Analysts Offer Predictions for Valero Energy FY2026 Earnings

Key Points

• Erste Group Bank raised Valero’s FY2026 EPS forecast to $33.58 from $32.09, though it remains below the broader consensus estimate of $36.46. The firm projects FY2027 EPS of $23.83.
• Analyst sentiment is broadly positive, with MarketBeat reporting a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating and an average price target of $266.71. Recent target increases range as high as $340, while Valero shares opened at $299.32 and are near their 12-month high.
• Strong refining margins, resilient fuel demand and Iran-related supply disruptions could support upcoming results, but elevated crude costs and volatility in renewable diesel may pressure spreads and limit further upside. Valero also announced a quarterly dividend of $1.20, or $4.80 annualized, yielding about 1.6%.

Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO - Free Report) - Stock analysts at Erste Group Bank upped their FY2026 EPS estimates for Valero Energy in a research note issued on Monday, July 27th. Erste Group Bank analyst H. Engel now forecasts that the oil and gas company will post earnings of $33.58 per share for the year, up from their prior estimate of $32.09. The consensus estimate for Valero Energy's current full-year earnings is $36.46 per share. Erste Group Bank also issued estimates for Valero Energy's FY2027 earnings at $23.83 EPS.

A number of other research analysts also recently weighed in on VLO. Citigroup increased their target price on shares of Valero Energy from $259.00 to $302.00 and gave the company a "neutral" rating in a research report on Tuesday, July 14th. Zacks Research downgraded Valero Energy from a "strong-buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a research report on Monday, June 22nd. Mizuho lifted their target price on shares of Valero Energy from $222.00 to $289.00 and gave the stock a "neutral" rating in a research report on Wednesday, May 27th. TD Cowen raised their target price on Valero Energy from $292.00 to $338.00 and gave the stock a "hold" rating in a research note on Tuesday, July 21st. Finally, Raymond James Financial lifted their target price on shares of Valero Energy from $300.00 to $340.00 and gave the company a "strong-buy" rating in a research note on Monday, July 13th. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, eleven have assigned a Buy rating, eight have given a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the company's stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the stock has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average target price of $266.71.

Valero Energy Price Performance

Shares of VLO opened at $299.32 on Wednesday. The stock has a market cap of $88.88 billion, a P/E ratio of 21.75, a P/E/G ratio of 0.20 and a beta of 0.55. The business's fifty day moving average is $266.89 and its 200 day moving average is $236.48. Valero Energy has a 12-month low of $130.78 and a 12-month high of $320.24. The company has a quick ratio of 1.15, a current ratio of 1.58 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39.

Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO - Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings data on Thursday, April 30th. The oil and gas company reported $4.22 earnings per share for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $3.16 by $1.06. The company had revenue of $32.38 billion for the quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of $31.38 billion. Valero Energy had a net margin of 3.37% and a return on equity of 15.94%. Valero Energy's revenue for the quarter was up 7.0% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter in the previous year, the firm posted $0.89 earnings per share.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Large investors have recently made changes to their positions in the business. Friedenthal Financial purchased a new position in Valero Energy in the fourth quarter worth approximately $954,000. Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. boosted its position in shares of Valero Energy by 24.7% in the 4th quarter. Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. now owns 565,171 shares of the oil and gas company's stock valued at $92,004,000 after purchasing an additional 112,118 shares during the period. Whittier Trust Co. grew its position in shares of Valero Energy by 2.8% during the fourth quarter. Whittier Trust Co. now owns 212,104 shares of the oil and gas company's stock worth $37,812,000 after acquiring an additional 5,694 shares during the last quarter. V Square Quantitative Management LLC acquired a new position in Valero Energy in the fourth quarter valued at $1,079,000. Finally, Sierra Summit Advisors LLC increased its position in Valero Energy by 2,325.2% in the 4th quarter. Sierra Summit Advisors LLC now owns 36,378 shares of the oil and gas company's stock valued at $5,922,000 after acquiring an additional 34,878 shares during the period. 78.69% of the stock is owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

Insider Activity at Valero Energy

In other news, SVP Eric A. Fisher sold 7,500 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction on Monday, June 29th. The stock was sold at an average price of $268.17, for a total value of $2,011,275.00. Following the completion of the sale, the senior vice president owned 19,742 shares of the company's stock, valued at $5,294,212.14. This trade represents a 27.53% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through this hyperlink. 0.36% of the stock is currently owned by company insiders.

Valero Energy Announces Dividend

The business also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Monday, August 31st. Shareholders of record on Friday, July 31st will be paid a $1.20 dividend. This represents a $4.80 annualized dividend and a yield of 1.6%. The ex-dividend date is Friday, July 31st. Valero Energy's payout ratio is 34.88%.

Key Headlines Impacting Valero Energy

Here are the key news stories impacting Valero Energy this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Elevated gasoline and diesel crack spreads, along with resilient fuel demand, are expected to support Valero’s second-quarter results for the period ended June 2026. Strong refining margins could lead to results that meet or exceed Wall Street expectations. Valero Energy Q2 Earnings on Deck: What's in Store for the Stock?
• Positive Sentiment: Refiners including VLO have benefited from disruptions linked to Iran-related tensions, which have contributed to tighter fuel markets and unusually strong crack spreads. Buybacks and dividends add to the sector’s shareholder-return appeal. Refiner Stocks Are Near Record Highs—Can Iran-Driven Margins Keep Them There?
• Positive Sentiment: Higher oil prices related to geopolitical tensions and rising energy demand are helping keep energy stocks, including Valero, in focus as investors look for companies that can benefit from constrained supply. Oil Prices Are Surging and These 4 Stocks Are Cashing In
• Neutral Sentiment: Analysts are concentrating on Valero’s revenue, earnings and operating metrics ahead of the quarterly release. The estimates create the potential for a positive or negative earnings reaction depending on the size of any beat or miss. Gear Up for Valero Energy Q2 Earnings: Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics
• Negative Sentiment: High crude costs could pressure refining spreads, while volatility in Valero’s renewable diesel business may make earnings less predictable. These risks could limit further upside if margins normalize or the company’s results fall short of elevated expectations. Valero Energy Q2 Earnings on Deck: What's in Store for the Stock?

About Valero Energy

Valero Energy Corporation is a San Antonio, Texas–based integrated downstream energy company that manufactures and markets transportation fuels, petrochemical feedstocks and other industrial products. The company's operations focus on refining crude oil into finished fuels such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, as well as producing asphalt and other refined product streams for commercial and industrial customers.

In addition to refining, Valero has significant operations in renewable fuels, including the production of ethanol and other biofuels, and it manages an extensive logistics network of pipelines, terminals, rail and marine assets to move feedstocks and finished products.

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