Old Dominion Freight Line Q1 2025 Earnings Report

Old Dominion Freight Line EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $1.19
• Consensus EPS: $1.14
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.05
• One Year Ago EPS: $1.34

Old Dominion Freight Line Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $1.37 billion
• Expected Revenue: $1.38 billion
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$2.09 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: -5.80%

Old Dominion Freight Line Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q1 2025
• Date: 4/23/2025
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Wednesday, April 23, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 10:00AM ET

Old Dominion Freight Line (NASDAQ:ODFL) is a U.S.-based less-than-truckload (LTL) transportation company that provides regional, inter-regional and national freight services. Founded in 1934 and headquartered in Thomasville, North Carolina, the company has grown from a regional carrier into a national freight network, operating a broad system of service centers and terminals to move shipments for shippers of varying sizes and industries.

The company’s core business is LTL trucking, offering scheduled pickup and delivery for palletized freight that does not require a full truckload. In support of its transportation operations, Old Dominion provides related logistics and freight management services designed to optimize supply chains, including shipment tracking, operational support and claims management. The carrier emphasizes on-time performance and network density to serve time-sensitive and freight-consolidation needs for customers.

Old Dominion serves shippers across a wide range of industries throughout the United States and coordinates with partner networks for broader international movement when required. As a publicly traded company (NASDAQ: ODFL), it operates under a centralized operating model focused on service quality, operational efficiency and safety. The company’s business model centers on maintaining a modern terminal and linehaul network, investments in technology for routing and tracking, and continuous operational improvements to support commercial customers and logistics partners.

Old Dominion Freight Line Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Q1 revenue of $1.37 billion declined 5.8% year-over-year, driven by a 6.3% drop in LTL tons per day partially offset by a 2.2% increase in yield.
• The operating ratio worsened by 190 bps to 75.4% in Q1 due to deleveraging of fixed costs amid lower revenue.
• OD improved its productivity with higher shipments per hour and sustained 99% on-time performance and a cargo claims ratio below 0.1% despite a 5% shipment decline.
• Disciplined yield management lifted LTL revenue per hundredweight 2.2% in Q1, with ex-fuel yields expected to accelerate to 5.0%–5.5% in Q2.
• 2025 capital expenditures were cut to approximately $450 million—down $125 million from initial plans—by deferring certain service center and fleet projects.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good day and welcome to the Old Dominion Freight Line first quarter 2025 earnings call. All participants will be in a listen only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on a touchtone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jack Atkins, Director of Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

[Jack Atkins, Director of Finance and Investor Relations at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Thank you, Nick. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the first quarter 2025 conference call for Old Dominion Freight Line. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay beginning today and through April 30, 2025, by dialing 1-877-344-7529, access code 394-2957. The replay of the webcast may also be accessed for 30 days at the company's website. This conference call may contain forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements, among others, regarding Old Dominion's expected financial and operating performance. For this purpose, any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward looking statements. Without limiting the foregoing, the words believes, anticipates, plans, expects and similar expressions are intended to identify forward looking statements.

[Jack Atkins, Director of Finance and Investor Relations at Old Dominion Freight Line]

You are hereby cautioned that these statements may be affected by the important factors, among others, set forth in Old Dominion's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and in this morning's news release. Consequently, actual operations and results may differ materially from the results discussed in the forward looking statements. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. As a final note before we begin, we welcome your questions today, but ask that you limit yourself to just one question at a time before returning to the queue. At this time for opening remarks, I'd like to turn the conference over to our President and Chief Executive Officer, Marty Freeman. Marty? Please go ahead, sir.

[Marty Freeman, President and CEO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Good morning, all, and welcome to our first quarter conference call. With me on the call today is Adam Satterfield, our CFO. After some brief remarks, we will be more than happy to take your questions. Old Dominion's first quarter financial results reflect continued softness in the domestic economy and our revenue and earnings per diluted share both declined as a result. We are pleased, however, that our yields continue to improve and our market share remain relatively consistent. In addition, our OD Family of employees continue to provide our customers with best in class service while also operating efficiently. While we have discussed softness in the domestic economy along with a challenging operating environment on these calls for the past couple of years, we have continued to affirm our team's commitment to executing on the fundamental elements of our long term strategic plan.

[Marty Freeman, President and CEO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

While that absolutely continues to be the case, we want you to understand that our team also continues to focus on maximizing our operating efficiencies and reducing our discretionary spending in an effort to protect our operating ratio. Improving the operating efficiency in our network is very difficult to achieve when a reduction in density is experienced. That is why I'm proud that we improved our platform shipments per hour and P&D shipments per hour in the first quarter. Despite the 5% decline in our LTL shipments per day, our team did this while also maintaining the highest level of customer service. We are pleased to once again provide 99% on-time service performance and a cargo claims ratio below 0.1%. We have strengthened our customer relationship over time by consistently providing superior service at a fair price, which has added value to our business.

[Marty Freeman, President and CEO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Importantly, our service performance also continues to support our disciplined cost based approach to yield management. One doesn't happen without the other and we believe our unmatched value proposition will support our ability to win market share.

[Marty Freeman, President and CEO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Over the long term.

[Marty Freeman, President and CEO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

As we win share, our operating density will improve and create the leverage that should help drive improvement in our operating ratio. We continue to believe that the path to long term profitable growth and operating ratio improvement is the balance between operating density and yield management. Both of these initiatives generally require the support of a favorable economic environment. We entered this year with a degree of cautious optimism based on customer feedback and improving macroeconomic data points. Our sense was that increased clarity around taxes and regulation will lead to greater business confidence, investment and ultimately increased freight volumes. We were encouraged to see signs of improved demand for our service in the first quarter and our LTL tons per day in both February and March tracked in line with normal seasonality.

[Marty Freeman, President and CEO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

That said, there continues to be uncertainty with the economy, which can mean that a full recovery in our business trends might take additional time. While we can't control the macro environment, we will remain focused on controlling those things that we can by consistently executing on our long term strategic plan. Our team's dedication to our customers and commitment to excellence has allowed us to win more market share than any other carrier over the past decade. We continue to believe that providing superior service, maintaining our disciplined approach to yield management can.

[Operator]

Pardon me. Ladies and gentlemen, it appears we have lost connection to our speaker line. Please stand by while we reconnect. Thank you for your patience. Pardon me, this is the operator. We have reconnected the speakers and will continue. Please proceed.

[Marty Freeman, President and CEO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Good morning. I'm sorry for the technical difficulties. We had some phone issues here. I'll continue where I left off. What I meant for you to hear is what you know. While we can't control the macroeconomic environment, we will remain focused on controlling those things that we actually can. That is by consistently executing on our long term strategic plan. Our team's dedication to our customers and commitment to excellence has allowed us to win more market share than any other carrier over the past decade. We continue to believe that providing superior service, maintaining our discipline as it is.

[Marty Freeman, President and CEO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

It.

[Marty Freeman, President and CEO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

As it is to yield management, controlling our expenses and consistently investing in our team and our network, we also are uniquely positioned to respond to an improving economy. There have been plenty changes in our industry over the past couple of years, but nothing has changed our long term outlook for additional market share opportunities or our belief that we can win more market share over the long term than any of our competitors. As a result, we remain confident in our ability to produce long term profitable growth and increased value for our shareholders. I appreciate you joining us this morning. I will now turn it over to Adam for the first quarter in greater detail.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Thank you, Marty and good morning. Old Dominion's revenue totaled $1.37 billion for the first quarter 2025, which was a 5.8% decrease from the prior year. Our revenue results reflect a 6.3% decrease in LTL tons per day. That was partially offset by a 2.2% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight. We also had one less workday than the first quarter of last year on a sequential basis. Our revenue per day for the first quarter decreased 2.4% when compared to the fourth quarter 2024, with LTL tons per day decreasing 3.5% and LTL shipments per day decreasing 2.6%. For comparison, the 10-year average sequential change for these metrics includes a decrease of 2.1% in revenue per day, a decrease of 1.6% in LTL tons per day, and a decrease of 0.9% in LTL shipments per day.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

The monthly sequential changes in LTL tons per day during the first quarter were as follows. January decreased 3.8% as compared to December, February increased 1.9% as compared to January, and March increased 4.8% as compared to February. The 10-year average change for these respective months is a decrease of 0.4% in January, an increase of 1.4% in February, and an increase of 4.9% in March. While there are still several workdays that remain in April, our month-to-date revenue per day has decreased 7% on a year-over-year basis. Although we note that this is impacted by the timing of the Good Friday holiday, the holiday was in April of this year, but it was included in March of last year. We anticipate that our revenue per day for the full month of April will decrease approximately 6% plus or minus 50 basis points.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

This obviously depends upon our revenue performance for the remaining days of this month. As usual though, we will provide the actual revenue related details for April in our first quarter Form 10-Q. Our operating ratio increased 190 basis points to 75.4% for the first quarter of 2025 as the decrease in our revenue had a deleveraging effect on many of our operating expenses. This contributed to the 130 basis point increase in our overhead cost as a percent of revenue. Within our overhead cost, our depreciation as a percent of revenue increased by 70 basis points as we have also continued to execute our long term capital expenditure plan. While this strategy has created short term headwinds for our margins, we believe that investing through the economic cycle is a critical differentiator between us and our competition.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

History has proved that this strategy has supported our ability to win significant market share when the economy is at its strongest. As a result, and based on the confidence that we have in future market share opportunities, we have spent $1.5 billion on capital expenditures over the past two fiscal years. We have plenty of capacity within our service center network to accommodate future growth due to these ongoing investments. As a result, we recently re-evaluated each project on our 2025 capital expenditure plan and elected to defer certain projects to future periods. In addition, we reduced the amount of new equipment that we plan to purchase this year. We now expect our capital expenditures will total approximately $450 million in 2025, which is a $125 million reduction from our initial plan.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Our direct operating cost also increased as a percent of revenue in the first quarter due primarily to an increase in cost associated with our group health and dental plans. This resulted in our total employee benefit cost increasing to 38.2% of salaries and wages from 35.6% in the first quarter of 2024. Overall, we continue to be pleased with our team's efforts to control the costs that we can control while also maintaining a focus on doing what is best for our business over the long term. Old Dominion's cash flow from operations totaled $336.5 million for the first quarter 2025, while capital expenditures were $88.1 million. We utilized $201.1 million in cash for our share repurchase program during the first quarter, while our cash dividends totaled $59.5 million. Our effective tax rate for the first quarter 2025 was 24.8% as compared to 25.6% in the first quarter 2024.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

We currently expect our effective tax rate will be 24.8% for the second quarter 2025. This concludes our prepared remarks this morning. Operator, we will be happy to open the floor for questions at this time. Thank you.

[Operator]

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. Again, we ask you, please limit yourself to one question. For any further questions, please rejoin the question queue and your first question today will come from Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

[Jordan Alliger, Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Yeah, hi, good morning everyone. I was wondering if you could give a little bit of color, you know, given all the uncertainty that's going on with tariffs and manufacturing. Is there to think about seasonality as we go from first quarter to second quarter and then just sort of maybe involved with that?

[Jordan Alliger, Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

You know, given we've been in a two year freight recession already, if we did have ongoing slowdown or a recession, would the impact be more muted since we've already been in a downturn?

[Jordan Alliger, Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Is that difficult to say?

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Thanks, Jordan. Are you talking about seasonality with respect?

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

To revenue for margins?

[Jordan Alliger, Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Yeah, margins.

[Jordan Alliger, Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Yeah, I guess margins and revenue, I mean both will be asked, I'm sure.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Yeah, I guess I'll start with the margin then and save the revenue discussion for later. Although a lot of the margin discussion depends upon the revenue. Our 10 year average is 300-350 basis point sequential increase from the first to the second quarter. That's typically based on our revenue growing about 8% from the first to the second quarter, which I don't know that we're anticipating that based on what we've seen so far in April and just the general uncertainty with the macro. I think kind of the way to look at it is if revenue per day kind of stays flattish with where we've been thus far in April, I think that we would expect to see an improvement in the first to the second quarter, somewhere around 100 basis points, plus or minus, obviously whatever happens on the top line.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

I would expect that our salaries, wages and benefits will probably be flattish with the first quarter. That is what we have seen the last couple of years where we have lacked that revenue growth from the first to second quarter. Typically that is where we get a lot of that 300-350 basis points; on average about 200 of that sequential benefit is on the salary, wages and benefits line. Obviously that is revenue dependent. We are expecting a little pressure on our operating supplies and expenses. Some of that is probably going to be tariff impact on parts and repairs. Our overhead costs, which are more fixed in nature, have been running about $300-$305 million in total each quarter.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

I think that's where a lot of the plus minus that we might see, you know, might come in, just depending on what the revenue does. Because that total is going to be there, just depends on what the top line will look like. I think just the biggest variable that we're contending with once again is what the revenue is going to look like.

[Jordan Alliger, Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Your next question today will come from Jonathan Chappell with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

[Jonathan Chappell, Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI]

Thank you. Good morning Adam. Thanks. For the April to date revenue per day, if you could just provide the breakdown of that on tonnage and yield ex fuel understanding there's a few days left and as it relates to that latter part on the revenue ex fuel, have you seen any change in the pricing environment? As you know the tonnage headwinds are maintained a lot longer than I think many expected.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Yeah, right now because we just had Good Friday last week intentionally didn't give that breakdown for that reason really the numbers are a little bit skewed. I think just trying to look through and forecasting out what we might end up seeing. Our weight per shipment has dropped as we have come from March into April. Sequentially there's a little bit more than what we typically see.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

We saw an acceleration in March that was above what we would normally see. If you just kind of take February and roll it forward with normal seasonality, we're about where we are, which is around 1,470 lbs so far in the month of April, so that's given a little boost to our revenue per hundredweight. I think just looking at where we are right now, the revenue per hundredweight and hoping that we'll see a little bit of acceleration for the remainder of the period, I would think for the full quarter we're probably looking at that revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel being somewhere in that 5%-5.5% range. A little acceleration versus what we just had in the first quarter and normal seasonality would put us at the top of that range I just gave.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Again, we will just look at the balance of what continues to happen from an underlying mix standpoint. Overall, with respect to the yield environment, I cannot report obviously on what the other carriers are doing, but I have been really pleased that we have been able to successfully get increases as we have gone through bids. It is not only what we have done in the first quarter and so far in the month of April, but it is really what we have done over the last couple of years.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

We're fully committed to our long term yield management strategy and being consistent and fair in that regard, and I think it's proven to be its worth when you look over the long term and the financial results that we've been able to produce. Our costs aren't decreasing, our costs continue to go up, and that's why we've got to continue to ask for increases. You know, the encouraging thing though, we talked about this from a demand standpoint, is we, one, we've maintained our market share through this period somewhere in that 12-13% range, but we were starting to see a reacceleration in our business. You know, we had two months of tonnage that was at seasonality, and so we're, we're winning share, we're starting to win share and doing it at our prices, and that's encouraging to see.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Obviously we've had a little disruption here like everyone else has so far in April, but hopefully once that gets resolved we'll see the reacceleration in the macro environment that we were really hoping for. Starting to see early signs of the February and March trend.

[Jonathan Chappell, Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI]

Got it. Thanks a lot, Adam.

[Operator]

Your next question today will come from Ravi Shankar with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

[Ravi Shankar, Head of India Equity Sales at Morgan Stanley]

Morning everyone.

[Ravi Shankar, Head of India Equity Sales at Morgan Stanley]

Just on the CapEx, can you help us understand kind of how much of the CapEx cut is just purely related to macro versus maybe idiosyncratic to ODFL.

[Ravi Shankar, Head of India Equity Sales at Morgan Stanley]

Given your own investment pace, as you.

[Ravi Shankar, Head of India Equity Sales at Morgan Stanley]

Mentioned, or maybe even a function of.

[Ravi Shankar, Head of India Equity Sales at Morgan Stanley]

What you're seeing out there kind of broadly in the LTL space.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Yeah, I think that like we mentioned on the side earlier and we may have to increase our CapEx budget for a new phone system so we'll contemplate that afterwards. But you know, I think that we've talked the last couple of quarters about how we've continued to invest in our system and you know, look, we sit down from a real estate standpoint and look at where we think we're going to be long term from a market share standpoint and we always want to stay ahead of the growth curve and we've continued to invest pretty significantly the last couple of years when we haven't had growth in shipments per day. But we are comfortable in those long term opportunities and confident that we'll achieve those initiatives and so that's why we've continued to invest.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Within the real estate network, which is usually what we comment on, we've got north of 30% capacity and we went through each and every project and just talked about is it the right thing to do now versus just waiting until a later period. Those projects that we've got and we reduce the CapEx for, they aren't going to go away, they're just going to be done at a later time. We felt like that would help us, given the continued uncertainty with the economy, to prevent a little bit of depreciation continuing to come on the books. Depreciation has been a big driver in the inflation that we've seen in our overhead cost as a percent of revenue over the last couple of years and the fleet was something similar.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Just looking at kind of where our fleet stands right now, we've invested the last couple of years, we had some deferred CapEx really when you think about going all the way back to the pandemic, all the growth that we had in 2021 and 2022 and trying to keep pace, holding on to older equipment, OEMs having challenges. We had some deferred CapEx in the system, but just going through and kind of looking at where our power fleet in particular stands and what we felt like, we've got quite a few capacity to be able to handle if our business continued to grow and if we saw some reacceleration in the trends like we did in February, March, if those continued through September, where we might be and what we might be able to handle.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

We feel like we've got all three phases of the capacity gain covered with what we have today and that's service center capacity, our fleet capacity, and most importantly on the people side. Our team's in a great position to handle the business that we have, but to handle additional growth that we hope we'll start seeing this year.

[Ravi Shankar, Head of India Equity Sales at Morgan Stanley]

Understood, thank you.

[Operator]

Your next question today will come from Tom Wadewitz with UBS. Please go ahead.

[Tom Wadewitz, Senior Equity Research Analyst at UBS]

Yeah, good morning. Wanted to see if you could comment on how you think about the importance of, of retail, retail customers to LTL.

[Tom Wadewitz, Senior Equity Research Analyst at UBS]

Overall.

[Tom Wadewitz, Senior Equity Research Analyst at UBS]

I think maybe you have a little more exposure than others, but you know, LTL is primarily, you know, levered to industrial. The reason I ask is it seems like, you know, you, at least on the margin there might be more competition for those type of customers. I, you know, I suppose, you know, the Amazon question, if, you know, can they do anything in LTL, will they, if they do, it seems like that would be in retail and kind of inbound to their fulfillment center. Maybe you, you know, it's not your business, you don't care. Also, I guess UPS doing a little more with their 100 way product. I don't know there, you know, maybe that's a little on the margin. I know there might be other players, but just wondering how you think about that.

[Tom Wadewitz, Senior Equity Research Analyst at UBS]

I suppose if there's some impact from imports, you know, maybe that would come through more on the retail side. Just, you know, how important is retail demand and competition overall in the LTL market? Thank you.

[Marty Freeman, President and CEO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Yeah, we really don't see Amazon's LTL offering as a threat to the LTL industry, especially Old Dominion. As I understand it, it's mainly geared towards their own suppliers. I actually see it as an opportunity for us, you know, to help them with their logistic needs. You know, if their suppliers need to pick up the same day. We certainly cover all 48 states and we're able to help them out with that. I don't really see that as a material threat to us. More of an opportunity, in my opinion.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Yeah, you had a lot of questions baked into that. Just to add a little bit more, you know, retail is about 25-30% of our business overall. You know, obviously we still see and have a lot of exposure to the industrial environment. I think that the retail opportunity will continue to be a tailwind for the LTL industry. As more and more the retail world moves to E-commerce, we've seen it developing over time that that's an opportunity for shipment sizes to become smaller and to be moved through an LTL network. Those retailers can leverage our network as part of their supply chain. You know, I think that that will continue to play out. The good thing about many of those large retailers is that many of them have on time and in full programs in place.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

It puts the burden on the vendor that is controlling the freight charges and choosing the carrier to select a carrier that can help them meet those on time and full metrics and avoid fines and chargebacks. There is no one with better service than Old Dominion, despite what maybe some other carriers might tell you. I think it was proven by last year's Mass Air results where we won for the 15th straight year. You know, 99% on time service, the claims ratio that would round down to zero if we reported it out. We have the best on time claims, free service and can help those that are delivering into that retail world and add value to their supply chain.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

I think that's something that we'll continue to see as an opportunity of growth for the industry, but an even bigger opportunity for Old Dominion.

[Tom Wadewitz, Senior Equity Research Analyst at UBS]

Do you think it's right to say the retail is more import levered and a little more risk to tariffs?

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

I think obviously you know, that's there, there's a lot of imported products. But you know, I think that again, it's looking for the opportunities that exist. That's what our sales team, they'll do. They stay in front of our customers and talk about how we can help them add value and ultimately save money within their supply chain by choosing Old Dominion. That's the sale that we'll continue to make. I don't think there's anyone with a better value proposition in our industry than what we can offer. We'll continue to drive that home. You know, with some of these other changes we've talked about, the other long term opportunity for the LTL industry will be near shoring and reshoring.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

If we see increased manufacturing activity in North America, I would say I think that creates a tremendous opportunity for us as well, both inbound product, raw materials and so forth going into those plants. As well as us being able to get the finished good out the back door. Like I mentioned earlier, just leveraging our network as part of our customer supply chains to get product moved throughout the U.S. and more and more of that product has got to be staged closer to the consumer to be delivered in the shortest window possible. You know, in those fulfillment centers they want to maximize the number of SKUs they can have and those are very minimal inventory quantities typically to do so, which is why they want to make sure when they make an order that is delivered on time and without damage.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

I think that's the ongoing opportunity for us. Those two components there will continue to be tailwinds for the industry where I think we can be the biggest beneficiary.

[Tom Wadewitz, Senior Equity Research Analyst at UBS]

Great, thank you.

[Operator]

Your next question today will come from Scott Group with Wolff Research. Please go ahead.

[Scott Group, Senior Analyst at Wolff Research]

Hey, thanks. Morning guys. Adam, the OR commentary you gave for Q2, I missed what the revenue assumption was. Were you saying that that's if revenue is basically flat from Q1 to Q2. I just want to understand that. Maybe just more broadly, if you could just talk about pricing and the competitive dynamic and if you're still able to get like the 1-2 points of price above inflation or if it's getting any harder, more competitive. Just some high level thoughts there. Thank you.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Yeah, so that guidance was based on if the revenue per day that we're seeing, if it just kind of stays flattish with what we've seen so far in April and ignoring Good Friday. Good Friday is typically about 60% of a normal workday. So kind of take that day out of the mix. If we followed along kind of flattish per day, did not see any acceleration in the business, that would put us with revenue in total for the quarter of about $1.4 billion. That would be 5% down compared to the second quarter of last year. If we got on the optimistic side, if some of these things get settled and we can see some reacceleration in the business, probably the most optimistic would be if we can get back to normal seasonality.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

I'm not expecting this right now, but normal seasonality in May and June would put us at about $1.5 billion. We're getting back to closer to flattish with last year on an overall revenue standpoint and don't want to give the pessimistic side because I think we're seeing pretty consistent trends overall, you know, as we've gone really through the month of April. You know, we'll obviously continue to give our statistics as we go through the period. We'll give the full April on our 10-Q 10-Q and then we'll give our mid quarter update to talk about what the May trend is looking like. Kind of that midpoint of just slimming flatness would give us that, you know, 100 basis points of improvement.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

I think you just kind of got to go up or down from there based on, you know, what the revenue performance might look like.

[Scott Group, Senior Analyst at Wolff Research]

Any pricing thoughts?

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

You know, we talked a little bit about that earlier and regardless of what the other carriers are doing, you know, we're continuing to get our increases. That's what was so encouraging is we've been consistent through this last couple of years and because our costs have only increased as well. We've been consistent in our ask. You know, I think that's the sort of getting back to this is a relationship business. We always want to be consistent with our customers and we would continue to do so when the environment is accelerating. We look at things from a, you know, a cost based mindset and we look at each account on its own operating merits and what their operating ratio is going to be.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

We want to be cost plus because that plus helps us continue to invest in new capacity from a service center and real estate standpoint as well as continuing to invest in new technology. Obviously, we continue to have success with our yield management initiatives in the first quarter and that is continuing into the second as well. It was looking like we were having that acceleration in the business given those sequential increases that we saw in February and March. I think obviously at some point there has got to be an inflection in the macro. I think we are better positioned than we have ever been in the sense of the discipline that we have shown over the last couple of years. When things really start to accelerate, that is when the OD model shines the brightest.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

I think we have the ability to put a significant amount of volumes into our system that is going to create a significant amount of leverage. I think it puts us right back on track with being able to achieve the long term operating ratio improvement that we are looking for. We have still maintained that we want to achieve a sub 70% goal. I think we have controlled what we can control during these last couple of years. If I go back to 2022, that was our best operating ratio from an annual standpoint of 70.6%. Our direct and variable cost as a percent of revenue are about the same in the first quarter as they were then at about 53% of revenue. Our overhead costs are at 22% of revenue versus 17% for the full year in 2022.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

You know, once we start growing again, our network is built for more shipments per day than what we're handling right now, but it's going to create tremendous leverage there on those overhead costs. We'll get leverage on our variable cost as well. That's what's going to allow us to continue to drive this operating ratio lower over time.

[Operator]

Your next question today will come from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays. Please go ahead.

[Brandon Oglenski, Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Barclays]

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe following that line there, Adam, or even Marty, I guess, I mean, I know we like to call it a freight recession the last two and a half years, but volumes have been down versus an up economy, even if the industrial side has been soft. We understand that. At some point we just got to call a spade a spade, right? Like LTL is definitely pricing modal substitution here. At what point do you need to think strategically if the market's going to continue to remain down? Is that just what you want to.

[Brandon Oglenski, Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Barclays]

Track or do you need to start?

[Brandon Oglenski, Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Barclays]

Thinking differently about this longer term?

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

I think obviously LTL is a market into itself and there's at the fringe some modal consolidation opportunities that we've seen where the truckload market has been so weak that customers have been able to consolidate some heavier loads into one. At the end of the day, when shippers are moving 15, 1,600 lb loads and loads that have got specific appointment times when you've got delivery, the need to leverage the real estate network that us and other LTL providers have built, truckload carriers can't really solve that need. You know, obviously we've got to keep cost in mind as we go. That's what we do every day. We're thinking every day about how do we manage and keep our cost inflation in check.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Please, when we look over the last 10-15 years, we have been able to keep our cost per shipment inflation in the 3.5-4% range. Obviously, we target trying to achieve 100-150 basis points of positive spread above that. When you look at our industry, we are down about 15% tonnage relative to 2021. While GDP has been positive, I think that U.S. and other carriers have felt the brunt of the overall volume environment being down. We have not seen anything that would change from a big picture standpoint. Obviously, this downturn has lasted a lot longer. The continuous conversations that our teams have with our customers, we are thinking and planning out what we think this environment is going to look like on the other side.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Those conversations with customers are really why we were confident investing in capital expenditures like we have over the last couple years. We do not make those decisions lightly and on a whim. They are grounded in multiple conversations with our customers. You know, I think that is what we just have to continue, stay in front of our customers and continue to work towards what the environment is going to look like on the other side. I do not think you see anyone else from when you look across the industry that is really doing anything a lot different. If our market share was decreasing, for example, then that might be a point to try to reevaluate things. Right now we have maintained our market share. We have done everything that we say we will do.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

It's just in a slow environment, maintaining market share, maintaining discipline with respect to yield management, and continuing to build out incremental capacity to prepare for the other side of growth. We've done all those things while maintaining an operating ratio. We don't like to see our operating ratio up, but we're still, I think, about 1,200 basis points better than our competition. You know, we're going to continue to do all those things, but continue to stay in front of our customers and do right things right by them. I think we'll come out of this on the other side a lot stronger, a lot better, get back to growth. You know, we've got a lot of ambitions in terms of what we think our market share can grow to.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

You just got to do the day to day and month to month and quarter to quarter and year to year execution to make sure that we're going to be prepared for those better days. We're confident that they're ahead.

[Brandon Oglenski, Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Barclays]

Thank you, Adam.

[Operator]

Your next question today will come from Bruce Chan with Stifel. Please go ahead.

[Bruce Chan, Director at Stifel]

Hey, good morning, Marty.

[Bruce Chan, Director at Stifel]

Good morning, Adam.

[Bruce Chan, Director at Stifel]

You know, maybe just to pick up on that pricing conversation a little bit, I don't know if I missed it.

[Bruce Chan, Director at Stifel]

Did you talk about what you're.

[Bruce Chan, Director at Stifel]

Seeing in terms of renewals?

[Bruce Chan, Director at Stifel]

You know, any customers that may be pulling bids forward or, I don't know, even pushing them back, or, you know, any pushback on increases?

[Bruce Chan, Director at Stifel]

Just a quick follow up.

[Bruce Chan, Director at Stifel]

We've got potentially a change in the NFC coming up.

[Bruce Chan, Director at Stifel]

Any kind of thoughts on what the impact might be on yields there and any potential disruption from that change in framework?

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Yeah, just the general yield commentary. We obviously have got renewals and bids that are happening every day, and a lot of times that bid activity increases when the environment's weak and we've had a weak operating environment now for a couple of years, unfortunately. We go through those and just sit in front of our customers and talk about ways that we can continue to win together and the need that we have from a yield standpoint, the reasons why. There's sometimes ways that you can achieve yield improvement that's not always by price. Those are the conversations that we have with our customers as well.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

You know, it could be looking at all the cost-based data that we have and figuring out ways that we can help us save money, be more efficient with our customers that may help prevent as much of a price increase. You know, those are what we try to achieve as we go through those. I think we've been fairly consistent in terms of what we've been able to get from a yield increase standpoint overall for the last couple years. That is certainly continuing as we progress through 2025. Not to say it's not ever challenging, it always is.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

I mean, we're generally more expensive than our competition and so that's why we've got to go in and it's why it's so important that our sales team talks about the value proposition and what we can offer and ways that we can help our customers save money in their supply chain. Not just looking at the, an invoice to invoice cost comparison. You know, the second part of your question, the change that's coming, you know, obviously it's going to be a lot of change for customers, but overall I don't see that as being anything that should change, you know, the yields overall. I think that for us, one of the advantages that I believe we have is we understand our cost, we share that cost and information with the customer and we try to price appropriately based on those factors.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

While the classifications might change and so forth, if we've done everything right, it should be minimal impact to the customer. I don't think the customer, if they change their classification, would think that their pricing will go up or down materially one way or the other just because of that change. For us, we just want to make sure that it's basically revenue and income neutral for whatever change might happen.

[Bruce Chan, Director at Stifel]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Your next question today will come from Bascome Majors with Susquehanna. Please go ahead.

[Bascome Majors, Equity Research Analyst of Industrials at Susquehanna]

Thanks for taking my questions. Wanted to follow up on Tom's discussion from earlier. With UPS leaning more into the lower weight kind of tweener freight parcel shipments, is that business that you or any of your peers are really that interested in, that kind of 150-300 lb weight retail to start with? Do you think that will have a competitive landscape on the industry, and just zooming out, the sort of competitive landscape discussion broader. You talked about retail a lot earlier. Any thoughts on any shifting in the 3PL environment or specific to direct industrial customers would be helpful, thank you.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Yeah, let me see if I can try to remember all those. On the industrial, maybe to just start there, it's still 55-60% of our business, and industrial outperformed our retail and our company average in the first quarter.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Which is not a surprise given that we had seen the acceleration in ISM and we were above 50 there in January and February. Unfortunately, went below 50 in March and my guess would be below 50 again for April. We have seen pretty steady performance there in the industrial world. From a 3PL standpoint, that has been pretty consistent as well. We had started seeing some improvement late last year with our 3PL customers and the business that we manage that have got 3PL involvement that performed a little bit better than the company average in the first quarter as well. That is something that we will continue to watch and felt like we had started seeing some trends of the weight for shipment in the 3PL world starting to increase.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

A lot of 3PLs have got mode consolidation types of tools and software and so forth and we feel like some of that load consolidation that had happened and moved into the truckload world, we feel like that's going to swing back into LTL eventually and that's probably going to be the first place that we see that movement coming back. Because at the end of the day, like I was saying earlier, you know, 5-10,000 pound shipments really aren't made to move by truckload. The truckload carriers don't like doing it. They only do it when the environment is weak and they're trying to get some payload on the truck. You know that that will go away we believe and normalize eventually as demand does overall. That'll be something to continue to watch.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

You know, while that's kind of at the fringe as well, I mean that truckload market is obviously much bigger and can have a little bit more impact on the LTL carriers. I think the mode consolidation there, LTL to truckload, is probably a little bit greater than what happens on the lower end of the scale. Moving shipments that are 100, couple hundred pounds, it's tough to make money on those. When you compare that to our 1,500-1,600 pound average weight per shipment, we just do not have a lot of that. I do not think that it is probably that big for the industry either. I think what is happening with the change with UPS, I believe that kind of goes hand in hand with TFI and separating those businesses and them initially marketing that service is what I understand.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

It may just be that moving back into UPS's house, but I just do not see that as a needle mover and not even to the same level that we see shipments moving back and forth between us and truckload.

[Bascome Majors, Equity Research Analyst of Industrials at Susquehanna]

Thank you for all of that.

[Operator]

Your next question today will come from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

[Ken Hoexter, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Hey, great.

[Ken Hoexter, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Good morning, Adam. Marty, you hit on a lot. I just want to clarify maybe a few things. You talked about accelerating in the revenue to 108 up to 5-5.5%. Maybe just talk about what's driving that. Given it looks like you decelerated into the upper threes on growth rate in March. You know, if I just look at the deceleration you had through the quarter and then your April data, is that implying tonnage is down 10% from down 5% in March? Is that just the timing of Good Friday and thus you're trending straight through it at kind of an upper single digit that you've been at earlier in the year, or is there something maybe leading to the deceleration?

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

I think so just to kind of start with those numbers. This is where mix can have a big impact. In February, our weight per shipment in general was 1,476 lbs on average for February this year. That accelerated to 1,495 lbs in March. You know, that had a little bit of a driver of the growth in our revenue per hundredweight from a month-to-month standpoint there. Thus far into April, we are down to 1,470 lbs. The weight per shipment has come back down a little bit. Obviously that generally yields a higher revenue per hundredweight. I think that that is why we are seeing that metric right now a little bit higher. It is my hope that we will see that weight per shipment continue to rise a bit and the revenue per hundredweight sort of normalize.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

You know, I think big picture, what we always talk about and want to see is that we're seeing consistent and sequential increases in just reported revenue per hundredweight, you know, taking any type of mix change out. That's what we would hope to see if we're going through bids and we do on a day-by-day basis that we're negotiating an increase. Ultimately that metric is going to be reported higher. You know, right now it looks like it's a little bit stronger than what we just achieved in the first quarter, but it's getting a little bit of boost optically by the lower weight per shipment. Just with respect to the metric overall, I mean, that's why, you know, I mentioned earlier that I did not even really want to get into the details of that breakdown.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

There's just still some uncertainty out there with respect to how the month finishes and, you know, where we think we'll end up being. You know, I think that when you just take that Good Friday, that obviously is going to impact revenue and your weight and shipment per day type of metrics when you only have 60% of a normal day. We think that that overall revenue, if you just think about it broadly, right now we're down, we're projecting to be down about 6% plus or minus for April.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

I gave a couple of bigger picture metrics where if we stay kind of flattish revenue per day from here out through the remainder of the be down about 5% for the full quarter compared to the second quarter of last year and could be up, could be down just depending on how each month comes in. I would just think broader brush looking at what the overall revenue is going to do and then let you kind of fill in the gaps from an allocation of weight versus yield.

[Ken Hoexter, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Sorry, just to follow up there, the weight coming down, you mentioned ISM being down again. Is that something you'd expect to continue on that trend just given where whatever tariff impact and pressure on economics, or is that something that just fluctuates on the weight just based on whatever's moving?

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

You know, I don't know that Nostradamus could answer that question, but I think there's so much uncertainty out there right now that it's hard to really say. You know, obviously we're seeing consistent trends overall from just a revenue per day standpoint. You know, that's kind of coming in when we started out this month of April, you know, we saw a surge through the month of March and really going back to February though, we saw good performance week by week through February, a really strong finish to that month. That was really encouraging. We saw a consistent performance week by week through the month of March as well. Similarly, we had a really strong close to that month. Now, we started, some of that could have just been pulling forward of freight and that helped boost the March numbers a bit.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

We did see a little bit of a drop off that first week of April, but it has come back pretty consistently with what we would expect since that time. I have been pleased with our week by week trends and hopefully we will see that continue on. I just think that when we have polled our sales team and obviously they are staying in front of our customers every day, most of the feedback that we are getting from the field is customers are reporting uncertainty as it relates to tariffs. That is just something that us and each one of our customers are having to deal with right now and how they make investment decisions, and ultimately that is going to impact freight volumes. I am pleased to see the consistency on a day by day basis of our revenue per day.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

We'd like to think that we stay at least there at that consistent level and not see another leg down.

[Ken Hoexter, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Thanks for the time. Appreciate it.

[Operator]

Your next question today will come from Chris Wetherbee with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

[Chris Wetherbee, Senior Analyst at Wells Fargo]

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Just maybe a follow up. It sounds like April, maybe if there is softness in April, it was more concentrated earlier in the month and then things have maybe kind of stabilized or potentially improved. I guess I just wanted to make sure I understood that comment, Adam. I guess when you think about the normal seasonality for the revenue per hundredweight X fuel, which I think you said was five to five and a half, maybe a little bit at the high end of that. What is the sort of weight per shipment underlying that? Do you see normal sequential improvement from this 4-14-17? Do something maybe a little bit more meaningfully higher than that. Just trying to get a sense of maybe all the moving parts here.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Yeah, the weight per shipment, typically it's a little bit softer in April anyways, but we're looking like we're down 1.5%-2% sequentially. The longer term average is down like 0.5%-1% and then kind of stays flattish from that point forward. Typically you'd get a little bit lower weight per shipment. That gives a little bit of boost to that number. Again, we're down a little bit more. I'm hoping that we'll see some recovery there in that weight per shipment number as we progress through the period. It's kind of reverted back to average. It was a little bit lighter earlier in the period. We've seen probably a little bit more activity.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

When I look at the weighting of our national account versus local field accounts, a little bit higher percentage of national account which typically has a higher weight per shipment. You know, that's where we're seeing more of a decrease. You know, I think each account is different. When I look through our top 50 accounts, we've got some that have got double digit increases in weight per shipment, we've got some that have got double digit decreases in weight per shipment. The account business may be flat or up slightly. I mean each one has got their own thing going on. You know, it's been challenging to kind of figure this out.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

I think some of that, like I mentioned, really if you go back to February and just kind of roll things forward, we'd be in around that 1,470 pound threshold if we just followed normal seasonality. You know, it was my hope as we were seeing business levels increase and the ISM above 50, you know, I felt like, okay, now we're going to start seeing that positive bounce in weight per shipment that usually is correlated with an improving economy. You know, that was pleasing to see. The March weight per shipment was right under 1,500 pounds. What we'd like to see is not just seasonality. We want to get back to where, you know, we're seeing that sustained increase in weight per shipment that is going to be correlated with an improved economy.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Then that turns into multiple shipments coming from the same shippers. You know, that's when you see the wave of freight that starts coming at us when we hit that inflection point in the economy. That's when everything starts turning and how we start building that density and getting really strong incremental margins on revenue growth. We have to get back to a period of having revenue growth to achieve those incremental margins.

[Chris Wetherbee, Senior Analyst at Wells Fargo]

Got it.

[Chris Wetherbee, Senior Analyst at Wells Fargo]

I appreciate that. That's really helpful. Color and just real quick follow up, the April dynamic was. It was a little softer earlier in the month. Was that what you were saying?

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Yeah, that first week, first week or so just really dropped off from the end of March, more so than what we would typically expect. It has kind of come back nicely from there. That is some of what we see in these periods. You may see a little bit more. Like when I look over the last couple of years, you miss out a little bit on things dropping off a little bit more at the first of the month, or you do not see the acceleration into the last week of the month. Typically your first week is always going to be a little bit softer, and then you accelerate throughout the month.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

You know, when you get those really strong periods, if we go back to 2018 and 2021, environments like that, you're not seeing as much drop off at the beginning of the month and then just real acceleration into the end of the period. Frankly, you know, some of that comes by way of issues with competitors. We were starting to hear some of that in February and March. That is part of the value proposition, always having equipment and personnel that can be available to help our customers when they need us the most. You know, you get to the end of the month or end of a quarter, and I think that helps some of that surge in March where a customer is demanding more trailers to be dropped at their facility.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

If that competitor does not have it, guess who they can call. Old Dominion will be there. You know, again, that is part of why we want to consistently invest through the cycle like we do. You know, I think if, as long as we can see some resolution here soon on what is going on with trade, I think we can get right back to an environment where things can accelerate again. You know, I think that is a big if to hang out there. I feel good about how we are positioned. I feel really good about the improvement that we have seen in our service metrics. You know, we feel like we are better positioned than we have ever been. We just need some help from the economy to achieve what we want.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

You know, again, I think when you look over time, the acceleration in our ability to outgrow the competition really comes when that economy is deflecting and getting really strong. Our ability to add people, to add equipment, to take advantage of all that spare capacity that we have in the system, that puts us in a really strong position to be able to grow, produce strong, profitable growth, and that leads to increased shareholder value.

[Chris Wetherbee, Senior Analyst at Wells Fargo]

Thanks, Adam. Appreciate it.

[Operator]

Your next question today will come from Stephanie Moore with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

[Stephanie Moore, SVP of Equity Research at Jefferies]

Hi, good morning. Thank you. Maybe I think a lot of my questions have been answered at this point, but maybe if there's any commentary you can provide about some end market performance by sector or subsector, if you saw any particular strength within the industrial vertical or you called out 3PL and retail a little bit. You know, whether it's, you know, autos or building materials or the likes, any color there would be helpful. Thanks.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Yeah, you know, we do not normally get that granular, Stephanie, within like all of our SIC codes. You know, I feel really good about the diversification that we have in our business and probably five of our top 10 customers or many of them are 3PLs that have got diversification underneath.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

You know, I think that's always the good thing about Old Dominion is anytime we get into a period where there may be weakness in one market, there's strength or at least stability within a different commodity code. Overall, we generally just collapsed them into those bigger, broad buckets of industrial versus retail. Like I said earlier, I think we've seen some good performance, better than average performance within the industrial world. Typically, the ISM is highly correlated with industry volumes. You know, we were seeing that and I think that was a driver of some of the acceleration that we were seeing in February and March for us.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

You know, hopefully that, like I said earlier, if we can get some clarity within the markets and really it's the clarity for our customers so they have confidence to start reinvesting in their business and building inventories again, you know, doing all those things that create freight opportunities, that's when we're going to be able to take advantage to come in and help those customers and add our capacity and add our industry leading service. I think that we'll get right back to the winning market share like we have over the long term.

[Stephanie Moore, SVP of Equity Research at Jefferies]

Appreciate it. Thank you guys.

[Operator]

Your next question today will come from Richa Harnain with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

[Richa Harnain, Director of Lead Surface Transportation and Airfreight Equity Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Thank you, operator. Nice to meet you all. Thanks for welcoming me onto the call. First, I'd hate to beat a dead horse, but just to clarify, on the April commentary, how much of that down 6% plus or minus compares to normal seasonality? I'm just trying to understand how much we fell maybe below seasonality in April or what you're forecasting and what we're assuming for the full quarter that is that down 5% year over year in revenue. Basically what I'm trying to get at is how much contingency, if you will, is in that revenue guide and that only 100 basis points of sequential or improvement. Secondly, I think it's pretty impressive that you're continuing to get your price increases despite the competitive pricing environment across the freight market. I would think that a tight capacity dynamic supports that. Maybe you can comment there.

[Richa Harnain, Director of Lead Surface Transportation and Airfreight Equity Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

How tight is capacity? Is it still down versus what it was pre Yellow? I am also asking, I know you answered that UPS question, but should we think about that whatever UPS is doing is additive capacity in the market or no?

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Yeah, I think we'll go back to trying to just let one question be asked and one that we haven't really discussed is just overall capacity. You know, I think that's something that we've talked about. We believe capacity has been reduced in our industry and given Yellow's closure and even with the reallocation of some of those properties, you know, we've looked at least at the publicly traded carriers and from the 10-year period of 2014 to 2024, the number of service centers in operation for the six carriers, and that includes Yellow in the 2014 period, is down overall 23%. We're obviously up, and I'm not including us in that bucket. We're up. We've added almost 40 service centers over that period of time and have increased our network 15%-20%.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Just number of service centers even more if you account for the doors that we've added as well to existing facilities. When you look at shipments per day, you know it's for at least those publicly traded companies. Again, including Yellow there, they're down in aggregate about 30%. We're up about 30% over that period of time, reflecting the market share that we've won there. That's something that, you know, we have said before that we felt like when all was said and done that there would be less capacity as we go forward. Yellow was the third largest company. They have I think only reallocated or repurposed about 60% of the facilities that they had in operation before. What was a capacity constrained industry in 2022 will likely be even more capacity constrained going forward.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

You know, in the LTL world you have to have service centers and really you have to have doors to be able to process the freight. I think that is going to continue to be a differentiator for Old Dominion. We continue to invest ahead of the curve to make sure that our network is never a limiting factor to our growth potential. You know, we feel strongly that we have a long runway of growth ahead of us and that is why we have invested as much as we have over the last couple of years in particular, but we have just invested consistently year after year. That is why we could grow at the rate that we did back in 2021, when our tonnage was up 16% in such a strong environment, the other carriers on average were up 4%.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

You know, it's that type of outperformance from a growth standpoint that's only made possible if you've got the service centers to start with, that you've got the fleet capacity, and you got to have a team that can prepare drivers to take on those increased workloads. You know, we've got an internal truck driving school that we've created a third of our drivers, but we've got an HR infrastructure and safety team that can onboard drivers rapidly and make sure that we're not just getting a driver, but that someone that comes in that loves and appreciates our culture and that, you know, the OD Family spirit that we have, the commitment to excellence that we have. You know, all those things are baseline requirements that every individual at this company adheres to. It's why our service is so much better than our competition.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

You know, we're our company, we take care of our employees, we motivate and reward our employees to take care of our customers. That's how we win at the end of the day. We're going to continue to execute on those same values as we go forward. I think you can't put it in a spreadsheet, but culture is really the differentiator of why Old Dominion is so much better than our competition.

[Operator]

Your next question today will come from Daniel Imbro with Stephens. Please go ahead.

[Daniel Imbro, Managing Director of Equity Research Analyst at Stephens]

Yep.

[Daniel Imbro, Managing Director of Equity Research Analyst at Stephens]

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking our question. Marty, you and Adam both mentioned, I think your market share was relatively stable.

[Jack Atkins, Director of Finance and Investor Relations at Old Dominion Freight Line]

I guess, on the margin.

[Jack Atkins, Director of Finance and Investor Relations at Old Dominion Freight Line]

If share is shifting weights from you at this point in the cycle, is it just being one with price or are there certain pockets of better service out there? Adam, you just touched on capacity, but have your thoughts changed at all around what actual cycle to cycle growth is for the LTL industry? I guess how should you or how should we think about actual growth once we do exit this downturn for the industry? Thanks.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

I think I mentioned earlier that volumes for the industry, the data that we get, and this is the entire industry, public and private, is down about 15% versus 2021. Obviously we have got some ground to make up.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

I think that when the industry will, and obviously we feel strongly that we'll grow beyond where we were back in 2021 and 2022, hence the continued investments in our network. I think that when you look at that before we enter this downturn, back to the prior conversation, if carriers were not investing in capacity, capacity was constrained in the industry. There was a lack of ability to be able to grow. I think that, you know, whatever the strategic rationale, we saw more of our competition that were reducing the number of service centers they had in operation leading up and I would say through year end of 2022. You know, that has been part of our strategic advantage. We've talked about the tailwinds we feel like that and opportunities that are out there for our industry.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

We have been able to win significant market share over the past 10-15 years by taking advantage of those. You know, it has also been the consistent investment in service that has put us ahead of the game for the past 15 years. Winning that MassDEO Quality Award is something that we do not take lightly. We want to make sure that we are improving our service and ultimately that adds value, we feel like, to our customer supply chains. At the end of the day, to win market share requires service and value and that is the only way to win. Having capacity, having real estate, having tractors and trailers, that just gives you opportunity to be able to add volumes. If you cannot add value, you cannot really grow.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

I think we have been able to deliver for our customers and that is why we have been able to build our company up like we have. That is why we have so much confidence that we can continue to grow our revenues and improve our operating ratio as a result.

[Marty Freeman, President and CEO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Daniel, as it relates to your question about market share, as Adam stated earlier, our market share runs between 12.5% and a little over 13% and I think that's a product of mode shift. We've heard from many of our customers and 3PLs that much of this freight has gone over to full truckload carriers with stop off charges. I think that's why it moves up and down during a slow economy. As soon as the capacity tightens in the truckload sector, I think you'll see those stop offs come back to the LTL industry because you'll gain better service and you'll also gain a little bit more a better rate. That's what we're seeing as it relates to that subject.

[Daniel Imbro, Managing Director of Equity Research Analyst at Stephens]

Appreciate that. Best of luck, guys.

[Operator]

Your next question today will come from Jason Seidl with TD Cowen, please. Go ahead.

[Jason Seidl, Managing Director at TD Cowen]

Thanks operator.

[Jason Seidl, Managing Director at TD Cowen]

Good morning, gentlemen.

[Jason Seidl, Managing Director at TD Cowen]

Two quick things.

[Jason Seidl, Managing Director at TD Cowen]

One, you mentioned a little that you were seeing a little bit of a pull forward. I was wondering if you could put some numbers behind that.

[Jason Seidl, Managing Director at TD Cowen]

On the CapEx side, if you exclude some of your project work, what percent is that sort of equipment?

[Jason Seidl, Managing Director at TD Cowen]

Purchases down on a year-over-year basis?

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Yeah, so I don't know that I can say that there was any pull forward per se, but my point was that, you know, that acceleration that we saw really throughout the month of March, I mean that's to grow our tons 4.8%. That sequential acceleration, that's been as strong a performance that we've had on a month over month basis really since when Yellow closed their doors. Going back for really the early part of 2022. You know, I think that just given the overall macro and some conversation and then a little bit of that drop off that we saw the first week of April just made me think that, you know, there may have been some acceleration into that end of the period that kind of helped, you know, with that, that growth there.

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

You know, nothing scientific necessarily to put behind the, you know, the number or whatnot. Just thinking through some of the bigger kind of broad factors, if you will.

[Jason Seidl, Managing Director at TD Cowen]

Adam, was there any more strength on the consumer side in March versus industrial?

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

No, I think like I said, we saw better activity overall through the quarter with industrial versus retail. Okay. And the CapEx? Yeah, we spent I think about $750 million last year. You know, pretty, pretty. We had already planned to spend less this year when we started the year and the initial plan was $575 million. Just cutting that back to $450 million is, I had not run the math, but pretty sizable decrease versus what we just spent last year and a little bit lower than we typically spend, 10%-15% of our revenue on capital expenditures every year. We have had some periods before where we have been below that threshold, but you know, should be below that for this year.

[Jason Seidl, Managing Director at TD Cowen]

Out of that $450 million, how much is equipment?

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

I am sorry?

[Jason Seidl, Managing Director at TD Cowen]

How much is equipment?

[Adam Satterfield, CFO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

We have $210 million in total for real estate of that $450 million now, and $190 million is for equipment and that was previously $225 million. Most of that is just power equipment like I mentioned earlier, and then continuing to spend $50 million on it and other assets.

[Jason Seidl, Managing Director at TD Cowen]

I appreciate the time as always, gentlemen.

[Operator]

This will conclude our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Marty Freeman for any closing remarks.

[Marty Freeman, President and CEO at Old Dominion Freight Line]

Thank you all for your participation today. We appreciate your questions, and please feel free to give us a call if you have anything further. Thank you and have a great day.

[Operator]

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

Participants

Executives

• Adam Satterfield, CFO
• Jack Atkins, Director of Finance and Investor Relations
• Marty Freeman, President and CEO

Analysts

• Bascome Majors, Equity Research Analyst of Industrials at Susquehanna
• Jordan Alliger, Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs
• Brandon Oglenski, Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Barclays
• Bruce Chan, Director at Stifel
• Richa Harnain, Director of Lead Surface Transportation and Airfreight Equity Analyst at Deutsche Bank
• Tom Wadewitz, Senior Equity Research Analyst at UBS
• Jason Seidl, Managing Director at TD Cowen
• Scott Group, Senior Analyst at Wolff Research
• Ken Hoexter, Managing Director at Bank of America
• Chris Wetherbee, Senior Analyst at Wells Fargo
• Daniel Imbro, Managing Director of Equity Research Analyst at Stephens
• Stephanie Moore, SVP of Equity Research at Jefferies
• Ravi Shankar, Head of India Equity Sales at Morgan Stanley
• Jonathan Chappell, Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI