PennyMac Financial Services Q1 2026 Earnings Report

PennyMac Financial Services EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $2.19
• Consensus EPS: $2.22
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$0.03
• One Year Ago EPS: $1.42

PennyMac Financial Services Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $544.98 million
• Expected Revenue: $546.17 million
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$1.19 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +26.50%

PennyMac Financial Services Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q1 2026
• Date: 5/5/2026
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Tuesday, May 5, 2026
• Conference Call Time: 5:00PM ET

PennyMac Financial Services (NYSE:PFSI) (NYSE: PFSI) is a leading mortgage banking company based in Westlake Village, California. The firm operates through two primary business segments: Production and Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR). In its Production segment, PennyMac originates residential mortgage loans through retail, wholesale and correspondent channels, focusing on both purchase and refinance transactions. The MSR segment involves the acquisition and servicing of mortgage loans, whereby the company earns fees for managing loan portfolios on behalf of investors.

Since its founding in 2008, PennyMac has grown through a combination of organic origination and strategic acquisition of servicing rights, positioning itself as one of the largest residential mortgage loan servicers in the United States. The company completed its initial public offering in 2013 and has since expanded its capabilities to offer a full suite of mortgage products, including government-insured loans, conventional conforming loans and customized refinancing options. PennyMac’s platform integrates underwriting, closing, loan management and customer service functions to provide a streamlined borrower experience.

PennyMac serves homeowners and homebuyers in all 50 states, leveraging advanced technology and a nationwide network of fulfillment centers. The company’s leadership team is led by President and CEO David Spector, who brings extensive experience in mortgage finance and capital markets. Under his direction, PennyMac has strengthened its risk management practices, enhanced its digital origination platform and maintained a diversified servicing portfolio. Through its focus on operational efficiency and customer satisfaction, PennyMac continues to be a significant participant in the U.S. residential mortgage market.

PennyMac Financial Services Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Neutral Sentiment: PennyMac reported Q1 GAAP net income of $82 million ($1.53/share) and adjusted net income of $118 million ($2.19/share) with an adjusted ROE of 11%, and lowered second‑half ROE guidance to the low‑to‑mid teens due to accelerated tech spending and weaker origination demand.
• Positive Sentiment: The Production segment posted its strongest pre‑tax income in nearly five years (pre‑tax income $134 million), led by meaningful growth in Consumer and Broker Direct channels and higher revenue per loan.
• Positive Sentiment: The company completed rollout of the Vesta origination platform and is deploying AI agents to reduce manual tasks and unit costs, expecting material efficiency and margin benefits beginning in H2 2026.
• Negative Sentiment: MSR and hedge volatility weighed on results—valuation‑related MSR declines (~$44 million) and hedge fair value losses (~$221 million) plus elevated hedge costs—while leverage rose to 4.0x total debt/equity and 1.7x non‑funding leverage.
• Positive Sentiment: Management is on track to close the Cenlar subservicing acquisition in H2 (expected to add scale and diversification) and returned capital this quarter via a $50 million share repurchase and a $0.30/share dividend.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good afternoon, and welcome to PennyMac Financial Services, Inc.'s First Quarter 2026 Earnings call. Additional earnings materials, including presentation slides that will be referred to in this call, as well as an Excel file with supplemental information, are available on PennyMac Financial website at pfsi.pennymac.com. Before we begin, let me remind you that this call may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks identified on slide two of the earnings presentation that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially as well as non-GAAP measures that have been reconciled to their GAAP equivalent in the earnings materials. Now I'd like to introduce David Spector, PennyMac Financial's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Dan Perotti, PennyMac Financial's Chief Financial Officer.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, thank you to everyone for participating in our first quarter 2026 earnings call. As shown on slide three, PennyMac Financial generated net income of $82 million in the first quarter for $1.53 in earnings per diluted share for an 8% annualized return on equity. Excluding the impact of valuation-related changes and transaction expenses related to our acquisition of Cenlar sub-servicing business, adjusted EPS was $2.19 per diluted share on an 11% annualized adjusted return on equity. As Dan will expand upon, we continue to optimize our hedging strategies to converge GAAP and adjusted ROEs. While our adjusted return on equity this quarter remained below our longer-term expectations, we remain intensely focused on maximizing returns on invested capital over the near long term.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

I am also optimistic regarding the underlying trends in our business, particularly higher recapture rates in consumer direct channel coupled with increasing revenue per loan. In addition to these positive trends, I will also address initiatives we currently have underway later in this call. Our optimism is most evident in the production sector, where we are strategically growing in areas that will optimize returns on capital in what remains a dynamic and fragmented market. Specifically, in the correspondent channel, we are leveraging our leadership position to exercise rigorous pricing discipline on the related MSRs while driving an increase in margins across various products. This pricing discipline, combined with continued growth in our consumer and broker direct channels, led to production segment generating its highest level of pre-tax income in nearly five years.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

In addition, we have three distinct production channels, correspondent, broker direct, and consumer direct, all of which are operating at significant scale. This diversified platform provides us with multiple complementary avenues for sustainable growth and a unique ability to shift our focus and resources to the channel that offers the most attractive risk-adjusted returns. Turning to slide four, let's review a few additional business updates. During the quarter, we repurchased 560,000 shares, or 1% of our outstanding stock, for $50 million at a weighted average price of $89.28 per share, as we saw tremendous value in the stock at these price levels. I am also pleased to report that we remain on track to close the acquisition of Cenlar sub-servicing business in the second half of the year.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Our teams are collaborating effectively to ensure seamless integration of Cenlar sub-servicing business into our operations. As outlined in our investor update presentation in February, once fully integrated, we expect strong returns from this acquisition, and we are excited about the increase in scale and diversification that this transaction will provide. Turning to our consumer direct origination channel, the deployment of Vesta has been complete for new loan originations and has begun to drive operating efficiencies through the introduction of AI agents and the resulting reduction in previously manual tasks. On recapture, I am also pleased with the meaningful progress we have already achieved with consumer direct origination volumes up meaningfully from recent periods and conventional first lien refinance recapture rates up 5 percentage points from the prior quarter to 22%.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

This momentum has continued into the second quarter with conventional first lien recap-refinance recapture rates running near 30% in the month of April. Turning to slide six, our mortgage banking operating pre-tax income was $190 million for the quarter, up from $173 million in the fourth quarter. As we look ahead, we expect adjusted ROE to remain near current levels in the second quarter before increasing to the low- to mid-teens in the second half of 2026 as we realize the benefits of technology and efficiency enhancements. As just mentioned, we have lowered our ROE guidance from the mid- to high-teens to low- to mid-teens in the second half of the year due to the two main factors.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

First, we've decided to meaningfully accelerate our technology investments to drive significant operational efficiencies in both production and servicing. Second, we expect less origination demand with interest rates at current levels. Over the medium to long term, we continue to expect PFSI to achieve ROEs in the high teens to low 20% range. Which we expect to achieve through the realization of these technology investments and increasing scale. On slide seven, we highlight the future opportunity within our consumer direct channel when rates do decline, as well as our first lien refinance recapture rates over the five most recent quarters. As of March 31st, we serviced a combined $320 billion in UPB of loans with no rates above 5%, of which more than half had no rates above 6%.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

As you can see on the charts in the middle of the page, government refinance originations from our portfolio in the consumer direct channel are nearly double first quarter 2025 loans. Our first lien refinance recapture rates remain strong in the 50% range. We are seeing even more success in conventional loans, where volumes are up more than fivefold from levels reported in the first quarter of 2025, driven by the previously noted improvement in first lien recapture rates to 22% from 17% in the prior quarter. As I mentioned earlier, in April, we achieved conventional first lien refinance recapture rates of nearly 30%.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

We also completed the transition to Vesta, our new consumer direct loan origination system during the first quarter. We are in the process of working through the pipeline of loans originated on the old system, which we expect to have completed in the second quarter. This new system has already substantially improved the customer experience. I am very pleased with these initial results. I expect to realize material benefits of our new platform in the second half of this year. The early success we are seeing is a direct by-product of our ability to reduce cost per loan and the days to close, as well as leverage real-time data to engage borrowers more effectively. We have also started the successful release of AI agents within our fulfillment process across multiple products.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

We are rapidly moving towards a model with exceptionally low manual intervention and in some cases will have removed human touchpoints entirely, thereby improving the customer experience, further increasing recapture rates and driving higher operating margins. Furthermore, we are focused on the implementation of additional specific tech-enabled solutions, ranging from AI-driven lead prioritization to enhanced digital self-service. Turning to slide eight, you can see how our state-of-the-art technology platform is driving significant operating leverage and superior unit economics across the entire enterprise. By combining our technology foundation with our scale advantages, we are driving unit cost to historic lows. As noted on the charts, our direct expenses within the consumer direct channel dropped 26% compared to 2022 lows.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Similarly, in our servicing segment, our operating expenses as a percentage of total servicing UPB have dropped 24% to 4.5 basis points as we continue to enhance workforce productivity and automate complex tasks through the deployment of sophisticated technology. In our corporate and other segment, we are clearly achieving more with less. By leaning into a unified technology foundation, we have reduced compensation as a percentage of adjusted revenue to 3.7% from 6.5% in 2022, a decrease of 44%. While these results are compelling, we are in a new stage of transformation and AI implementation with significant runway ahead to further optimize our platform, reduce unit cost, and capture additional economies of scale.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

By combining our pricing and capital allocation disciplines with a best-in-class technology infrastructure that is already delivering record low unit costs, we are building a more resilient and profitable enterprise. We have the team, the technology, and the scale necessary to drive toward our long-term target of high teens to low 20% ROEs. I will now turn it over to Dan, who will review the drivers of PFSI's first quarter financial performance.

[Dan Perotti, CFO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Thank you, David. PFSI reported net income of $82 million in the first quarter, for $1.53 in earnings per share for an annualized ROE of 8%. Adjusted net income was $118 million, for $2.19 in adjusted earnings per share for an annualized adjusted ROE of 11%. The $0.66 difference between our GAAP and adjusted EPS was driven by two items. First, $44 million of fair value declines on MSRs, net of hedges and costs. This includes principal-only stripped MBS, valuation-related accretion changes, and provision for losses on active loans. Second, $3 million of expenses related to our acquisition of Cenlar. PFSI board of directors declared a first quarter common share dividend of $0.30 per share.

[Dan Perotti, CFO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

As David mentioned, we repurchased 560,000 shares of common stock for $50 million. On slides 10 and 11, beginning with our production segment, pre-tax income was $134 million, more than double from the same quarter a year ago and up 5% from the prior quarter. As David mentioned, the increase from the prior quarter was driven primarily by strong execution in consumer and broker direct, which combined represented 75% of PFSI's account revenues. Total acquisition and origination volumes were $37 billion in unpaid principal balance, down 12% from the prior quarter. Of this, $34 billion was for PFSI's own accounts and $3 billion was fee-based fulfillment activity for PMT. Total lock volumes were $44 billion in UPB, down 4% from the prior quarter. PennyMac maintained its leading position in correspondent lending.

[Dan Perotti, CFO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Correspondent acquisitions were $24 billion in the first quarter, down 20% from the prior quarter. While our platform continues to drive profitable and sustainable growth, we are refining our production mix to better withstand market volatility and maximize the long-term value of our servicing portfolio. Correspondent channel margins were 28 basis points, up from 25 basis points in the prior quarter due to a shift in mix towards higher margin government loans given the increased levels of competition from the GSE cash window, combined with a meaningful increase in average revenue per loan. Under its fulfillment agreement, PMT retains the right to purchase all non-government correspondent loan production from PFSI. In the first quarter, PMT purchased 18% of total conventional conforming correspondent production and 100% of non-conforming correspondent production. Both percentages essentially unchanged from the prior quarter.

[Dan Perotti, CFO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

In Broker Direct, we continue to see momentum as we position PennyMac as a strong alternative to channel leaders. Originations were up 3% and locks were up 26% from the prior quarter. The number of brokers approved to do business with us continues to grow, up 12% from the same time a year ago, reflecting the growing number of brokers who are increasingly leveraging our distinct value proposition. The revenue contribution from Broker Direct was up from the prior quarter due to higher volumes. Though margins were down slightly, revenue per loan increased, reflecting an increase in our average loan balance. Additionally, we recently launched a non-QM product within our Broker Direct channel and are already seeing strong initial take-up and positive traction from our broker partners as they leverage our expanded product suite.

[Dan Perotti, CFO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Lots of non-QM loans in our broker channel were $151 million in UPB during the first quarter, and momentum continued in April with $157 million in UPB of locks. In Consumer Direct, volumes were up, with originations up 15% and locks up 24% from the prior quarter, driving revenue contribution 30% higher than in the prior quarter. While margins were down slightly, revenue per loan increased sequentially across our conventional jumbo and closed-end second products, indicating higher average loan balances for those loan types. Post-lock activities across the channels contributed $13 million to pre-tax income, down from $34 million in the prior quarter, which benefited from strong secondary market execution relative to initial pricing. Production expenses, net of loan origination expense, increased 11% from the prior quarter due to higher volumes in direct lending.

[Dan Perotti, CFO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Turning to servicing, on slides 12 and 13, our total servicing portfolio UPB ended the quarter at $720 billion, down only 2% from the prior quarter end, despite runoff in MSR sales, which were largely mitigated by additions from new production. The servicing segment recorded pre-tax income of $13 million. Excluding valuation-related changes, pre-tax income was $57 million, or 3.1 basis points of average servicing portfolio UPB, up from $45 million or 2.5 basis points in the prior quarter. Earnings from custodial balances were down from the prior quarter, primarily due to lower short-term interest rates. Though realized prepayment speeds increased slightly from the prior quarter, realization of MSR cash flows was down 7% due to the expectation of lower prepayment speeds in future periods resulting from portfolio burnout.

[Dan Perotti, CFO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Operating expenses remain low at 4.5 basis points of average servicing portfolio UPB, or $81 million in the quarter. EPO revenue increased due to higher initiation of modifications and redelivery margins as a result of lower rates in the beginning of the quarter. Including the provision for losses on active loans, the fair value of PFSI's MSR increased by $177 million. An increase of $201 million was due to changes in market interest rates and was partially offset by $24 million in declines from other model and performance-related impacts. Hedge fair value losses, including principal-only strip MBS valuation-related accretion changes and hedge costs were $221 million. As we talked about last quarter, we increased our hedge ratio to near 100% to proactively manage prepayment risk.

[Dan Perotti, CFO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

While agency MBS spread volatility and tightening of the primary/secondary spread drove a net fair value decline this quarter, our positioning reflects our disciplined approach to maintaining book value stability across a volatile interest rate environment. Corporate and other items recorded a pre-tax loss of $42 million, up from $30 million in the prior quarter, primarily driven by $9 million in marketing activations related to the Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games, which are not expected to recur in upcoming quarters, as well as $3 million of transaction expenses related to our acquisition of Cenlar subservicing business. The prior quarter also included reduced expenses related to technology improvements. PFSI recorded a provision for tax expense of $22 million, resulting in an effective tax rate of 21.4%.

[Dan Perotti, CFO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Total debt to equity at quarter end is 4x and non-funding debt to equity at the end of the quarter was 1.7x. The increase in total leverage was driven by higher direct lending production and the increase in non-funding leverage was driven by higher interest rates, which drove increased utilization for our MSR credit facilities in addition to share repurchases. We expect these leverage ratios to remain near these levels as interest rates remain at current levels. Finally, we ended the quarter with $4.2 billion of total liquidity, which includes cash and amounts available to draw on facilities where we have collateral pledged. We'll now open it up for questions. Operator?

[Operator]

Thank you. I would like to remind everyone we will only take questions related to PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. or PFSI. We'd also ask you that you please keep your questions limited to one preliminary question and one follow-up question, as we'd like to ensure we can answer as many questions as possible. If you'd like to ask a question during this time, please press star followed by the number one to raise your hand and star one to withdraw your question. Our first question comes from the line of Doug Harter with BTIG. Your line is now open.

[Doug Harter, Analyst at BTIG]

Thanks. Hoping you could talk about, you know, any impact the volatility had on revenue margins in the quarter, whether it was increased hedging costs or, you know, less effective execution.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Hi, Doug. How are you? Congrats on the new role.

[Doug Harter, Analyst at BTIG]

Thank you, David.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

On the, on the production side, I am really encouraged by what I saw take place in the first quarter. You know, on the correspondence side, we saw margins, you know, up quarter-over-quarter from the fourth quarter, and we're seeing a continuation of that as we start the second quarter. In BPO, we're seeing margins, you know, currently holding near to the levels we saw in the first quarter. They're actually up a bit, they're up from the fourth quarter. In our consumer direct channel, you know, we're seeing a consistent margin story there. While, you know, the mix is gonna see the mix in the second quarter will probably warrant a higher margin of course.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

I'll tell you that, you know, the just the focus that we're seeing in the company driving up the revenue per loan is really showing in our results that we saw in Q1. It's gonna continue to be a focus of the company. On the hedge side, Dan, you wanna answer on the hedge side?

[Dan Perotti, CFO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Sure. With respect to hedging, as we talked about in the call, you know, there was a fair amount of interest rate volatility during the first quarter. As, you know, you saw in terms of the results and how we laid it out, we think we navigated that volatility well overall with respect to rate impacts. You know, fairly minimal impact of $7 million difference between the MSR and hedge versus our rate impacts. Hedge costs we did see as a little bit elevated, particularly related to the increase in volatility toward the end of the quarter, drove up our hedge costs in March. That contributed the majority of the hedge costs that we saw, the $14 million in hedge costs that we saw during the quarter.

[Dan Perotti, CFO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Overall pleased with our results and our navigation through what was a fairly volatile period in terms of interest rates during Q1.

[Doug Harter, Analyst at BTIG]

Appreciate it, Dan. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Your next question comes from Kyle Joseph with Stephens. Your line is now open.

[Kyle Joseph, Analyst at Stephens]

Hey, good afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I guess, yeah, as it pertains to hedging, I'd start, and I did hear the operator's warning, but just, you know, pending the acquisition, you know, how are you thinking about balancing hedging with how the business looks on a pro forma basis? Like, any changes we should expect there?

[Dan Perotti, CFO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

No real changes expected to our hedging strategy as we get through the acquisition. Just to refresh, the business that we're acquiring from Cenlar, their sub-servicing business is not the MSRs. They have, it's really a fee for service business, and so equity-wise, they don't have any MSRs in particular to speak of. Our overall strategy in terms of hedging the MSR, we expect to be consistent with how we've operated to date, and you know, not really change with respect to the additional sub-servicing business that we're bringing on.

[Kyle Joseph, Analyst at Stephens]

Got it. Thank you. Just to follow up, just been getting more and more questions on the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act and how you're thinking about, you know, any potential changes to position the business to best address that?

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Are you referring to the trigger?

[Kyle Joseph, Analyst at Stephens]

Yeah.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

-component?

[Kyle Joseph, Analyst at Stephens]

Exactly. Thanks, Dave. Yeah.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Yeah. It's really early. You know, the law went into effect on March 5th, we're just, you know, we're just starting to see loans come through that funded, you know, that locked at or after that date. We'll have a much better look through, you know, in the second quarter. You know, from the little that we've seen, it's, you know, generally positive.

[Kyle Joseph, Analyst at Stephens]

Understood. Thanks for taking my question, guys. Appreciate it.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

You bet.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Bose George with KBW. Your line is now open.

[Bose George, Analyst at KBW]

Hey, guys. Good afternoon. Actually, just in terms of your guidance, it looks like you removed the high teens part of the guidance. You know, now seems like it's the mid-teens. Is that the reflection of the smaller, you know, the mortgage market that's expected to stay with the move-up in rates?

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Yeah. Hi, Bose. How are you?

[Bose George, Analyst at KBW]

Good evening.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

We are, you know, I would tell you I've not removed the high teens from the long-term ROE guidance of this company. We believe we're a high teens to low 20 ROE company. In the short to medium term, there's really two factors that led us to just kind of slow down the return to the historic levels that we've seen. One is the technology spend. We are investing across both across our production channel and our servicing channel. On the production side, you know, we deployed our new technology into our consumer direct channel and now we are very busy, you know, introducing and implementing AI agents to help reduce not only the cost to fulfill, but also to continue to grow the efficiencies that we're seeing on Vesta for our sales associates.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Based on the early results that we're seeing from both, we feel it's incumbent upon us to really move quickly to take humans out of the loop and to be able to close loans faster and cheaper. That's gonna lead to just growing scale within our consumer direct platform. Similarly, you know, based on the results we're seeing in our consumer direct channel, we are moving quickly to move our broker direct channel onto the same platform. There's work that needs to be done to be able to build a broker portal that is very similar in experience and feel to the portal that our brokers experience today. That work will be done in the second and third quarters.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

We expect to see the first broker loans coming on at the end of the year with, you know, the full migration taking place in 2027. The exciting part about the moving broker is that the work we're doing on AI agents for our consumer direct channel are very relevant for our broker partners. I feel it's incumbent upon us to deliver the same experience for our brokers that we're seeing within our consumer direct channel. Similarly, on the consumer direct channel, we're doing work to create a human-out-of-the-loop mortgage origination process that I'm excited about, that I'm hopeful, you know, not hopeful, I know we'll see in the second half of this year. Then, you know, we're always looking to reduce, you know, costs in our correspondent channel and our shared service groups.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Other than the technology shared service groups, the cost, the technology costs with those are pretty minimal. With what I'm seeing out of, you know, Gemini and Claude and the add-ins that they have to Excel, there's a lot of great work being done around the organization. On the servicing side, there's similar work we're doing to drive down the cost to service. We have a long-term, not long-term, a medium-term goal to bring that cost down to $55 a loan a year. It's what we call the Drive to 55. You know, we believe we can get there in 24-36 months. The benefit there is not only to our own servicing portfolio, but as we add capacity and scale to our servicing platform, we're gonna get the benefits with the Cenlar loans.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

It's just, it's a lot of good, exciting investment that I expect is gonna really deliver returns starting in the second half of this year, but into 2027 and 2028. I feel it's incumbent upon us to make these investments to continue to retain our competitive advantage in the industry and hopefully widen the moat. On the origination side, I think to the point you raised there, you know, the Fannie and VA average, you know, for 2026 is at $2.3 trillion. Given where we're seeing rates today and given where it looks like they're gonna be, you know, for the, you know, for the future, I suspect and I believe they will be lower. That will lead to lower production volumes.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

You know, some of that will be offset by lower amortization on the portfolio. You know, I think given the results we're seeing out of our production units, when rates do decline, I expect to see very good, very good recapture coming out of our consumer direct channel. I expect to see broker direct continue to grow share while growing revenues. You know, in our correspondent channel, they had a great first quarter. I mean, when you consider with the GSEs being more aggressive through the cash window and conventional, they really did a nice job at, you know, increasing margins, increasing revenue per loan, maintaining their leadership in the correspondent channel, and I would expect that to continue for 2026.

[Bose George, Analyst at KBW]

Okay, great. That's great color. Thanks. Okay, just a quick follow-up. The mix in the product mix, just given what you noted in terms of the GSEs continuing to be competitive, do you feel like the mix is going to be similar where you're leaning more into the broker and direct-to-consumer?

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

I think, I think, we lean into all three channels, but we do so to do it profitably. Okay. You know, I often tell people around here, since 2023, you know, we've as an industry, have under executed to our cost of capital. We, as an industry, have to make our cost of capital. We have to do, you know, what we need to do to increase margins, increase our returns, and to do so without being concerned about market share or being concerned about what the GSEs are doing. Obviously, market share leads to scale and something, you know, is a byproduct of our leadership position.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

I think that, you know, suffice it to say that what we're seeing in broker direct and consumer direct, and with that representing 75% of our loan production in Q1, I would expect to see something similar in, you know, in Q2 for sure, and then we'll see what happens after that.

[Bose George, Analyst at KBW]

Okay, great. Thank you.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Mark DeVries with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

[Mark DeVries, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Yeah, thanks. David, I was wondering if you could help us understand on that revised ROE guidance, you know, the for the end of the year, kind of the high teens going down to the, you know, maybe low to mid-teens. How much of that is that pulling forward of investment in technology versus just kind of the smaller market size?

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

I would say it's about 2/3 technology, 1/3 smaller origination market.

[Mark DeVries, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Okay. That's helpful.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

And it's-

[Mark DeVries, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

And then-

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

I think, I think-

[Mark DeVries, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Sorry.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

I think that the returns we're seeing from the investment are really compelling. You know, I think that to wait to invest one versus the other. I don't think, it doesn't warrant waiting given the returns. I think that, you know, we feel very strongly and convicted that we're gonna make the investment. You know, I think, as I said, we'll see tech at, you know, near peak levels. Believe me, starting in the second half of this year, we're going to see the returns from this spend as well as, you know, the decline of technology spend, you know, over the following, you know, 12-18 months.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

I know many people say tech spend doesn't go down, but we reduced our tech spend from 22 to 24, and we'll reduce it here as we deploy, you know, the finite amount of AI agents that we need to, you know, in our production servicing divisions.

[Mark DeVries, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Okay. That's helpful context. That may help answer the second part of my question. When I just look back to, you know, excluding the last two quarters, the annualized operating ROE had been kind of more like the mid-to-high teens. We're kind of guiding even in the back half of the year, it's kind of below that. It's kind of the despite the market size, it probably wasn't any bigger then than what we're projecting now. Is this just kind of a, you know, given this, maybe, investment imperative in tech, we're looking at some intermediate-term lower ROEs as you make these kind of essential investments with hopefully a much, you know, more significant longer-term payoffs.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

I think that's right. Look, I'm always, I'm always going to present to you what we think is the base case. Everyone on this call knows me well enough that, you know, if we can deliver the results faster, we're going to, and you'll see the results sooner. You know, I think, you know, it's going to be, as I said, in the second half of 2026, we'll begin to see the results, and I think we will get into that mid to high teens in the back half, I'm sorry, the mid-teens in the back half of the year. I just think that we want to be very enthusiastic about the technology investments that we're making here. They're very meaningful.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

That's something that we wanna, you know, we wanna see implemented, given the fact that we work in a competitive environment and others are doing similar. I think we're ahead of most, if not all of them. I think it's something that we want to continue to maintain our competitive advantage.

[Mark DeVries, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Okay, great. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Your next question comes from Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

[Don Fandetti, Analyst at Wells Fargo]

David, I guess, you know, you talk a lot about the ROE and tech investments. I mean, if you look at the industry, there are some large players, a lot of investment going on. Like, what gives you the confidence that this is sort of a, you know, four-quarter kind of situation? Why not take that longer-term ROE down? I guess this incremental spend, it sounds like it's more offensive. I guess you've had some good improvement looking at the conventional loan, consumer direct recapture up to almost 30%. Like, is this offensive or defensive type incremental investment?

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

I believe it's offensive, Don, you know. I'll tell you, where we, where we get our confidence from is first, if you just started servicing and what we've done with our servicing technology and driving down our cost of service to industry-leading lows, I'm not talking by a few dollars here, I'm talking by a lot. Our ability to be able to serve our customers and be able to react to market anomalies.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

What we've done in servicing gives me great confidence that we have, we have the culture to be able to identify what the business opportunities and needs are and the technology leadership to be able to deliver those on a, on a low-cost basis. Similarly, with AI, what we're seeing is a lot of ability for our business leaders to take ownership and control of developing and building and implementing the AI agents. They have a staff in place that requires augmentation by moving people out of technology into the business units to build those agents. Now, over time, the demand for the agents and the other AI tools is going to lessen. You know, I believe our business leaders who have been very tech-focused, you know, since we started the company understand what needs to be done.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

I, I, you know, I, that's a factor, you know, in my decision-making here. Then finally, with what I'm seeing on Vesta in the platform and the way it's built and the ease to which we can deploy the agents into our workflow is very meaningful. That's work that has to be done by the team here as well. I generally believe that we're at a point in the market where we have to go on offense, and we're going to do it, you know, as we always do. You know, we're rows and columns folks. We're going to do it responsibly. We're watching the investment. As I said, I believe we're at or near peak levels.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

You know, given with what I'm seeing in the revenue per loan increasing gives me great confidence in terms of our ability to, you know, to pay for some of it. Also with what I really expect to see in terms of the cost reduction is going to be very meaningful.

[Don Fandetti, Analyst at Wells Fargo]

Okay. Thank you.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Trevor Cranston with Citizens JMP. Your line is now open.

[Trevor Cranston, Analyst at Citizens JMP]

Hey, thanks. Bit of a follow-up on that last question. You know, when you think about companies across the industry, you know, investing pretty aggressively in AI and new tech, you know, with the goal of making it cheaper to originate loans and faster. You know, how do you guys think about the long-term impact of that in terms of do you think that ends up resulting in companies just sort of structurally competing down gain on sale margins to a lower level than they've been historically? I'm curious kind of how you guys think about that dynamic when you think about kind of the long-term ROE guidance for the company. Thanks.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Look, I think that we have to compete based on cost to originate and ultimately on price, especially in our consumer direct channel. I think on broker direct, you know, I think that if you look at what's taken place in the marketplace and you look at the Q1 results, you know, we didn't see the, you know, perhaps margin expansion others may have expected to see. At the same time, I think that, you know, we're investing in AI because we believe here at the company that to increase the profitability and to consistently get to ROEs above 20%, we have to be the low-cost provider. To be the low-cost provider, we have to make the investments in technology to reduce the cost to originate and also to reduce the days to close.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

As, you know, as an industry, we haven't seen as much movement on that as well. I just think that, you know, we're going to be competing on, you know, whether you want to call it, you know, gain on sale margins or net margins, we're going to be competing on profitability. That profitability is going to be more heavily weighted to what the cost is to produce the mortgage and how quickly can you close the loan, especially on a refinance. That's where I see really the industry headed.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

I think we're just in a really unique position to be able to be a first mover on this, just given the fact that we have scale in all three channels, and we can quickly, you know, deploy technologies we created and to see meaningful results.

[Trevor Cranston, Analyst at Citizens JMP]

Yeah. Okay. That makes sense. Appreciate the comments.

[Operator]

Thank you. A reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star one. Our next question comes from Shanna Qiu with Barclays. Your line is now open.

[Shanna Qiu, High Yield Credit Research Senior Analyst, Financials and Media at Barclays]

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. You know, leverage is at 1.7x, which I think is above historical target of 1.5x. I know you mentioned that your ROE guide is somewhat predicated on, you know, the 2/3 technology and 1/3 smaller market. How should we think about, you know, where you guys would let re-leverage run to as you're making these investments if we do, you know, perhaps see a smaller market than you currently are anticipating?

[Dan Perotti, CFO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Overall, we're very focused on leverage. As you know, you know, going back historically, we've maintained our leverage at very responsible levels. The 1.7x, as you mentioned, is a bit above our historical target or historical run rate. You know, as we talked about in the earnings deck, we do expect to maintain our leverage at these levels. We are very focused on maintaining prudent levels of leverage in the business. We do have the ability to, you know, adjust and reallocate our capital in order to maintain our leverage ratios as we've shown in the past few quarters around optimizing our MSR portfolio and selling certain portfolios to ensure that we stay within leverage bounds.

[Dan Perotti, CFO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Despite the increases or our what we projected for leverage or what we put out as our projection for leverage at the 1.7x contemplates the, you know, the increase or the elevated technology spend that David, you know, that David went through. It's also, you know, contemplating the lower levels of activity with the smaller market. It contemplates both of those factors already. It is an element in our capital structure, and maintaining prudent levels of leverage is something that we are very focused on and will continue to, you know, to maintain in the business.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

You know, I'm focused on this every day, and I think we're at the upper bounds of where we're comfortable running the company. You know, we're gonna do what we need to do to, you know, try to get that down more towards, you know, the historic levels that we've seen in the company.

[Shanna Qiu, High Yield Credit Research Senior Analyst, Financials and Media at Barclays]

Great. Just follow up on the accounting. Can you comment on, you know, kind of what drove the changes in the breakout of the principal-only stripped MBS valuation related to accretion? I don't believe that was in prior quarters, so, any comments on that?

[Dan Perotti, CFO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Sure. That, you know, we did make a change there or shift some of that geography, and that really relates to the placement of or some of the impacts to accounting from the principal-only bonds versus changes in value during the period. You know, not to get too far into the details, but a piece of the principal-only bonds change in value is captured in in the changes in cash flows relating to interest rates is captured in interest income with changes in accretion. If you know, look in our 10-Q for this, you know, for this quarter, which was released this afternoon, you can see there was actually a negative impact to interest income due to basically changes in projected cash flows and sort of a reversal of the accretion.

[Dan Perotti, CFO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Those changes in accretion relating to future projected cash flows and the projected life of the, of the bonds, we really view as being associated with changes in fair value during the period, due to changes in interest rates, which obviously is also what impacts MSR fair value. You know, the change is typically, if you look at the past couple of quarters that are presented there on page 13 of the earnings deck, has typically been fairly small.

[Dan Perotti, CFO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Given the change in the volatility of interest rates during the quarter, and some of the sell-off, it was, you know, a bit larger this quarter, and we thought that it made sense and was more appropriate to present associated with changes in fair value of the MSR. I supposed to, it is a, you know, it is non-cash and based on future expected projected cash flows, as opposed to in the, you know, the pre-tax income excluding the valuation related changes. We've made that change for, you know, the per-period and going back historically.

[Shanna Qiu, High Yield Credit Research Senior Analyst, Financials and Media at Barclays]

Okay. Thank you.

[Operator]

We have no further questions at this time. I'll now turn it back to David Spector for closing remarks.

[David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc]

Well, I wanna thank everyone for joining us on the call today. Thank you for taking the time to ask these thoughtful questions. If you have any follow questions, I can make myself available. IR is available. I look forward to ongoing results and the discussions that take place. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

That concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

Participants

Executives

• Dan Perotti, CFO

Analysts

• Bose George, Analyst at KBW
• David Spector, Chairman and CEO at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc
• Don Fandetti, Analyst at Wells Fargo
• Doug Harter, Analyst at BTIG
• Kyle Joseph, Analyst at Stephens
• Mark DeVries, Analyst at Deutsche Bank
• Shanna Qiu, High Yield Credit Research Senior Analyst, Financials and Media at Barclays
• Trevor Cranston, Analyst at Citizens JMP