PACCAR Q4 2023 Earnings Report

PACCAR EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $2.70
• Consensus EPS: $2.25
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.45
• One Year Ago EPS: $1.76

PACCAR Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $8.59 billion
• Expected Revenue: $8.48 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$111.84 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +11.10%

PACCAR Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q4 2023
• Date: 1/23/2024
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Tuesday, January 23, 2024
• Conference Call Time: 12:00PM ET

PACCAR (NASDAQ:PCAR) is a global technology leader in the design, manufacture and customer support of light-, medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles. The company’s products are marketed under well-known brand names including Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF and span vocational and long-haul applications. PACCAR’s core business includes vehicle engineering and assembly as well as the supply of components and proprietary powertrain systems designed to meet regulatory and customer performance requirements.

In addition to truck manufacturing, PACCAR operates a comprehensive aftermarket parts business, distributes used trucks and provides commercial vehicle financing and leasing through its financial services operations. The company also offers digital services and telematics platforms to fleet customers for vehicle diagnostics, uptime management and preventive maintenance. PACCAR supports its products through an extensive global dealer and parts-distribution network to deliver service and parts availability across major markets.

Founded in 1905 as Pacific Car and Foundry Company, PACCAR has grown through investments in engineering, manufacturing and international distribution to serve customers in North America, Europe, Australia and other regions. The company emphasizes research and development in areas such as vehicle efficiency, emissions reduction, electrification and connected-vehicle technologies to address evolving customer needs and regulatory trends in commercial transportation.

PACCAR Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Record financial results: 2023 annual revenues of $35.1 billion, net income of $4.6 billion and after-tax return on revenue of 13.1%, with Q4 net income of $1.42 billion up 54% year-over-year.
• PACCAR delivered a record 51,000 trucks in Q4 and 109,000 Kenworth and Peterbilt units in 2023, with Q1 2024 deliveries forecast at around 48,000.
• 2024 market outlook calls for 260,000–300,000 Class 8 truck sales in the U.S./Canada, 260,000–300,000 above-16 ton registrations in Europe and stable ~110,000 units in South America.
• PACCAR Parts posted Q4 revenues of $1.61 billion and pretax profit of $432 million; parts sales are expected to grow 3–5% in Q1 and 4–8% for the full year, while Financial Services earned $113 million pretax income in Q4.
• PACCAR plans $700–750 million in 2024 capital expenditures and $460–500 million in R&D, including a joint-venture battery cell factory and facility expansions in Mexico, Ohio and Mississippi.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. All lines will be on listen-only mode until the question and answer session. Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time. I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

[Ken Hastings, Director of Investor Relations at PACCAR]

Good morning! We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations, and joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer, Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer, and Brice Poplawski, Vice President and Controller. As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the investor relations page of PACCAR.com. I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Hey, good morning. Harrie, Brice, Ken, and I will update you on our record fourth quarter and full year 2023 results, as well as other business highlights. PACCAR's outstanding employees delivered the excellent results by providing our customers with the highest quality trucks and transportation solutions in the industry. In 2023, PACCAR achieved annual revenues of $35.1 billion, net income of $4.6 billion, and an after-tax return on revenue of 13.1%. All three were records. PACCAR's strong financial performance benefited from record deliveries of DAF, Kenworth, and Peterbilt's innovative trucks, record results in our parts division, and strong financial services performance. PACCAR shareholders and customers benefited from the $7.8 billion invested over the past 10 years in new products, world-class facilities, and state-of-the-art technologies.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

PACCAR has achieved 85 consecutive years of net income and has paid a dividend every year since 1941. In 2023, PACCAR declared a record $4.24 per share in dividends, including an extra cash dividend of $3.20 per share. PACCAR's fourth quarter revenues were $9 billion. Quarterly net income was a record $1.42 billion, which was 54% higher than the prior year. Fourth quarter net income included a $120 million tax provision release in Brazil. PACCAR Parts achieved fourth quarter revenues of $1.61 billion and pre-tax profits of $432 million. In the fourth quarter of 2023, PACCAR delivered 51,000 trucks, and for the first quarter of 2024, deliveries are forecast to be around 48,000.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Last year, U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck retail sales were 297,000 units. Kenworth and Peterbilt's full-year deliveries increased from 96,000 to 109,000. In 2024, the U.S. economy is projected to expand. Within the truck sector, the vocational, less than truckload, and medium-duty segments are experiencing strong demand, and customers are benefiting from the superior performance of new Kenworth and Peterbilt truck models. The 2024 U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck market is forecast to be in a range of 260,000-300,000 vehicles. European above 16-ton truck registrations were 343,000 last year. DAF's 2023 European deliveries increased to a record 63,000 trucks. DAF's customers appreciate the industry-leading fuel efficiency and driver comfort of DAF's premium trucks.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

These trucks have a unique competitive advantage in the European market due to an innovative aerodynamic design that features the largest and most luxurious cab interior. In 2024, the European economy is forecast to grow modestly. We expect the above 16-ton truck registrations to be in the range of 260,000-300,000. Last year, the South American above 16-ton truck market was 110,000 vehicles and is expected to be similar this year. In Brazil, DAF achieved a record 10.2% share, up from 6.9% last year. DAF Brazil makes a growing contribution to PACCAR's global success. PACCAR full-year truck parts and other gross margins were 19.3% and were 19.4% in the fourth quarter, reflecting strong truck deliveries and excellent parts business.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

We estimate PACCAR's worldwide first quarter truck and parts gross margins to remain strong and be in the range of 18.5%-19%. 2023 was another great year for PACCAR, with many highlights, including revenue and net income records. PACCAR announced a joint venture to manufacture commercial vehicle batteries. DAF opened a new electric truck assembly plant and earned the Green Truck Award as the most fuel-efficient truck in Europe. PACCAR Parts celebrated its 50th anniversary, and Kenworth celebrated its 100-year anniversary. We're looking forward to 2024 being another excellent year. Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial Services, and other business highlights. Harrie?

[Harrie Schippers, President and CFO at PACCAR]

Thank you, Preston. In 2023, PACCAR Parts set new records for revenues and profits. Annual revenues increased by 11% to $6.4 billion, and pretax profit increased by 18% to $1.7 billion. Parts gross margins climbed to 31.9%, up from 30.4% in the prior year. We estimate parts sales to grow by 3%-5% in the first quarter of this year compared to the record first quarter last year. PACCAR Parts' excellent long-term growth reflects the benefits of investments that increase vehicle uptime and convenience for customers. PACCAR's aftermarket parts and connected services businesses provide strong profitability through all phases of the business cycle.

[Harrie Schippers, President and CFO at PACCAR]

PACCAR Parts has 18 parts distribution centers, or PDCs, worldwide, and is expanding its global distribution network with the construction of a new PDC in Massbach, Germany, which will open later this year. PACCAR Financial Services achieved a fourth quarter pretax income of $113 million. Annual pretax income was $540 million, and portfolio assets increased to $21 billion. The used truck market normalized in 2023. PACCAR continues to experience good sales volumes of its premium used trucks. PACCAR Financial continues to perform well with low past due, the larger portfolio, and excellent credit quality. Last year, PACCAR invested $698 million in capital projects and $411 million in research and development. PACCAR's return on invested capital increased to an industry-leading 38%.

[Harrie Schippers, President and CFO at PACCAR]

In 2024, we're planning capital investments in the range of $700 million-$750 million and R&D expenses in the range of $460 million-$500 million as we continue to invest in key technology and innovation projects. These include next-generation clean combustion engines, battery and hydrogen electric powertrains, advanced driver assistance systems, and new connected vehicle services. PACCAR is also investing in additional manufacturing capacity to support future growth, including truck factory expansions at PACCAR Mexico and Kenworth, Chillicothe, Ohio, a new engine remanufacturing facility in Columbus, Mississippi, and a zero-emissions battery cell factory joint venture. We're excited about the new Peterbilt Model 589, which began production this month. PACCAR's independent Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF dealers continue to invest in their businesses, enhancing our industry-leading distribution network and making a significant contribution to PACCAR's long-term success.

[Harrie Schippers, President and CFO at PACCAR]

PACCAR had an outstanding year in 2023, and this year is off to a very good start. Thank you. We'd be pleased to answer your questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. If anyone would like to register a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star followed by two, and when preparing to ask a question, please ensure you are unmuted locally. That's star followed by one on your telephone keypad to register a question. Our first question today is from Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank. Nicole, please go ahead. Your line is open.

[Nicole DeBlase, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Good morning, Nicole.

[Nicole DeBlase, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Maybe just starting with the outlook for 1Q deliveries, could you just talk a little bit about the implied sequential step down? Like, is that kind of across all regions? And then, I guess, is your expectation that 1Q is the high point of the year for builds, given that we started to see orders fall in December?

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Well, let me take that one for, for the time being and say that I think what we see is strong global markets, right? Australia is doing really well, Mexico is doing really well, South America is doing really well, North America is steady at very high levels, and we've seen normalization in Europe, which is probably, we said the market in 2024 is 260-300, which is 15%-20% lower, and that's kind of what we see in our deliveries in Europe. As far as the slowdown in orders, I'm not sure I can recognize that in, in our major North American markets. We see good order intake and good visibility.

[Nicole DeBlase, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Okay, got it. Thank you. And then just from a pricing perspective, can you guys just talk a little bit about what you're seeing with respect to industry pricing and any expectations for what you guys should realize in price for 2024? Thank you.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Sure thing, Nicole. I mean, I think what we have going on is, and we've shared this many times, but it's worth repeating is we have refreshed our entire product lineup in the last few years. We have really high-performing products that are delivering excellent results to the customers. I think that, the latest recognition of that is the Green Truck Award in Europe for the new DAF products that were awarded as the most fuel-efficient product in Europe. As a result of that kind of performance of product, we're seeing good pricing realization for the trucks around the world for PACCAR.

[Nicole DeBlase, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Thank you. I'll pass it on.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

All right.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question today is from Angel Castillo from Morgan Stanley. Angel, please go ahead. Your line is open.

[Angel Castillo, Executive Director and Head of Machinery and Construction Equity Research at Morgan Stanley]

Hi. Thanks for taking my question, and congrats on the strong quarter. So maybe just to dig in a little bit more on kind of the pricing dynamic, I was wondering if you could kind of expand that into more of a price cost and, give a sense for how you're kind of thinking about decremental and just underlying kind of margins for 2024 overall. I think you got it to 18.5%-19% for the first quarter on gross margin, so maybe if you could, again, give a little bit more color on the full year and how we should see that progressing.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Yeah. Well, first of all, thanks for the comment on the year. I think our team deserves an incredible amount of credit all around the world for the wonderful performance, and we see that continuing right now. On a price-cost level standpoint, Angel, we think that we have good price against cost right now. We expect that to continue as we look forward. Obviously, there's a little bit of normalization in the market sizes. That's really the only thing we see going on, both Europe, with Europe, as I mentioned already, and North America in the single digits, 5%-10% lower market size. But, we expect to see good markets and good price versus cost performance, and as you know, we don't share information on the full years. We'll get to the quarter-by-quarter analysis of things as we get further into the year.

[Angel Castillo, Executive Director and Head of Machinery and Construction Equity Research at Morgan Stanley]

Understood. Thank you. And maybe just switching over to parts a little bit, the 3%-5% that you guided to for 2024, just curious if you could break that down a little bit more into its pieces, what you're seeing in terms of price, volume, kind of assumptions.

[Harrie Schippers, President and CFO at PACCAR]

Yeah, the increase was 3%-5%, and so we see that mostly around the world. It compares to a record quarter, first quarter last year. So at parts, we continue to see that strong performance also this year. And for the full year, we're thinking parts would grow 4%-8% compared to the record year last year. So, and that also reflects favorable pricing and some cost increases.

[Angel Castillo, Executive Director and Head of Machinery and Construction Equity Research at Morgan Stanley]

Very helpful. Thank you.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Thanks a lot, Angel.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question today is from Tami Zakaria, from JP Morgan. Tammy, please go ahead. Your line is open.

[Tami Zakaria, Executive Director of Equity Research at JP Morgan]

Hi, thank you so much for taking my question. So my first question is, I think your outlook for Europe is, is weaker than the U.S. and Canada this year. So can you remind us, how is the margin profile for your business in those two regions? Is a weaker Europe negative from a mixed perspective, given the last couple of years of DAF model launches?

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Well, I don't think I would characterize it as weaker, Tami. I think I would say that in 2023, Europe was 343,000 units, which was a very, very high year, in fact, a record year for us, right? By a lot. And I think if we estimate the market at a midpoint to be 280,000, that's a nice year. I think that what we see is obviously the normalization of sales in that range, but we still have these new products, which are providing great margins for us in the European theater.

[Tami Zakaria, Executive Director of Equity Research at JP Morgan]

Got it. So, so are the two regions, similar in terms of margin profile? That's basically what I'm trying to understand.

[Harrie Schippers, President and CFO at PACCAR]

Yeah, more or less similar. I think Europe is a little softer, so you'd expect some effect from that in Europe. But also in Europe, the new DAF continues its premium position, and as a result, we get excellent margins on those trucks.

[Tami Zakaria, Executive Director of Equity Research at JP Morgan]

Got it. Okay, that's all I had. Thank you.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Great. Thanks, Tami.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Chad Dillard, from AllianceBernstein. Chad, please go ahead. Your line is open.

[Chad Dillard, Senior Analyst of US Machinery at AllianceBernstein]

Hey, good morning, guys. I was hoping you could unpack your gross margin guide of 18.5%-19%. Maybe give some puts and takes of trucks versus parts, and then as you're thinking about, like, the full year, you know, it sounds like parts are going to grow, you know, by mid-to-single digit. You know, should we expect, you know, gross margins in that business to continue that upward path?

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Well, I think what we would unpack, I like your term. What I would share with you is the parts business continues to do really well. Last year was a record, as we mentioned, or Harrie mentioned in his comments, and we expect them to have a fantastic year this year as well. So even in truck market sizes that may moderate a little bit, we see the parts business doing a fantastic job, and that's because of the expansion in new PDCs. It's because of the connectivity that we're providing in our trucks. It's because of our great dealer network, and I think all of the benefits we provide to our customers. So I expect parts to continue to hum.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

On the truck side, again, great new trucks are providing good margin performance and, you know, obviously doing a fantastic job for our customers. That's what we see out there, and that's contributing to the strong truck margins.

[Chad Dillard, Senior Analyst of US Machinery at AllianceBernstein]

Got it. Okay. And just a second question, just on your, your FinCo, profitability. Just trying to think through the, the moving parts in 2024. Do you expect that profitability to grow? You know, to what extent are you contemplating any buydowns or, you know, any additional reserves given, just, like, the state of the truck market?

[Harrie Schippers, President and CFO at PACCAR]

Yeah, we saw some more normalized used truck prices in the fourth quarter, and as a result, the good performance of PACCAR Financial at $113 million for the quarter. If we now look at this year, we expect PACCAR Financial to continue that good performance also in the quarters of this year.

[Chad Dillard, Senior Analyst of US Machinery at AllianceBernstein]

Great. Thank you. I'll pass it on.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Appreciate it.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question today is from David Raso, from Evercore ISI. David, please go ahead. Your line is open.

[David Raso, Senior Managing Director of Industrials and Machinery Research at Evercore ISI]

Hi, thank you. Kind of looking beyond 2024, the notion of a pre-buy. I'm just curious, conversations you're having today, now that we're in 2024, on customers' thoughts of any pulling forward of, say, you know, second half 2026, 2027, into next year. Anything at all about timing of orders to maybe reflect if we do see a pre-buy in 2025? Just trying to get a sense of how you're thinking about that concept, moving forward. Thank you.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Sure, sure. I mean, let me start by saying that it's not just a truckload carrier market out there, and in the LTL, the medium duty, and the vocational markets, we're seeing strong performance of the products and strong interest from the customers with good order intake. I'd also say that from an overall PACCAR standpoint, as I mentioned, our global markets are doing quite well for us. But to dial in a little bit to your question, David, what I think is happening is the good operators, the ones that are thinking clearly about long term, are continuing to buy trucks. And so they're looking to keep their fleet at a reasonable age and buying trucks and continuing that pattern.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Then they're managing that against the fact that contract rates and spot rates are lower than they were, and trying to maintain that balance of fleet age with capital spending. We think that's going to continue. We think that there's an emissions change in 2027, and that the sophisticated buyers are conscious of that and take that into consideration as they make their purchase plans, and that'll have an increasing effect as we move forward.

[David Raso, Senior Managing Director of Industrials and Machinery Research at Evercore ISI]

Just to be clear on timing, do you think some of that desire to buy in front of that would show up in orders in 2024 at all, or is that a little premature?

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

I think it's fleet dependent. I think it depends on where they're at and what they're hauling, and I think how they're doing and how many trucks they need in their fleets. I think generalizing that into 24 might be a little much, but the premise of your conversation or our conversation about does that feature into the later this year, or next year, or the year after? I think there's some truth in that. I think we see positive benefit from that.

[David Raso, Senior Managing Director of Industrials and Machinery Research at Evercore ISI]

Okay. Thank you very much. I appreciate it.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

You bet.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question today is from Jeff Kauffman, from Vertical Research Partners. Jeff, please go ahead. Your line is open.

[Jeffrey Kauffman, Partner in Transportation and Logistics Equity Research at Vertical Research Partners]

Thank you very much. Well, first of all, congratulations. Fantastic year.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Hey, Jeff. Thank you for that.

[Jeffrey Kauffman, Partner in Transportation and Logistics Equity Research at Vertical Research Partners]

I want to.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Our team appreciates it.

[Jeffrey Kauffman, Partner in Transportation and Logistics Equity Research at Vertical Research Partners]

You guys crushed it. I, I want to ask about two kind of oddities, if I can. I don't want to focus on the tail wagging the dog, but I, I think they're relevant questions. The first has to do with what's going on with electric vehicles right now, and it seemed like there was this big push for EV, and you're still seeing that in some of the lighter duty models, but a little bit of a pullback on the heavy side. But we are moving forward with the EV plan for batteries, and, and we're moving forward with investment. What is your feeling about the state of the EV market, and is this a surprise at all? Is this expected? How should we be thinking about framing EV demand for commercial vehicles?

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Jeff, I think you nailed it. Actually, I think that there was maybe a lot of enthusiasm, maybe too much enthusiasm. I think it's something that is going to happen. It's going to happen gradually, rather than rapidly. There's a lot of things that have to come along with it, energy and infrastructure. From a PACCAR standpoint, it's been our approach all along, as we've shared with you over the years, is right, we'd start in the tens, move to the hundreds, go to the thousands. That's the progression we're in. We continue to make prudent investments that'll be timed to what we think the adoption rates are going to be.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

We felt in 2023 was the right time to make sure that looking into the future, we could begin the journey of creating our own batteries, so that we had the most cost-efficient, high-performing batteries when the time was right. So I think as we talked about in the last call, building a battery cell factory in a joint venture manner will give us sufficient volume to supply our needs throughout the rest of the decade as we gradually adopt. And it puts PACCAR in a really good position to offer our customers the best products they can get when they're looking for EVs, keep up with the regulatory, and also take a thoughtful approach to the adoption.

[Jeffrey Kauffman, Partner in Transportation and Logistics Equity Research at Vertical Research Partners]

Okay, thank you. And then the second one, and I'm expecting kind of a "no comment" on this one, but I'm going to ask anyway. The last time we had a certain Republican president, there were some EPA mandates that ended up being canceled and rolled back, and who knows what the future holds? But I think there's an industry think that there is a certainty about a massive 2026 pre-buy, and I think everyone's kind of thinking about that. I know it was part of David Raso's question earlier. Do your political people think there's any risk if there's a Republican victory and, we get a certain presidential candidate back, that any of these EPA mandates might be at risk or CARB mandates might be at risk?

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Jeff, I think you nailed it. We have no comment on that. But, all I can say is that-

[Jeffrey Kauffman, Partner in Transportation and Logistics Equity Research at Vertical Research Partners]

I figured.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

We feel really good about PACCAR either way.

[Jeffrey Kauffman, Partner in Transportation and Logistics Equity Research at Vertical Research Partners]

Exactly. We're going to drive the road we see in front of us. I get it.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Exactly.

[Jeffrey Kauffman, Partner in Transportation and Logistics Equity Research at Vertical Research Partners]

Well, again, congratulations, and thank you.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Thanks, Jeff.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question today is from Jerry Revich, from Goldman Sachs. Jerry, please go ahead. Your line is open.

[Jerry Revich, Senior Investment Leader and Head of US Machinery, Infrastructure, Sustainable Tech franchise at Goldman Sachs]

Yes, thanks. Good morning and good afternoon. I wonder if you just talk about the record gross margin performance you folks had in 2023, was, despite really significant supply chain disruptions continuing. Can you talk about just directionally where your labor hours per unit, today versus their targets, and is there a potential for things like factory overhead expense, et cetera, et cetera, to turn to be a tailwind on a year-over-year basis, as surety of deliveries ramp up and maybe productivity ramps up?

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Yeah. It's a fun conversation to have with you. I think, first of all, our hats off to the supply base. They've done a really good job of trying to work through the challenges, and I think as you note, things have become improved, maybe not perfect, but improved, which is good. We're used to that. And I think as we look at it, smoother factories are more efficient factories. And so as we look into 2024, if we have a smoother supply provided to the factories, we will have benefits in that regard. So it could be a tailwind, as you word it.

[Jerry Revich, Senior Investment Leader and Head of US Machinery, Infrastructure, Sustainable Tech franchise at Goldman Sachs]

Very interesting. You know, another area where you folks have worked through, even as you put up record margins, is higher warranty costs because of higher per repair cost trends. Can you talk about whether you expect to return to the 1.5% warranty accrual rate in 2024, or are there still things that you're working on in terms of per unit repair costs or other moving pieces in the warranty provisions?

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Well, I can say that we have a great group of analysts who understand our business well, 'cause I think that, your question's salient, and it, it is true. Like, we've seen increasing truck complexity over the decades as an industry, with more electronics on them. That contributes to more opportunities. But we do think that the trucks are performing well and will be in that kind of normal range again.

[Jerry Revich, Senior Investment Leader and Head of US Machinery, Infrastructure, Sustainable Tech franchise at Goldman Sachs]

Okay, super. And lastly, on parts, really strong performance in the fourth quarter, and the outlook for the first quarter is certainly higher than what we had in our model and what we're seeing for other companies. Can you just touch on how you folks have managed the parts delivery timeframe and in the first quarter of 2023? Because I think for most companies, the first quarter is gonna be a really tough comp that saw inventory stocking in first quarter of 2023. It doesn't sound like you folks have faced that, but can you just spend a minute just addressing how you folks were able to avoid stocking in the first quarter of last year?

[Harrie Schippers, President and CFO at PACCAR]

So you're spot on, Jerry. We've 3%-5% growth this quarter compared to the record quarter last year. The nice performance really reflects all the fantastic things our parts team is doing, focusing on technology that makes it easier to buy from us, the e-commerce technology, the MDI, where we manage the dealer's inventory, make sure the parts are available when needed. Our continuous investments in parts distribution centers, the strong performance of the PACCAR engine that provide us more proprietary parts. So it just all adds up, and we've been seeing some nice trends on parts over the years as a result of these, and we expect those to continue into this year.

[Jerry Revich, Senior Investment Leader and Head of US Machinery, Infrastructure, Sustainable Tech franchise at Goldman Sachs]

Great. I appreciate the discussion. Thank you.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Steven Fisher, from UBS. Stephen, please go ahead. Your line is open.

[Steven Fisher, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at UBS]

Thanks. Good morning. Just as we-

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Good morning

[Steven Fisher, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at UBS]

As we think about 2024, how much visibility do you have on the truck outlook? Like, how well are you booked into Q1 and Q2? I imagine Q1 is pretty solidly booked and maybe even Q2 at this point, but curious also about the second half and what your customers kind of telling you about later in the year?

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Yeah, as you know, Q1 is effectively full and Q2 is filling in very, very nicely. As we look out, there's obviously customers, lots of customers buy full years with spread delivery, so we see some growing backlog in the second half as well, and things feel pretty healthy.

[Steven Fisher, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at UBS]

Okay, great. And then, can you talk about the cost inflation that you're seeing, both on the direct and the indirect side? Is it safe to assume that that's, you know, maybe in line with the overall inflation in the economy? Maybe you still have some puts and takes in various directions, but it kind of nets out to the overall level of inflation in the economy. And then, if that's the case, is the pricing strategy to sort of just cover those costs, or do you have maybe some additional cost reduction programs aimed at sort of trying to preserve margins in 2024?

[Steven Fisher, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at UBS]

I know you always have some efficiency things that you have going on, but I'm curious if this is the year to sort of step up the cost reductions if you're only able to cover inflation with your pricing.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

I think inflationary. We're experiencing the same things as most people are with inflation, as it's moderated some, and we do see inflationary costs. And, obviously, we try to acknowledge that in our pricing, and we do focus on reducing costs on the product. It's a continuous thing we do, and our teams are fully focused on it, and I think they're going to do a good job on it this year.

[Steven Fisher, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at UBS]

Okay. Thank you very much.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

You bet.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Tim Thein, from Citigroup. Tim, please go ahead. Your line is open.

[Tim Thein, Stock Analyst at Citigroup]

Hi. Hi, good morning. Just one for me, and it's just on the truck business and specifically on mix. And there was one asked earlier about geographic mix, but I'm curious about from the standpoint of kind of product and customer, you know, from an environment where you're selling more straight trucks, which is probably additive, but you know, but also medium duty and sleepers. You know, if those become a bigger percentage of the delivery relative to sleepers, is there much of a? Should we think about that as being, you know, a creative headwind to margin, neutral? Any comment on that?

[Tim Thein, Stock Analyst at Citigroup]

Then I guess just, I guess part B of that is, from a customer standpoint, if you have a dynamic where more your larger carriers are representing more of the order board in 2024, how too does that, should we think about that presumably a more of a headwind, but any way to kind of think about those two factors? Thank you.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Sure thing. Thanks, Tim. What I think is going on is we're seeing that over the last couple of years, we've probably been, as an industry, not able to supply everyone the trucks they needed. And I think that there's a strong vocational market, a strong LTL market, a strong medium-duty market, so we're now kind of able to build those trucks, and we're seeing that as a different percentage, an increased percentage in our, in our backlog. I wouldn't differentiate them in margin. They can both be good margin products for us.

[Harrie Schippers, President and CFO at PACCAR]

On a percentage basis.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

On a percentage basis, yeah. And then I think that as far as the larger carriers and the impact to it, I think that it's really not that different than many years, right? It's not substantially different, so we don't see anything dramatically affecting our model. We've had some of the biggest carriers ordering a lot of trucks, and we've had some small carriers ordering trucks, but it's all kind of within the normal boundary.

[Tim Thein, Stock Analyst at Citigroup]

Okay, thank you.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Yeah.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question today is from Matt Elkott from TD Cowen. Matt, please go ahead. Your line is open.

[Matt Elkott, Stock Analyst at TD Cowen]

Thank you. If I can go back to the order question, the demand question, it seems you guys continue to see stronger demand, stronger orders in North America than the industry orders we see on a monthly basis. Is this still primarily a function of your higher vocational mix, or are you, you know, gaining traction in other areas that we're not, you know, super aware of?

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

We are the vocational market leader, so there is some benefit in that. As I mentioned, too, I think our teams have done a great job over the last several years developing a new product lineup, which is the newest in the industry, which is helpful to us, and I think has given us good backlog. I think about it at the fundamental level, and we get tied up in a lot of different things, but at the fundamental level, our goal is to build great trucks for our customers that provide them the lowest total cost of ownership. When they do that, then they order the trucks, and we think we're doing that well. The products are performing well. They're the best in the industry, and that's contributing to our order visibility.

[Matt Elkott, Stock Analyst at TD Cowen]

Got it. Just one follow-up question. As we look into a, you know, mild decline in production this year, do you think you'll do more vertical integration of engines to kind of cut cost, or is that something that is independent of the cycle?

[Harrie Schippers, President and CFO at PACCAR]

Yeah, yeah. With the, we've built a record number of trucks last year, MX engines, that is for North America, Europe, worldwide, I would say. Yeah, and the investments that we've been continuing to make in our engine manufacturing capacity, that will help us to grow engine penetration in North America this year. That's we're in a good position to grow that percentage this year.

[Matt Elkott, Stock Analyst at TD Cowen]

Great. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Scott Group from Wolfe Research. Scott, please go ahead. Your line is open.

[Scott Group, Managing Director at Wolfe Research]

Hey, thanks. Afternoon. So you talked about used prices normalizing in Q4. I'm just curious, your outlook for used prices from here, if you think we're bottoming yet, or if you think there's further risk in used?

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Harrie, you have any thoughts on that?

[Harrie Schippers, President and CFO at PACCAR]

Yeah, used truck prices did come down in, North America and Europe, during the year. But now, I think in the fourth quarter, North America came down low single digit, and we do see some stabilization happening at these levels. That's why we expect things to continue at a normal level, that where used trucks are maybe at break even, that kind of level. That's, that's, that's reasonable projection, I think.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

You know, another thing I'd add is that volumes continue to be good in that, in that space as well. So we watch both price and volume, and it seems like it's a, you know, it's a big change from what it was, but it's still not at a bad level.

[Harrie Schippers, President and CFO at PACCAR]

It's more normal now.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Yep.

[Scott Group, Managing Director at Wolfe Research]

Okay. And then just more theoretical on this sort of record gross margin, price cost spread, you know, I totally understand what you guys are saying with new products, but, you know, it, it also just strikes me, you know, this is a pretty consolidated market, and, and in a, in an environment like we've seen in the last couple of years with heightened inflation, is it, is it just that maybe you and, and others just got enlightened to the fact that you maybe had more pricing power than maybe you previously thought? Is that, is that right? Is that what's happening? And ultimately, right, is that—do you think that's sustainable? Is, is this ultimately just the new range of gross margin?

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

My view is that the team of PACCAR people around the world, whether in the factories or the engineers or the controllers organizations, over the last several years, have done a fantastic job of building a really robust business. And it's lean, it's efficient, and it produces great products for our customers, and I think that's the driving force between the margins that were generated. It's parts business, it's the truck business. That strength and focus of serving our customers and our shareholders is working really well.

[Scott Group, Managing Director at Wolfe Research]

So in your mind, the high teens is the new sort of normal?

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Well, what we shared with you is the first quarter, we think, is 18.5%-19%. That's pretty darn good.

[Scott Group, Managing Director at Wolfe Research]

Yeah, for sure. Okay. All right. Thank you, guys. Appreciate it.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

You bet.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Michael Feniger from Bank of America. Michael, please go ahead. Your line is open.

[Michael Feniger, Managing Director of Equity Research at Bank of America]

Yeah, thanks for taking my question. Obviously, the pricing in 2023 was very impressive. I know you talked a little bit about the used market. I'm curious, when we look at the spread between your price increases for, you know, for 2024, relative to what you're seeing in the used market with trade-ins, is that spread widening? Just any commentary that you're seeing in the used market that kind of informs 2024? Because obviously the used market was very strong, you know, a few years ago. Seems like it's some cooling, but I'm just curious how we think about that spread between the new pricing, the used, and how to kind of think about that for 2024.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Well, I think what's maybe one of the things you could throw into your factors of consideration is the fact that, in those high point markets where contract rates were at all-time high, spot rates were at all-time high, some people got in to the trucking business, and some of those people are getting out, and that's contributing to the spread between new and used pricing, as you have some of those people exiting the market, it's normalizing the used truck pricing. So I think there is a bit of a larger differential between new and used, and I think that'll reset itself over time.

[Michael Feniger, Managing Director of Equity Research at Bank of America]

Perfect. And just to follow up, another different customers in the transportation market who buys your trucks. You know, you put up an excellent truck deliveries in 2023 at a time where spot freight rates were actually falling. And now that we see spot freight rates potentially bottoming and maybe picking up through 2024, how do we kind of think about what happened in 2023 and how that might potentially play out in 2024, and how that kind of translates to demand for your trucks?

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Well, one of the underlying contemplations should be that, what's the economy doing? As we noted in our commentary, we see economic growth in 2024, which we think as the most fundamental principle, should be good for the truck market, especially as we continue through the year. You put that economic growth against that spot rate bottoming that you talked about, and it should set us up for a good year in 2024.

[Michael Feniger, Managing Director of Equity Research at Bank of America]

Thank you.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

You bet.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Guillermo Herrera from Gabelli Funds. Guillermo, please go ahead. Your line is open.

[Guillermo Herrera, Equity Research Analyst at Gabelli Funds]

Hi, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question, and congrats on a great quarter.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Thanks.

[Guillermo Herrera, Equity Research Analyst at Gabelli Funds]

So maybe more of a high-level one here than the ones we've been talking through so far, but, you know, you've been doing a great job generating cash, and there's a sizable cash position on the balance sheet right now. I'm curious, you know, aside from dividend payouts, how should we think about how you might deploy some of that cash? And maybe just to get a little bit more specific here, could you provide us sort of any commentary on the M&A space and whether, you know, longer term you might be considering inorganic growth as part of the growth story?

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Sure thing. You know, we're really pleased with how the company's performed financially. We have a strong history of dividend payouts, around 50% of net income. We continue to do that. We noted in our comments, record dividend payouts in 2023. We think our shareholders are happy with that approach. We'll continue to do that. We do have uses for cash. Obviously, we are doing this joint venture, which will be something we fund out of cash. PACCAR's got a long history of making strategic acquisitions when they make sense, and we continue to make those evaluations at all times. And having the cash gives us that flexibility to build an even more robust company as we move forward into the future.

[Guillermo Herrera, Equity Research Analyst at Gabelli Funds]

Great. Thank you.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

You bet.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our last question today is from Daniel Johansson from Pan Advisors. Daniel, please go ahead. Your line is open. Daniel, please, can you check you're not muted locally?

[Daniel Johansson, Co-Founder at Pantechnicon Advisors]

Hello, hello, can you hear me?

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Hey. Yeah, we can, Daniel.

[Daniel Johansson, Co-Founder at Pantechnicon Advisors]

Hi, thank you. Thank you very much for taking my question. Sorry, maybe this has already been discussed, and I guess the question is, has a lot of different levels to think about, but thinking about your cost per unit and how that has been going up a little bit here over the last few years, I mean, there's mix, there is more content per unit, et cetera, et cetera. But how to think about that going forward, and especially so given that you had pretty high capacity utilization last year?

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Well, I think about cost in terms of, there's the normal inflationary side of it. I think the other side of it to contemplate is we're building trucks that are more efficient than they ever have been for our customers. Sometimes that efficiency comes with higher purchase price, but as a percentage of their total operating costs, the purchase price is not significant compared to the fuel utilization. So it's beneficial to PACCAR in that way and beneficial to our customers to have high-performing products that are very efficient, even if that drives up purchase price. And then another element to that is, of course, regulatory. As you anticipate future regulatory changes, those typically come with added componentry to meet emission standards, which is also a factor in increasing cost and price.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

Those are some of the things that go into that cost equation for us, and we've seen price more than keep up with that.

[Daniel Johansson, Co-Founder at Pantechnicon Advisors]

Should we expect cost per unit to continue to go up, you think, even in a very good volume scenario?

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

I think they could. It depends on the inflationary state, it depends on the state of competition, and whether there's more added content that has to be added to the trucks.

[Daniel Johansson, Co-Founder at Pantechnicon Advisors]

Okay. Thank you very much.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

You bet. Thanks for the question. We appreciate all the questions.

[Daniel Johansson, Co-Founder at Pantechnicon Advisors]

Thanks.

[Operator]

Thank you. This is the end of the Q&A session, so I'd now like to hand back for any further closing remarks.

[Preston Feight, CEO at PACCAR]

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call, and thank you, operator.

[Operator]

Thank you, everyone, for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines and have a lovely day.

Participants

Executives

• Harrie Schippers, President and CFO
• Ken Hastings, Director of Investor Relations
• Preston Feight, CEO

Analysts

• Angel Castillo, Executive Director and Head of Machinery and Construction Equity Research at Morgan Stanley
• Chad Dillard, Senior Analyst of US Machinery at AllianceBernstein
• Daniel Johansson, Co-Founder at Pantechnicon Advisors
• David Raso, Senior Managing Director of Industrials and Machinery Research at Evercore ISI
• Guillermo Herrera, Equity Research Analyst at Gabelli Funds
• Jeffrey Kauffman, Partner in Transportation and Logistics Equity Research at Vertical Research Partners
• Jerry Revich, Senior Investment Leader and Head of US Machinery, Infrastructure, Sustainable Tech franchise at Goldman Sachs
• Matt Elkott, Stock Analyst at TD Cowen
• Michael Feniger, Managing Director of Equity Research at Bank of America
• Nicole DeBlase, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank
• Scott Group, Managing Director at Wolfe Research
• Steven Fisher, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at UBS
• Tami Zakaria, Executive Director of Equity Research at JP Morgan
• Tim Thein, Stock Analyst at Citigroup