Vistra (NYSE:VST) Issues Quarterly Earnings Results, Beats Expectations By $0.27 EPS

Key Points

• Vistra reported quarterly EPS of $3.25, beating the $2.98 consensus by $0.27, while revenue of $6.35 billion also topped expectations.
• Record third-quarter adjusted EBITDA reached $2.38 billion, up more than 50% year over year; Vistra raised its 2026 guidance and issued 2027 outlook.
• Vistra completed its Cogentrix acquisition, adding about 5,500 MW of generation capacity, but cited softer ERCOT forward prices and uncertainty around the timing of new data-center demand.

Vistra (NYSE:VST - Get Free Report) posted its earnings results on Friday. The company reported $3.25 earnings per share for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $2.98 by $0.27, FiscalAI reports. Vistra had a net margin of 11.55% and a return on equity of 108.68%. The firm had revenue of $6.35 billion during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $6.03 billion.

Here are the key takeaways from Vistra's conference call:

• Vistra posted record third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $2.38 billion, up more than 50% year over year, and raised the midpoint of its 2026 guidance to $7.1–$7.5 billion in adjusted EBITDA and $4.3–$4.7 billion in adjusted free cash flow before growth. The company also introduced 2027 guidance of $7.7–$8.5 billion and $4.3–$5.1 billion, respectively.
• Vistra closed its acquisition of Cogentrix, adding about 5,500 MW of generation capacity for a net purchase price of approximately $4 billion. The company expects high-single-digit adjusted free cash flow accretion near term, rising to double digits beginning in 2029.
• Management cited softer ERCOT forward prices and slower-than-expected near-term load growth, amid data-center audits and permitting delays. Vistra said its long-term outlook is unchanged and expects load growth of 4%–6% in ERCOT and 2%–3% in PJM through 2030, but the timing of new connections remains uncertain.
• The company sees a path to roughly 70% growth in adjusted free cash flow before growth per share from 2027 to 2030, based on current forward curves and an assumed allocation of excess cash to repurchases. Vistra said the estimate includes about $3 billion in annual buybacks and already-announced projects, but not potential additional growth contracts.
• Vistra said customer discussions for nuclear and gas contracts remain active, citing opportunities across its roughly 50,000-MW fleet and existing projects including the Meta agreement at Perry and an Odessa gas-plant PPA. Management emphasized that projects must meet its mid-teens-or-higher return threshold.

Vistra Trading Up 10.3%

VST stock traded up $11.64 during trading on Friday, hitting $124.53. 12,508,216 shares of the company traded hands, compared to its average volume of 7,060,803. The company has a 50-day moving average of $143.88 and a 200-day moving average of $152.65. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.87, a quick ratio of 0.87 and a current ratio of 0.97. Vistra has a 1 year low of $110.89 and a 1 year high of $196.80. The firm has a market capitalization of $41.80 billion, a PE ratio of 21.04 and a beta of 1.37.

Vistra Increases Dividend

The business also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Thursday, December 31st. Stockholders of record on Tuesday, December 22nd will be paid a $0.2310 dividend. This is a boost from Vistra's previous quarterly dividend of $0.23. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Tuesday, December 22nd. This represents a $0.92 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 0.7%. Vistra's dividend payout ratio is presently 15.54%.

Insider Buying and Selling

In other news, EVP Scott A. Hudson sold 44,444 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction that occurred on Tuesday, September 8th. The shares were sold at an average price of $151.82, for a total value of $6,747,488.08. Following the transaction, the executive vice president owned 331,137 shares in the company, valued at approximately $50,273,219.34. This trade represents a 11.83% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this hyperlink. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, CEO James Burke bought 4,465 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction that occurred on Tuesday, September 1st. The stock was purchased at an average cost of $135.25 per share, for a total transaction of $603,891.25. Following the completion of the purchase, the chief executive officer owned 1,146,352 shares of the company's stock, valued at $155,044,108. This trade represents a 0.39% increase in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this purchase is available in the SEC filing. 0.92% of the stock is owned by insiders.

Vistra announced that its board has authorized a share repurchase plan on Friday, November 6th that authorizes the company to repurchase $1.50 billion in outstanding shares. This repurchase authorization authorizes the company to reacquire up to 3.3% of its stock through open market purchases. Share repurchase plans are often an indication that the company's board of directors believes its stock is undervalued.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth

Several analysts have issued reports on VST shares. Seaport Research Partners lowered their target price on shares of Vistra from $226.00 to $202.00 in a research note on Monday. BMO Capital Markets reduced their price target on shares of Vistra from $210.00 to $188.00 and set an "outperform" rating for the company in a research report on Thursday. BNP Paribas Exane set a $255.00 price target on shares of Vistra and gave the stock an "outperform" rating in a report on Wednesday, August 19th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered their price objective on Vistra from $231.00 to $228.00 in a research report on Tuesday, October 27th. Finally, Weiss Ratings lowered Vistra from a "hold (c+)" rating to a "hold (c)" rating in a research note on Thursday, August 13th. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, nineteen have assigned a Buy rating, three have issued a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the company's stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the stock has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus price target of $205.00.

Key Stories Impacting Vistra

Here are the key news stories impacting Vistra this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Vistra reported third-quarter EPS of $3.25, above the $2.98 consensus, and net income of $1.14 billion versus FactSet’s $1.01 billion estimate. Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA rose more than 50% year over year to $2.378 billion. Vistra Q3 results
• Positive Sentiment: The company raised its 2026 outlook and announced a $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization, supporting expectations for stronger earnings and shareholder returns. Vistra raises outlook and announces buyback
• Positive Sentiment: Sanford C. Bernstein reaffirmed its “Outperform” rating and set a $181 price target, signaling substantial upside from the cited share price. Bernstein rating and target
• Negative Sentiment: Investors still face uncertainty over potential Texas policy changes and their effects on data-center development and electricity demand. KeyBanc’s recent downgrade reflected those concerns. KeyBanc downgrade and Texas policy risks

About Vistra

Vistra Corp. is an integrated energy company that generates and sells electricity and provides related services to residential, commercial and industrial customers. Its retail businesses offer electricity plans and energy services through brands that include TXU Energy and Ambit Energy.

The company owns and operates a diverse generation fleet, including natural gas, nuclear, coal and solar facilities, as well as battery energy storage systems. Its operations serve customers and wholesale power markets across multiple U.S.

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