ratings are shown in dark green.

MPC Price Targets by Month

The chart below shows how a company's share price and consensus price target have changed over time. The dark blue line represents the company's actual price. The lighter blue line represents the stock's consensus price target. The even lighter blue range in the background of the two lines represents the low price target and the high price target for each stock.

Marathon Petroleum Stock vs. The Competition

Type	Marathon Petroleum	Energy Companies	Broader Market
Consensus Rating Score	2.76	2.45	2.53
Consensus Rating	Moderate Buy	Hold	Moderate Buy
Predicted Upside	-13.85% Downside	45.36% Upside	19.25% Upside
News Sentiment Rating	Positive News See Recent MPC News	Positive News	Positive News

Recent Analyst Forecasts and Stock Ratings

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Upside/Downside

Action

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Date	Brokerage	Analyst	Action	Rating	Price Target	Report Date Upside/Downside
10/12/2026	Barclays 3 of 5 stars	Theresa Chen 4 of 5 stars	Boost Target	Overweight	$321.00 ➝ $488.00	+6.41%
10/11/2026	Jefferies Financial Group 3 of 5 stars	Lloyd Byrne 3 of 5 stars	Reiterated Rating	Hold	$433.00	-4.59%
10/9/2026	UBS Group 4 of 5 stars	Manav Gupta 5 of 5 stars	Set Target		$510.00	+10.39%
10/8/2026	Weiss Ratings Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating		Upgrade	Buy (B) ➝ Buy (B+)
10/8/2026	Mizuho Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	Nitin Kumar Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Boost Target	Neutral	$304.00 ➝ $457.00	+3.42%
10/2/2026	Citigroup Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	Vikram Bagri Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Reiterated Rating	Neutral
10/2/2026	Bank of America Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	Doug Leggate Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Boost Target	Neutral	$410.00 ➝ $426.00	+1.43%
9/21/2026	The Goldman Sachs Group Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	Neil Mehta Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Boost Target	Buy	$376.00 ➝ $472.00	+11.42%
9/14/2026	Raymond James Financial Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	Justin Jenkins Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Boost Target	Outperform	$350.00 ➝ $445.00	+9.90%
9/14/2026	Morgan Stanley Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	Joe Laetsch Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Boost Target	Overweight	$265.00 ➝ $453.00	+11.59%
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9/4/2026	Zacks Research Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating		Upgrade	Hold ➝ Strong-Buy
9/3/2026	Piper Sandler Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	John Royall Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Boost Target	Overweight	$344.00 ➝ $462.00	+19.34%
9/1/2026	Wells Fargo & Company Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	Sam Margolin Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Boost Target	Overweight	$359.00 ➝ $400.00	+6.81%
8/5/2026	Evercore Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating		Set Target		$330.00	+7.78%
8/5/2026	TD Cowen Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	Jason Gabelman Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Boost Target	Buy	$357.00 ➝ $375.00	+19.83%
6/12/2026	BMO Capital Markets Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating		Reiterated Rating	Outperform
5/6/2026	JPMorgan Chase & Co. Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating		Boost Target		$235.00 ➝ $257.00	+6.98%
4/22/2026	Scotiabank Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	Betty Zhang Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Boost Target	Sector Outperform	$174.00 ➝ $210.00	-4.56%
7/28/2025	Dbs Bank Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating		Upgrade	Moderate Buy
7/14/2025	Wolfe Research Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	Doug Leggate Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Downgrade	Outperform ➝ Peer Perform
2/4/2025	Tudor Pickering Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	M. Blair Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Upgrade	Strong Sell ➝ Hold

Analyst ratings data on MarketBeat is provided by Benzinga and other data providers. This page was last refreshed on Tuesday at 01:12 AM ET.

Should I Buy Marathon Petroleum Stock? MPC Pros and Cons Explained

These pros and cons were generated based on recent news and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest and most accurate insights. They were last updated on Monday, October 12, 2026. Please send any questions or comments about these Marathon Petroleum pros and cons to contact@marketbeat.com.

Marathon Petroleum
Bull Case

Here are some ways that investors could benefit from investing in Marathon Petroleum Co.:

Marathon Petroleum Co. recently reported a significant earnings beat for the quarter ended August 4, 2026, with actual earnings per share of $17.73 compared to the consensus estimate of $14.27, demonstrating strong profitability that has driven the stock to a current price of $458.96.
Analyst sentiment has shifted sharply positive, with Barclays raising its price target to $488.00 and UBS to $510.00 in October 2026, reflecting a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating and suggesting that the current valuation may not fully capture the company's refining margins.
The company's revenue grew by 53.5% year-over-year to $51.99 billion in the most recent quarter, indicating that Marathon Petroleum Co. is successfully leveraging its integrated downstream operations to capture higher market prices for refined products.
With a beta of 0.54, Marathon Petroleum Co. exhibits lower volatility than the broader market, offering a defensive characteristic that may appeal to investors seeking stability in the energy sector while still participating in the strong momentum of the stock.
Institutional investors are increasing their exposure, with firms like Farther Finance Advisors LLC and Monument Capital Management significantly boosting their positions in the third quarter of 2026, signaling confidence in the company's long-term strategic direction.

Marathon Petroleum
Bear Case

Investors should be bearish about investing in Marathon Petroleum Co. for these reasons:

Insider selling has been notable, with senior executives such as SVP Shawn Lyon and VP Erin M. Brzezinski selling thousands of shares in August 2026, which may indicate that company leadership is taking advantage of the recent stock price surge to reduce their personal holdings.
The stock is trading near its 52-week high of $470.00, with the current price of $458.96 leaving limited room for further upside before potential resistance, raising the risk of a pullback if market sentiment shifts.
Marathon Petroleum Co. carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.19, which is relatively high for the sector, potentially limiting its financial flexibility to invest in new projects or weather downturns in refining margins without incurring additional leverage.
Geopolitical risks, such as the recent deal between the U.S. and Russia for diesel imports, could impact global fuel prices and refining margins, creating uncertainty for Marathon Petroleum Co.'s future earnings stability.
The company's dividend yield of 0.88% is relatively low compared to other value-oriented energy stocks, meaning investors are paying a premium for growth and momentum rather than receiving a substantial income stream from their investment.

MPC Forecast - Frequently Asked Questions

According to the research reports of 17 Wall Street equities research analysts, the average twelve-month stock price forecast for Marathon Petroleum is $395.38, with a high forecast of $510.00 and a low forecast of $210.00.

17 Wall Street equities research analysts have issued "buy," "hold," and "sell" ratings for Marathon Petroleum in the last twelve months. There are currently 5 hold ratings, 11 buy ratings and 1 strong buy rating for the stock. The consensus among Wall Street equities research analysts is that investors should "moderate buy" MPC shares.

According to analysts, Marathon Petroleum's stock has a predicted downside of -13.85% based on their 12-month stock forecasts.

Over the previous 90 days, Marathon Petroleum's stock had 3 upgrades by analysts.

Marathon Petroleum has been rated by research analysts at Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup, Evercore, Jefferies Financial Group, Mizuho, Morgan Stanley, Piper Sandler, Raymond James Financial, TD Cowen, The Goldman Sachs Group, UBS Group, Weiss Ratings, Wells Fargo & Company, and Zacks Research in the past 90 days.

Analysts like Marathon Petroleum more than other "energy" companies. The consensus rating for Marathon Petroleum is Moderate Buy while the average consensus rating for "energy" companies is Hold. Learn more on how MPC compares to other companies.

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Brokerages With Marathon Petroleum Recommendations

MarketBeat monitors more than a dozen sources for Marathon Petroleum analyst ratings, with the most recent rating issued on 10/12/2026.

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Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock Forecast & Price Target