Open Lending Q2 2024 Earnings Report

Open Lending EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $0.02
• Consensus EPS: $0.05
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$0.03
• One Year Ago EPS: $0.09

Open Lending Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $26.73 million
• Expected Revenue: $31.03 million
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$4.30 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: -29.90%

Open Lending Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q2 2024
• Date: 8/8/2024
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, August 8, 2024
• Conference Call Time: 5:00PM ET

Open Lending (NASDAQ:LPRO) is a financial technology company specializing in risk analytics and automated loan decisioning for the automotive finance industry. Through its proprietary platform, Open Lending enables banks, credit unions and finance companies to enhance underwriting accuracy, manage risk more effectively and streamline the loan origination process. The company’s solutions leverage machine learning and big-data analytics to deliver credit-based pricing models that help lenders optimize portfolio performance and reduce losses.

The core offerings of Open Lending include an automated underwriting engine, risk-based pricing tools and performance analytics dashboards. These services support both new and used auto loan origination, as well as refinance transactions. By integrating directly with dealer point-of-sale and lender loan origination systems, Open Lending’s platform facilitates rapid decisioning at the point of sale, enabling finance partners to approve more consumers while maintaining disciplined credit standards.

Founded in 2007 and headquartered in Austin, Texas, Open Lending serves financial institutions across the United States. Over time, the company has broadened its product suite to include portfolio health monitoring and ongoing risk assessment services, helping clients adapt to changing market conditions. With a focus on innovation and data-driven insights, Open Lending continues to work closely with automotive lenders to improve profitability, customer experience and operational efficiency.

Open Lending Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Open Lending beat or was near the high end of its Q2 guidance, certifying nearly 29,000 loans (+3% sequentially), generating $26.7 million in revenue and $9.9 million in adjusted EBITDA.
• The quarter included a $6.7 million negative change in estimate on profit share due to elevated delinquencies and defaults in 2021–2022 vintages, an industry-wide headwind that the company expects to become less volatile.
• Tighter underwriting and pricing actions—raising insurance premiums, enhancing the Lenders Protection scorecard, increasing minimum score cutoffs and targeting price optimization—have driven 60+ day delinquency rates down from over 2% in mid-2022 to 1–1.5% currently.
• Automotive market trends show improving inventory levels (+52% new, stabilized used) and modestly higher retail sales, while high interest rates (nearly 9% new, 14% used) continue to constrain consumer affordability.
• Open Lending expanded its customer base with 13 new credit unions in Q2 (4 large ones totaling ~$7 billion assets) and 10 more in Q3, and added Securian Financial Group as an insurance partner to boost premium capacity.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good afternoon, and welcome to Open Lending Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. On the call today are Chuck Jehl, Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, and Interim Chief Executive Officer, and Cecilia Camarillo, Chief Accounting Officer. Earlier today, the company posted its second quarter 2024 earnings release and supplemental slides to its investor relations website. In the release, you will find reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures discussed on this call. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call may contain estimated and other forward-looking statements that represent the company's view as of today, August 8, 2024. Open Lending disclaims any obligation to update these statements to reflect future events or circumstances.

[Operator]

Please refer to today's earnings release and our filings with the SEC for more information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied with such statements. And now, I will pass the call over to Mr. Chuck Jehl. Please go ahead, sir.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for Open Lending Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. I am pleased to report that in the second quarter of 2024, we were near or above the high end of our guidance range for certified loans, revenue, and Adjusted EBITDA, excluding a negative change in estimate associated with our profit share. For the quarter, we certified nearly 29,000 loans, which represents approximately 3% sequential growth compared to Q1 2024, and we delivered total revenue of $26.7 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $9.9 million. As I mentioned, our results for the second quarter of 2024 were negatively impacted by a $6.7 million profit share change in estimate.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

It is important to note that this downward revision is primarily due to elevated delinquencies and defaults associated with vintages originated in 2021 and 2022, the time of peak vehicle values. Lower performance from these vintages represents an industry-wide headwind and is not unique to Open Lending or our lending customers. As it relates to our more recent vintages, we are encouraged by the early performance of these certified loans due to actions we have taken to tighten our underwriting standards. The initial data reflects a decrease in 60+ day delinquency rates from a peak of over 2% during the middle of 2022 to a range of 1%-1.5% currently. With three consecutive quarters of delinquency rate improvement within our portfolio, we are optimistic about a return to normalcy as it relates to delinquencies.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

As you may recall, the actions we took over the past 18-24 months principally include: increased insurance premiums to appropriately price for the risk we take. Implemented a newly enhanced Lenders Protection proprietary scorecard, which has further improved our ability to predict probability of default and price risk. The new scorecard has now decisioned over 1.8 million applications. Raised our minimum score cutoff to tighten our credit aperture. And initiated targeted price optimization by leveraging our new enhanced scorecard and historical performance data to increase prices on lower performing segments of our business. In this period of challenging macroeconomic conditions, we are committed to protecting the profitability of all stakeholders in our ecosystem by appropriately pricing for the risk and selectively saying no to loans that put unnecessary risk on Open Lending, our insurance carrier partners, or our lenders.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

As we continue to navigate past these lower performing vintages, we anticipate that Open Lending's profit share revenue performance should be less volatile. Turning to market conditions. We continue to be encouraged by the trends we are seeing in the automotive industry, specifically improvement in inventory levels, retail sales volumes, and affordability, all of which have shown modest year-over-year improvement. However, our core credit union customers continue to be challenged with elevated loan-to-share ratios, low share or deposit growth, and low loan growth. First, on the automotive industry. New vehicle inventory levels continue to improve and are up 52% year-over-year, while used vehicle inventory levels have stabilized at approximately 2.2 million units. Both new and used inventory levels remain 20%-25% below pre-COVID levels, leaving room for continued recovery.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

Used retail sales volumes are up 4.1% year-over-year, which, as a reminder, makes up approximately 85% of Open Lending certified loan volumes historically. That said, new retail sales volumes have decreased 7.6% year-over-year. June showed some weakness in new auto retail sales compared to May. We believe June retail numbers for both new and used sales were negatively impacted by the CDK dealer management system software outage. Affordability improved on a year-over-year basis, primarily driven by declining auto prices. Both new and used auto prices realized a year-over-year decline, with new transaction prices down 0.6% and used list prices down by approximately 7%. However, average auto loan interest rates remain near recent highs, with new vehicle loans at nearly 9% and used vehicle loans at over 14%.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

These rates continue to significantly impact consumer affordability. Lastly, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, a measure of wholesale used vehicle prices, is down nearly 9% from a year ago and down for the fourth month in a row in 2024. However, per Cox Automotive, the index is projected to be down only approximately 2% at the end of 2024 compared to 2023. Now let's turn to our core credit union customers. Preliminary Q2 2024 data from Callahan & Associates, a leading third-party data provider within the credit union industry, suggests that industry average loan-to-share ratio, a measure of lending capacity, has declined from its recent peak to approximately 84%. To put this in perspective, historically, the industry average has never exceeded 86%, so it is encouraging to see the industry loan-to-share ratio beginning to decline.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

On loan growth, loans across asset classes in the credit union industry grew at 3.8% year-over-year. Notably, this is the lowest level of loan growth since 2013, indicating our customers continue to face a challenging lending environment. On share or deposit growth, we are encouraged by the third consecutive quarter of improvement. Share growth of 2.9% was nearly 170 basis points higher than the lows seen in Q3 of 2023. To put this in perspective, prior to 2023, credit union share growth had never been below 3%. As we look ahead, we are encouraged by both the improvement in the auto industry and the positive signs that credit unions are well into the recovery process.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

As we have seen in prior cycles, we anticipate that credit unions will once again have healthy loan-to-share ratios and increase their lending activity to fulfill their mission to serve their members. We continue to believe there is significant pent-up demand among consumers for the transportation they need to carry on with their lives. Recent third-party research showed that over 70% of consumers had a stated intent to purchase a vehicle, but almost 1/3 of consumers were putting off the purchase due to high interest rates and affordability. Additionally, senior lending officers have chosen to shift their focus towards prime and super prime consumers, as demonstrated by the retail vehicle registration data.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

Since interest rate increases began, the retail vehicle registration data shows a 12% growth for borrowers with a 750+ credit score, while the near-prime and non-prime borrowers we serve have experienced a 12% decline. As inventory levels continue to improve, vehicle prices continue to moderate, and with a Federal Reserve interest rate cut more likely, we believe we are not far from seeing a more meaningful increase in vehicle sales activity. While we have been paying close attention to the challenges facing the auto lending industry, we have also taken thoughtful steps to maximize our eventual capture of the pent-up demand when market conditions inevitably recover. We aligned our sales and account management teams' incentives to drive new customer acquisitions and certified loan growth from both new and existing customers. We are already seeing positive results from this aligned strategy.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

In the second quarter of 2024, we signed 13 new credit union customers. Year to date, through the end of the second quarter, we have signed 24 new customers, including one new bank. I am pleased to report that of the 13 new customers signed in the second quarter of 2024, four of them were larger customers and in aggregate, have almost $7 billion in combined total assets. As a further testament to our enhanced go-to-market strategy and our sales and account management team members' execution, we have already signed 10 new customers in the third quarter. We continue to believe the Lenders Protection program can help all lenders serving near-prime and non-prime borrowers to minimize lenders' risk and optimize their yield. We have also focused on further strengthening our partnerships with credit union leadership.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

We recently announced that Dan Berger, former President and CEO of the National Association of Federally Insured Credit Unions, or NAFCU, had joined Open Lending as strategic advisor. The partnership is off to a solid start as we are further driving customer engagement and expansion of relationships with credit unions across the country. Turning now to our product and technology, we are actively working on developing solutions that improve the experience of our lender customers and their borrowers.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

We are focused on assisting and providing solutions to our lenders to help mitigate day-to-day operating challenges, including increasing lenders' ability to automate decisioning, which allows our lenders to speed up the decision process, increasing their probability of capturing the loan, exploring solutions that automate proof-of-income processing and other tools to minimize dealer and borrower friction, assisting lenders with capital markets efforts to provide lending capacity throughout economic cycles by accessing alternative sources of capital, and evaluating opportunities to improve the value of our Lenders Protection product by expanding insurance coverages. As I previously noted, we have taken multiple credit and pricing actions with the expectation of optimizing results for our lenders, our insurance carrier partners, and ultimately, Open Lending. Looking ahead, we will continue to leverage the capabilities of our enhanced proprietary scorecard to implement targeted opportunities to drive improved performance and results.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

Now, turning to our insurance carriers. We're excited to add Securian Financial Group as an insurance partner for our Lenders Protection program during the second quarter of 2024. With high financial strength ratings and a long history and familiarity with credit unions and other lending institution customers, Securian Financial is a great addition to our program and helps us expand our premium capacity in anticipation of our return to growth. While we have been focused on enhancing our product and operations to position us for future growth, we have also taken measures to control and reduce costs. We are taking a measured approach as it relates to our cost structure and are focused on only adding incremental costs that drive near-term revenue growth. Our expectation is we will be well-positioned to expand our profit margins as the business grows again by leveraging our existing cost structure.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

Before I turn the call over to Cecilia to go over our second quarter 2024 results in more detail, I wanted to personally thank our entire team at Open Lending for your continued support and dedication to our company, and for delivering these positive results despite continued challenging market conditions. I am encouraged by the early signs of improvement in market conditions and remain confident in the long-term opportunities ahead of us. The underserved, near-prime and non-prime consumers need us and our lender partners now more than ever. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Cecilia. Cecilia?

[Cecilia Camarillo, Chief Accounting Officer at Open Lending]

Thanks, Chuck. During the second quarter of 2024, we facilitated 28,963 certified loans, compared to 34,354 certified loans in the second quarter of 2023. Total revenue for the second quarter of 2024 was $26.7 million, which includes an ASC 606 negative change in estimate related to historic vintages associated with our profit share of $6.7 million, compared to $38.2 million in revenue in the second quarter of 2023, which included a negative change in estimate of $1.2 million.

[Cecilia Camarillo, Chief Accounting Officer at Open Lending]

To break down total revenues in the second quarter of 2024, program fee revenues were $14.8 million, profit share revenues were $9.3 million, net of the previously mentioned negative change in estimate, and claims administration fees and other revenue were $2.6 million. As a reminder, profit share revenue comprises the expected earned premiums less the expected claims to be paid over the life of the contracts and less expenses attributable to the program. The net profit share to us is 72%, and the monthly receipts from our insurance carriers reduce our contract asset. Profit share revenue in the second quarter of 2024 associated with new originations was $16 million, or $552 per certified loan, as compared to $19 million, or $553 per certified loan in the second quarter of 2023.

[Cecilia Camarillo, Chief Accounting Officer at Open Lending]

The $6.7 million negative profit share change in estimate recorded in the current quarter is associated with cumulative total profit share revenue previously recognized of approximately $394 million for periods dating back to January 2019, the ASC 606 implementation date, and represents over 411,000 insured in-force loans in the portfolio. The cumulative profit share change in estimate since 2019 is a -$2.2 million. Operating expenses were $17 million in the second quarter of 2024, compared to $16.3 million in the second quarter of 2023. Operating income was $4 million in the second quarter of 2024, compared to operating income of $15.7 million in the second quarter of 2023.

[Cecilia Camarillo, Chief Accounting Officer at Open Lending]

Net income for the second quarter of 2024 was $2.9 million, compared to a net income of $11.4 million in the second quarter of 2023. Basic and diluted net income per share was $0.02 in the second quarter of 2024, as compared to $0.09 in the second quarter of 2023. Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of 2024 was $9.9 million, as compared to $20.7 million in the second quarter of 2023. Excluding profit share revenue change in estimate, we generated $16.6 million in adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter of 2024. There's a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures that can be found at the back of our earnings press release.

[Cecilia Camarillo, Chief Accounting Officer at Open Lending]

We exited the quarter with $382.8 million in total assets, of which $248 million was in unrestricted cash, $33.7 million in contract assets, and $66.3 million in net deferred tax assets. We had $166 million in total liabilities, of which $143.3 million was outstanding debt. I would now like to turn the call back over to Chuck to discuss our guidance for the third quarter. Chuck?

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

Thanks, Cecilia. Now moving to our third quarter 2024 guidance. The following factors were considered in our third quarter 2024 guidance: continued elevated interest rates and modestly improving inflationary environment and its corresponding impact on the U.S. consumer, uncertain macroeconomic conditions with rising unemployment rate and slower new job growth, lower than pre-COVID auto inventory levels and higher than historical vehicle prices continuing to present affordability challenges for consumers, new and used retail sales volume that remain lower than pre-COVID levels despite year-over-year improvement, near historic high loan-to-share ratios combined with historically low share growth that continues to limit credit unions' lending capacity, and recent credit tightening actions that Open Lending has taken and the corresponding impact on volume. Additionally, we accounted for normal course of seasonality that we see between the second and third quarter.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

Accordingly, our guidance for the third quarter of 2024 is as follows: total certified loans to be between 25,000 and 28,000. Total revenue to be between $28 million-$31 million, and Adjusted EBITDA to be between $11 million-$14 million. We have a strong balance sheet with no near-term debt maturities and generate positive cash flow, which provides us with the financial flexibility to make targeted investments to accelerate revenue growth and position us well to capture pent-up demand as market conditions continue to improve. Additionally, we continue to focus on optimizing our profitability by both accelerating revenue and controlling costs. We'd like to thank everyone for joining us today, and we will now take your questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star and two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star key. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while we poll for questions. Our first question comes from the line of Kyle Peterson with Needham & Company. Please go ahead.

[Kyle Peterson, Senior Analyst at Needham & Company]

Great. Thanks for taking the questions. Good afternoon, guys. Want to start off on, you know, the CDK impact. I know you guys mentioned, sounds like there was an impact. I just wanted to see, you know, kind of, if there's any way you guys could quantify that, and if that has kind of self-corrected into July, like, kind of, I guess, where was there some pushout or just any more color there would be really helpful.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

Yeah. Hey, Kyle, it's Chuck. You know, as we've kind of watched, you know, the CDK outage and kind of that unfold, you know, well, based on the data we've seen, you know, the outage impacted new auto vehicle sales more, and that was in our prepared comments. And it really limited impact on used auto, and as we said in the prepared comments, you know, we're historically about 85% used. So we didn't see a big impact in our Q2 volume related to that and don't expect any impact going forward. Maybe on the new front, but not on used, since it was mainly impacting new.

[Kyle Peterson, Senior Analyst at Needham & Company]

Okay. That, that's helpful. And then I guess just a follow-up on the outlook in the 3Q guide, I guess. Have you guys factored in a Fed rate cut in September in the guide? And I guess could you just remind us how, you know, changes in, you know, Fed funds or, or, you know, the, the shape of the yield curve would impact you guys, particularly on the refi side of things?

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

Yeah, you know, as we think about the Q3 guide, you know, and the prepared comments, you know, in our inputs there, you know, continued elevated interest rates is what we've put in there, you know, in a modestly improving inflationary environment, Kyle. So, you know, we're hopeful, just like everybody, that you know, the Fed's going to take action, you know, in September and begin lowering rates.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

You know, I guess the dot plot is calling for 25 basis point reduction in September, and I think the markets may be anticipating two 25 basis point reductions, and you know, Open Lending and our the consumers we serve would welcome that and it could be a good opportunity for us as we move forward, as we think about our refi channel and volumes going forward. But in the guidance we put out, you know, it continued elevated rates is to answer your question.

[Kyle Peterson, Senior Analyst at Needham & Company]

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you, guys.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

You bet. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

[Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Hi, everyone, it's Michael on for James. Thanks for taking our question. I just wanted to ask on the profit share side, is there any make-whole period with profit share, specifically with any of your financial partners? And if so, for how long and by how much?

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

Yeah, I mean, if you think about the make whole on the profit share, you know, there's a period. In Open Lending, we don't write checks if the profit share were to go, you know, say, negative for a period of time due to high claims and defaults, but there's basically a recapture of that that comes back to the carriers with us. I hope I answered your question, but yeah.

[Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Yeah, no.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

Yeah.

[Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

That's helpful. Maybe just on the refi side, sort of take your comments just in terms of, you know, what you embedded into the outlook. But I guess, how are you sort of thinking about, you know, refi over the near to medium term, particularly given where historical mix was sort of in the, in the 2021, 2022 timeframe? You know, sort of conscious of, you know, somewhat constrained credit union lending demand, which seems to be stabilizing/improving. Thanks.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

Yeah. No, thank you. Yeah, I mean, for Q2 of 2024, refi was 3% of our volume. And as you pointed out, you know, in 2022, I think it was February 2022 might have been the peak at, like, 40+% of our volume, and that was prior to the Fed begin raising rates that we've seen over the last, you know, call it 18 months. You know, as we kind of look forward, you know, I think the most important thing to remember, you know, our credit union customers, our core customer, you know, call it 75% of our volume historically, still, you know, improving signs of loan-to-share ratios, as we said, are improving there. You know, share growth is beginning to build.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

All those are great signs as we've seen through past cycles where, you know, the health of the credit union and they begin lending again. The rates coming down is great for our business long term and even in the short term, but we also have to have healthy, you know, lending capacity at our credit union customers.

[Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Appreciate that.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Vincent Caintic with BTIG. Please go ahead.

[Vincent Caintic, Managing Director at BTIG]

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. First question on the profit share and just kind of digging into that $6.7 billion adjustment. I'm just wondering if you could maybe talk about, since there's been a couple of negative adjustments for the past couple of quarters already, sort of what's baked into estimates now, and I guess what would cause profit share adjustments downwards from here? It does seem like there was a big, you know, adjustment this quarter. Thank you.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

Yeah. Hey, Vincent. Good, good to talk to you again. You know, if you think about, you know, kind of the stress we put on the portfolio, you know, we think about it more as a loss ratio approach, and there's three components to profit share. Obviously, severity of loss, which is, you know, driven, you know, by the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index. You've got default frequency, which is claims, and then you've also got prepay speed. So all of that goes in the equation. And, you know, the vintage we put on in the second quarter, you know, we had about a 60% ultimate loss ratio on the newer vintages, and feel good about that, and it feel like it's adequate stress.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

You know, the $6.7 million that we booked in the second quarter, as we put in the prepared comments, it was mainly or primarily associated with 2021 and 2022 vintages. You know, that's across the industry. Anybody in auto lending has. You know, those are lower performing vintages. At the time, they were at the peak of the Manheim in the used vehicle values. You know, we believe that we're working through those. The typical claim period, you know, for a claim or default is 18-24 months out, and we're getting to that point and past on those worse-performing vintages.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

So, you know, that's, you know, higher claims and default, and then the Manheim, you know, moved down a little more than we thought in the second quarter. But, you know, if you also in the prepared comments, Cox is forecasting Manheim to only be down about 2% for the year, and as of June, it was down 9%. So the Manheim is, you know, and actually went up on the July print, about 3%, I believe, to 201. So, you know, that Manheim is, we believe, stabilizing out and vehicle values are stable, and that's gonna be good for our business.

[Vincent Caintic, Managing Director at BTIG]

Okay, thank you. And then just, following up on that then... Yes, sorry. Go ahead.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

Yeah, and real quick, you know, we believe, you know, as we work through these vintages that, you know, in our prepared comments, that our profit share, you know, will be less volatile. And, you know, Cecilia's points about, you know, the cumulative effect, we can't lose sight that, you know, when we adopted this pronouncement in 2019, we've had $394 million in total profit share revenue. And yeah, we had some really good years there, where during the pandemic and the stimulus to where we had really positive adjustments, and we've had, you know, a few negative adjustments here lately based on those lower performing vintages.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

But still all in, it's immaterial at -$2.2 million, so just don't want to lose sight of that.

[Vincent Caintic, Managing Director at BTIG]

Right. That's helpful. And to your point about, so these 2021 and 2022 vintages, you worked through them over 18-24 months. So would it be correct to think that maybe by the end of this year, maybe by early 2025, after we get through 24 months, that we would have already gotten past the issues of these vintages? Thank you.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

That's correct. They're mostly... Yeah, those are mostly behind it. That's right.

[Vincent Caintic, Managing Director at BTIG]

Okay, great. And then just one more for me, switching to the certification volume. Just sort of wondering if you can differentiate what you're expecting in terms of the OEM certification volume versus the, the bank and credit union volume. It looks like the, the bank and credit union grew a little bit this quarter. OEM shrunk a little bit this quarter. So just kind of wondering if you can expand on sort of what you're seeing, with your outlook going forward. Thank you.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

Yeah, I'd say, you know, on, you know, if you think about the guide that we put out there, I'd say a similar mix to Q2 between, you know, the credit unions and the OEMs that you saw in the second quarter.

[Vincent Caintic, Managing Director at BTIG]

Okay. All right. That's helpful. Thanks very much.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

No, thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of John Davis with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

[Taylor Onan, Analyst at Raymond James]

Hi, this is Taylor [Onan] for JD. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe if I can just follow up on the last question. It looks like OEM certs declined year-over-year for the first time in a while this quarter. So just any color you could provide there on what drove the year-over-year decline would be great.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

Yeah, on the OEMs, on the second quarter of 2024-2023, yeah, I'd say it's just, it's just, you know, maybe the environment itself and a little bit of mix there between the customers and... But, you know, the OEM incentives are, you know, coming back. You know, we put in some credit tightening, you know, across some of our tiers and did a premium increase to appropriately price for the risk. And so some of that's probably baking in there on the tightening actions that we took.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

You know, 'cause as we think about it, you know, we want to put, you know, good loans on the books and, you know, for our lender partners, our carriers, as well as Open Lending. So part of that could just be the tightening actions we took.

[Taylor Onan, Analyst at Raymond James]

Great. Thanks for the color.

[Operator]

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as there are no further questions, I will now hand the conference over to Chuck Jehl for his closing comments.

[Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO at Open Lending]

We'd like to thank everyone, you know, for joining us today and appreciate your interest and support. I'd like to again thank all of the employees, the entire team at Open Lending, for your hard work and dedication and all you do for our company. Thanks and have a great day.

[Operator]

Thank you. The conference of Open Lending Corporation has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.

Participants

Executives

• Cecilia Camarillo, Chief Accounting Officer
• Chuck Jehl, CFO, COO, and Interim CEO

Analysts

• Kyle Peterson, Senior Analyst at Needham & Company
• Taylor Onan, Analyst at Raymond James
• Vincent Caintic, Managing Director at BTIG
• Analyst at Morgan Stanley