Lindblad Expeditions Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Q2 revenue rose 19% to $199.2 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased 31% to $32.5 million and margin expanded 150 basis points to 16.3%, despite elevated fuel costs.
  • Positive Sentiment: Occupancy reached 91%, up from 86% a year ago, and net yield increased 4.3% to a record $1,294 per available guest night. The company said bookings for 2026, 2027 and newly launched 2028 itineraries are pacing ahead of prior-year levels.
  • Positive Sentiment: Lindblad raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $830 million-$860 million from $800 million-$850 million and increased net yield growth guidance to 4.5%-5.5%; adjusted EBITDA guidance remains $130 million-$140 million.
  • Negative Sentiment: Elevated fuel prices, modeled near $100 per barrel for the remainder of the year, remain a significant profitability headwind. The company also cited higher National Geographic royalty costs and potential voyage cancellations tied to geopolitical events.
  • Positive Sentiment: Financial flexibility improved, with year-to-date free cash flow up 93% to $93.6 million and net leverage declining to 2.2 times. Management said it will prioritize organic investment and disciplined acquisitions, while retaining the option for debt reduction or opportunistic share repurchases.
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Earnings Conference Call
Lindblad Expeditions Q2 2026
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Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. Reports 2026 Second Quarter Financial Results. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. I will now hand the conference over to Rick Goldberg, Chief Financial Officer. Rick, please go ahead.

Rick Goldberg
Rick Goldberg
CFO at Lindblad Expeditions

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Lindblad's second quarter 2026 earnings call. With me on today's call is Natalya Leahy, our Chief Executive Officer. Natalya will begin with some opening comments. I will follow with details on our Q2 results and expectations for the full year before we open the call for Q&A. As always, you can find our latest earnings release in the investor relations section of our website. Before we get to all of that, I'd like to remind everyone that the company's comments today may include forward-looking statements. Those expectations are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results and performance to be materially different from these expectations. The company cannot guarantee the accuracy of any forecast or estimates. We undertake no obligation to update any such forward-looking statements.

Rick Goldberg
Rick Goldberg
CFO at Lindblad Expeditions

If you would like more information on the risks involved in forward-looking statements, please see the company's SEC filings. Our comments may reference non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures are contained in the company's earnings release. With that out of the way, I'll turn the call over to Natalya.

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

Thank you, Rick. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our second quarter earnings call. I'm excited to share our results with you today, as this quarter once again demonstrates the strength of our strategic approach and execution. We delivered double-digit revenue growth in the second quarter with total company revenue growth of 19% to $199 million, compared to $168 million in the second quarter of last year. Our Lindblad segment revenue increased 16% to $129 million, and our Land Experiences segment grew 23% to $70 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased 31% to $32.5 million, compared to $24.8 million a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA margins improved 150 basis points to 16.3%, despite continued significant challenges from fuel prices. We delivered both occupancy and yield improvement despite a 12% increase in capacity.

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

As you recall, we've consistently said we expect to achieve 90% occupancy this year, I'm very pleased to report that this is the second consecutive quarter we've hit the 90-plus target. Occupancy increased to 91%, up from 86% in the second quarter of 2025, our highest second quarter occupancy rate in 10 years and slightly ahead of our expectations. net yield increased 4% to $1,294 per guest night compared with $1,241 in the prior year period, a record for the second quarter. This marks the sixth consecutive quarter of delivering record net yields. Our 2026 bookings, both for our land and expedition segments, remained above the prior year, even last-minute availability is booking at a healthy pace. Our adjusted demand generation strategy helped us minimize risk and preserve booking momentum in 2026.

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

Because of our strong booking trends, we are raising our 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $830 million-$860 million, up from our previous guidance of $800 million-$850 million. We are also increasing our net yield guidance by 50 basis points from a range of 4%-5% to a range of 4.5%-5.5%. We are reaffirming our full year EBITDA guidance. I'm also pleased that our 2027 bookings continue to pace ahead of 2026 in both segments. Before I walk you through our progress against our three strategic pillars, I would like to take a step back and talk about the opportunity in front of us. Expedition travel sits in the intersection of three powerful trends. Consumers increasingly value experiences over material possessions. Affluent travelers are looking for authentic, immersive experiences rather than traditional luxury.

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

People are seeking belonging, purpose, and human connection in how they travel. Expedition travel is one of the fastest-growing segments in leisure travel, yet it still represents less than 1% of the global cruise market. Our addressable market remains very large. There are over 20 million U.S. households with more than $1 million in net worth. While major expedition-focused cruise lines serve less than 1 million travelers annually, we believe we're still in the early stages of a long growth trajectory. We as a company are uniquely able to capitalize on this opportunity. Every voyage we operate today is built on six decades of learning, relationships, and operational expertise, our partnership with National Geographic continues to be a unique competitive advantage, both in enhancing the guest experience and in introducing Lindblad to new audiences around the world.

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

Now let me walk you through the progress we made across our three strategic pillars. First, maximizing revenue generation through higher occupancy pricing and deployment optimization. Second, optimizing financial performance through cost innovation and fixed asset optimization. Third, exploring and capitalizing on accretive growth opportunities, including additions to our brand portfolio. Beginning with our first pillar, maximizing revenue. A few weeks ago, we launched our 2028 deployment, I'm excited about the early results. For this launch, we took our demand generation efforts up a notch through an integrated approach, proactively engaging past guests, working with our travel partners and onboard sales teams to maximize visibility for the launch. Our guests have clearly responded. The first few weeks of our 2028 launch generated twice the revenue of the same period last year.

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

Our 2028 lineup also includes an exceptional set of experiences, including our return to French Polynesia, where one- and two-week journeys combine iconic destinations such as Bora Bora and Moorea with remote Makatea, a rarely visited island offering unique cultural and exploration experiences beyond traditional itineraries. We are also expanding into destinations where we're seeing strong demand, including European river cruises and the Amazon. We also continue to expand our international presence. I joined our sales team on a major market engagement trip to Australia and New Zealand a couple months ago, meeting with more than 60 travel partners and engaging with journalists and media. Early data suggests bookings from the region have accelerated meaningfully since the trip, with bookings up 44% in the six weeks post our visit compared to the same period prior to our trip.

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

This builds on the momentum we're seeing in the U.K. market, which we launched last year. Our outbound sales program continues to gain traction, increasing 44% versus the second quarter of last year, supported by strong lead generation. We are also seeing strong growth in onboard and extension revenue, up 28%, driven by continued expansion of our product and service offerings, as well as pre-voyage initiatives. Our National Geographic partnership continues to deepen and enrich the guest experience. In May, Sven and I had the privilege of attending the opening of the new National Geographic Explorers Museum and hosting a group of National Geographic explorers who regularly sail with us.

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

It was very inspiring to discuss new ways to create even more meaningful guest experiences through exclusive access to world-class explorers, immersive storytelling, and opportunities for guests to engage with the important research and conservation work taking place in the destinations we visit. Moving to our second strategic pillar, which focuses on operational excellence and productivity improvements. As we have previously mentioned, we continue to build a deep pipeline of cost innovation initiatives that are driving efficiencies and generating healthy returns. In addition, our execution against our dry dock and deployment optimization strategies has generated 92 fewer non-revenue days for our 2028 deployment compared to 2026. In response to high fuel prices, we reduced fuel consumption year-over-year despite increase in capacity through a combination of ship-level cost innovation initiatives.

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

We also completed several contract renegotiations that are delivering meaningful run rate savings by leveraging the scale of our entire brand portfolio. As we become a more scientific and data-driven organization, we believe we will continue to unlock additional opportunities going forward. Turning to our third pillar, accretive growth. This time, I would like to highlight a few land initiatives that allow us to capitalize on consumer trends and build on our core competencies. Our new Off the Beaten Path Alaska Grand Slam itinerary, which covers all eight Alaska National Parks, sold out both its initial deployment and added departures within weeks. This is a great example of our guests' willingness to engage with us for truly differentiated, premium, once-in-a-lifetime experiences. DuVine's expanded offering of hiking plus cycling itineraries have been very well-received with very promising sales trends.

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

We also launched Women-Only Walks, WOW, across 20 destinations on Classic Journeys, which dovetails with the success of our Natural Habitat Adventures women's only journeys. We also continue to evaluate fleet expansion and other opportunities to add to our portfolio of brands, as I mentioned during last couple calls. As we talk about our why and our commitment to sustainability, I am very proud of our entire food and beverage team for delivering programs centered on sustainable local sourcing, food waste reduction, and unique educational guest experiences. We are honored to have been recognized with the Most Sustainable F&B Program Award at the 2026 Seatrade Cruise Awards. Before I turn the call to Rick, let me leave you with three key takeaways. Our revenue maximization efforts are working.

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

Strong second quarter occupancy, record net yields, and accelerating booking momentum across 2026, 2027, and 2028 shows that guests continue to choose Lindblad for differentiated premium experiences. We are becoming a more efficient, data-driven organization, and that discipline is showing up in our margins even as we invest in growth. Our creative growth initiatives across both Land Experiences and expeditions give us multiple paths to capture a large and still under-penetrated market. We are well-positioned for growth and actively pursuing new avenues through existing product expansions and acquisitions. We recently spent a few days with our executive leadership team reflecting on how proud we are of every member of our team for driving significant operational changes across so many areas of our business. I want to thank our teams for their humility, growth mindset, focus and resilience, and above all, for their unwavering commitment to the guest experience.

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

Now back to you, Rick.

Rick Goldberg
Rick Goldberg
CFO at Lindblad Expeditions

Thank you, Natalya. Last quarter, we discussed our decision to pull forward a portion of our demand generation spend. That strategy has contributed to strong near-in bookings while accelerating our 2027 booking pace. As Natalya noted, even with 12% capacity growth in the second quarter, we delivered 4.3% net yield growth, underscoring the strength of demand for our differentiated expedition experience. Total company revenue for the second quarter was $199.2 million, an increase of $31.3 million or 18.6% compared to the prior year. In the Lindblad segment, we successfully absorbed 11.9% additional capacity while continuing to drive both occupancy and pricing. Revenue increased 16.4% to $129.2 million. Occupancy improved 5 percentage points to 91%, our highest second quarter occupancy in 10 years, and net yield per available guest night increased 4.3% to $1,294, the highest second quarter net yield in company history.

Rick Goldberg
Rick Goldberg
CFO at Lindblad Expeditions

Land Experiences segment revenues were $70 million, an increase of $13.1 million or 23% compared to Q2 2025, driven by 13% growth in guests and an 8% increase in revenue per guest. Turning now to the cost side of the business. Operating expenses before stock-based compensation, transaction-related expenses, depreciation and amortization, interest and taxes increased $23.7 million or 16.5% versus Q2 2025. Specifically, cost of tours increased $11.2 million or 12.3%, driven by operating additional voyages and trips as well as higher fuel costs. As a result, gross margin increased to 48.5%, an improvement of 290 basis points compared to the prior year. Through our cost innovation initiatives, we reduced fuel consumption by more than 3% during the quarter, despite a 12% increase in capacity. Nonetheless, fuel prices remained elevated amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, increasing $2.7 million or 64% year over year.

Rick Goldberg
Rick Goldberg
CFO at Lindblad Expeditions

Fuel costs represented 5.3% of Lindblad segment revenue in the quarter, compared to 4.8% in the prior year. Sales and marketing costs increased $5.6 million or 21.3%, primarily due to the final royalty rate step-up under our National Geographic agreement. General and administrative costs, excluding stock-based compensation, transaction-related expenses, and reorganization costs increased $6.8 million or 27%. Half of that increase, $3.4 million, reflects the one-time benefit from employee retention tax credits recognized in the second quarter of 2025. Excluding that item, G&A as a percentage of revenue declined 100 basis points year over year. Higher personnel costs and strategic growth investments were more than offset by our continued focus on cost discipline and operating efficiencies as we scale the business.

Rick Goldberg
Rick Goldberg
CFO at Lindblad Expeditions

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $32.5 million, an increase of $7.6 million or 30.7% compared to the second quarter of 2025. Lindblad segment adjusted EBITDA increased $6.1 million or 37.5%, while Land Experiences segment adjusted EBITDA increased $1.5 million or 17.5%. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 16.3%, an improvement of 150 basis points compared to the second quarter of 2025. Net loss available to stockholders for the second quarter was $1.4 million, an improvement of $8.3 million compared to the prior year. This equated to a loss of $0.02 per share, compared to a loss of $0.18 per share in Q2 2025. Importantly, excluding the accelerated depreciation associated with the planned fourth-quarter retirement of National Geographic Sea Bird and National Geographic Sea Lion, we would have reported positive GAAP net income for the quarter.

Rick Goldberg
Rick Goldberg
CFO at Lindblad Expeditions

Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with total cash of $364.9 million, an increase of $75.2 million versus the end of 2025. The increase reflects $108.5 million in cash from operations, due primarily to the strong results of the business and in increased bookings for future travel. We used $14.9 million of cash for investing activities, primarily related to maintenance for our own ships. Year-to-date, free cash flow increased 93% to $93.6 million. Our net leverage declined from 2.7x at the end of the first quarter to 2.2x, further strengthening our balance sheet. As we've discussed on recent earnings calls, we continue to actively evaluate accretive growth opportunities, including expanding our fleet and further diversifying our portfolio of Land Experiences brands to capitalize on the continued growth and demand for adventure travel.

Rick Goldberg
Rick Goldberg
CFO at Lindblad Expeditions

Turning now to our full-year outlook, I'm pleased to share our updated guidance for 2026. We continue to expect available guest nights to be approximately flat year-over-year in the second half of 2026. As Natalya mentioned, our demand generation efforts continue to drive strong booking momentum across 2026 and 2027, as well as for our recently launched 2028 itineraries. Reflecting this strength, we now expect net yield per available guest night to increase 4.5%-5.5% year-over-year, compared to our prior guidance of 4%-5%. Consistent with this improved outlook, we are raising our full-year revenue guidance to a range of $830 million-$860 million, up from our previous range of $800 million-$850 million. At the same time, fuel prices remained elevated. Given this continued headwind, we are maintaining our adjusted EBITDA guidance of $130 million-$140 million.

Rick Goldberg
Rick Goldberg
CFO at Lindblad Expeditions

In closing, Natalya and I are proud of our team's execution in a dynamic operating environment. With strong demand, a healthy balance sheet, and a disciplined approach to growth, we believe the company is well-positioned for the remainder of 2026 and beyond. With that, we thank you for your interest in Lindblad Expeditions. Natalya and I would be happy to answer any questions you may have.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Ian Zaffino with Oppenheimer. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Ian Zaffino
Ian Zaffino
Analyst at Oppenheimer

Hi, great. Thank you very much. Really good quarter. Wanted to ask on the occupancy side, because it seems like you're really outperforming here. How much more runway do we have here, and how do we think about where that could ultimately go? Do you think it could go higher than you initially thought it could go? I know there's a new kind of calendar coming on 2027, also in 2028. Just kind of looking forward, where can this actually go to? Thanks.

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

Hi, Ian. Let me take this question. It's a great question. I think what you're really asking is what's the potential of future yield growth. I think occupancy levels, as we always said it since last year, about 90%, slightly higher maybe is the norm for this business, given small sizes of our ships and our ultra-premium product offerings. I do think we have a potential to continue to grow yields at a very healthy rate, which is what current booking trends are showing, that's both from our improved deployment and mix of the product, our significant improved demand generation efforts, and our additional revenue streams such as on-board revenue and extension revenues.

Ian Zaffino
Ian Zaffino
Analyst at Oppenheimer

Okay, thanks. For Rick, maybe two questions here. Can you maybe just give us a little more color on the fuel? Maybe what was the headwind and kind of what you're assuming going forward? Also as far as use of cash, I know you bought back stock and encouraged by that, but also I know you have kind of other aspirations on the M&A side, how are you kind of balancing that and how are you thinking about that? Thanks.

Rick Goldberg
Rick Goldberg
CFO at Lindblad Expeditions

Yeah. I'll hit that second question first, just in terms of capital allocation. I would say is our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. First, we'll continue to invest in organic growth opportunities that strengthen our business and enhance the guest experience.

Rick Goldberg
Rick Goldberg
CFO at Lindblad Expeditions

Second, we'll pursue disciplined, accretive investments across both our expedition cruising and Land Experiences businesses. Finally, to the extent that we generate capital beyond those needs, we'll evaluate returning it to shareholders through our debt reduction or opportunistic share repurchases. In terms of fuel, we continue to see fuel prices remain elevated. Where they were at the end of Q1 remained pretty consistent throughout the second quarter. We are modeling a range of scenarios, including having fuel prices remain at this elevated level, where it was at the end of Q1, at the end of Q2, close to $100 a barrel for the remainder of the fiscal year. If that is the case, we will remain within our guidance range of $130 million-$140 million of EBITDA.

Ian Zaffino
Ian Zaffino
Analyst at Oppenheimer

Okay, thank you very much. Great quarter. I'll talk to you guys later. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Eric Des Lauriers with Craig-Hallum Capital Group. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Eric Des Lauriers
Eric Des Lauriers
Analyst at Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Great. Thanks for taking my questions, and congrats on yet another very impressive quarter here. My first question, so noticing the increased ownership stake on some of the Land Experiences here, could you just provide some color around your updated thinking here on potentially increasing ownership stakes to 100%? Is that sort of in the plan or in the cards, and any additional color that you can provide on sort of timing or priority ranking there would be helpful. Thank you.

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

Well, thank you, Eric. Another great question. I'll start, and I'll let Rick contribute. We have a very unique model on land companies where our founders are part of the ownership model, and they continue to run the businesses. We believe that provides us a unique competitive advantage and brings the passion, the talent, and exceptional knowledge of the product into the play. For that reason, we really trust, hope, and have a high confidence that our founders will stay with us for much longer time. The ownership stake might change, but we hope that the model of co-ownership will continue.

Rick Goldberg
Rick Goldberg
CFO at Lindblad Expeditions

Yeah. I very much agree with everything Natalya said. I mean, this is a real differentiator for us and allows us to closely align incentives between ourselves as well as the founders and entrepreneurs in these businesses. Over the course of the last year, we actually extended the agreements with all four of our land company founders and owners who are still with the business. As part of that, some of them wanted to take a little bit of cash off the table and get some monetization, and it was a win-win situation for both sides.

Eric Des Lauriers
Eric Des Lauriers
Analyst at Craig-Hallum Capital Group

That's great color. Appreciate that. My next question, in the prepared remarks, you mentioned that as the company becomes more data-driven, you'll look to identify even more opportunities of cost improvement, which have already been quite impactful here. I just wanted to kind of get a high-level sort of assessment of where you guys are in that sort of data-driven evolution of the company. I guess, however you guys want to take this, whether you kind of want to identify what sort of inning we're in this overall data-driven transformation or just kind of help provide some more color around sort of where we are in that transformation and what we may be able to look forward to as that progresses. Thanks.

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

Yeah. I think, Eric, first of all, every cost initiative, there is a timeline when it starts, and the results usually follow later. You would recall that Rick was mentioning last year we had over 20 cost innovation initiatives in the pipeline. You are really seeing the results of them mainly coming this year. This year, we have another 30+ cost innovation initiatives that will start delivering results later this year and in the next three years. Hopefully, it gives you a little bit of color on the pipeline.

Eric Des Lauriers
Eric Des Lauriers
Analyst at Craig-Hallum Capital Group

That's very helpful. Thanks again.

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

You're welcome.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Albanese with Benchmark StoneX. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Michael Albanese
Analyst at Benchmark StoneX

Yeah, thank you. Good morning, everybody. A really nice quarter. Just a couple quick ones from me. I think this is the first time we heard you talk about 2028 booking curves. Obviously, with new itineraries and more capacity. Could you just give us some insight into what you're seeing there? Is this still accelerating momentum, I guess, versus 2027 booking curves? Is it too early to read into that? If you could elaborate on that'd be helpful. Thank you.

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

Yeah. I'm smiling here because it's the first time because we just launched 2028, and I'm very, very proud of the team for an incredible support and demand generation efforts here. As I mentioned, not only it's been doing great, we literally have seen double of bookings in 2028 versus 2027. Now, I don't expect that it will always continue. There is a booking curve, right?

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

level off as it goes on. It's a very strong launch, and it's pulling demand forward, enabling price elasticity later on. Early days, but exceptional launch support. We launched with new demand generation and marketing support strategy, and it seems to be paying off.

Michael Albanese
Analyst at Benchmark StoneX

Awesome. That's helpful. Thank you. Could you just provide some context maybe on price and how much price you're taking, and maybe just bifurcate between price and traffic, as we think about kind of the latter half of 2027 and then into that newer 2028 booking curve?

Rick Goldberg
Rick Goldberg
CFO at Lindblad Expeditions

What we've always shared is that we expected this year, as well as last year, to really be about driving occupancy, and that being the primary lever of net yield growth. We are still pricing up on a like-for-like basis, although we do have some mixed headwinds in terms of our itineraries, especially with some of the voyages that we added six to nine months out, which is a much shorter booking window than we would typically have. As we turn the page from 2026-2027, our expectation is that net yield is much more pricing-driven than it is occupancy-driven at that stage. Natalya, anything to add?

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

No, that was great.

Michael Albanese
Analyst at Benchmark StoneX

Awesome. Thank you very much, guys.

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

You are welcome.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Wieczynski. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Steven Wieczynski
Steven Wieczynski
Analyst at Stifel

Hey, guys. Good morning. I want to go back to the guidance here for a second. The revenue guidance for the year was raised. EBITDA guidance was maintained. Rick, you called out fuel headwinds, but that just doesn't seem to be that big of a headwind given your consumption there. If you guys did $67 million in EBITDA in the first half of the year, I guess what we're struggling with here is, how do you still kind of get into that range for EBITDA in the back half of the year? Has there been a change in cost in the second half, or is there something else we're just flat out missing here? Maybe a little bit of help around the cadence of the next two quarters would be helpful. Thanks.

Rick Goldberg
Rick Goldberg
CFO at Lindblad Expeditions

Absolutely, Steven. Just as a reminder, Q1 included an approximately $3 million one-time benefit related to the timing of Land Experiences tour insurance revenue, and Q2 benefited from a 12% increase in capacity. Whereas, we expect capacity to be flat in the second half of the year. It will be up mid-single digits in Q3 and down mid-single digits in Q4. The main headwind in the second half of the year is fuel costs, which remain elevated. Our assumption is that prices remain elevated throughout the rest of the year. If you are comparing year-over-year, you also have the final royalty rate step-up related to our National Geographic contract. Additionally, there is always risk of canceled voyages due to uncertainty surrounding geopolitical events.

Steven Wieczynski
Steven Wieczynski
Analyst at Stifel

Let me ask that different, Rick. If oil, obviously fuel has actually started to kind of work the other way, is it fair, I think you kind of said that based on your guidance today, you guys are still assuming, let us say crude is kind of in that $100 a barrel range, and if there is no geopolitical further headwinds, there should be upside to that EBITDA guidance range. Hopefully, that makes sense.

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

I think, Steven, our guidance is already a range, and it assumes a number of outcomes based on what we are modeling. I would say it does assume both upside and downside within this guidance. It is as accurate as we can communicate right now based on what we know.

Steven Wieczynski
Steven Wieczynski
Analyst at Stifel

Okay. One more quick one if I could, please. Did you mention Disney anywhere in terms of where bookings are pacing right now for those guys?

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

Well, I mentioned a number of initiatives that we continue to drive. We're not driving Disney bookings versus non-Disney bookings. We are driving a number of demand generation initiatives together. For example, our outbound sales increase, driven by increase in lead generation. Some of them come through National Geographic, Disney channels. Our international expansion success is clearly a result of National Geographic global brand name recognition. I think it's embedded in many of our commercial initiatives.

Steven Wieczynski
Steven Wieczynski
Analyst at Stifel

Okay. Got you. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.

Natalya Leahy
Natalya Leahy
CEO at Lindblad Expeditions

No problem.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Rick Goldberg for closing remarks.

Rick Goldberg
Rick Goldberg
CFO at Lindblad Expeditions

Just want to thank everyone for joining today's earnings call, and for your continued interest in Lindblad Expeditions. Especially to our team at Lindblad Expeditions, who has worked really hard to put together a strong quarter in Q2 2026, and is working towards continuing to drive the business forward. Thank you so much, everyone.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

Executives
    • Rick Goldberg
      Rick Goldberg
      CFO
    • Natalya Leahy
      Natalya Leahy
      CEO
Analysts