Warner Music Group (NASDAQ:WMG) Releases Q3 2026 Earnings Guidance

Key Points

• Warner Music raised its Q3 2026 outlook, forecasting EPS of $0.51 versus the $0.39 consensus and revenue of $1.9 billion versus the $1.8 billion estimate.
• Preliminary results reportedly exceeded expectations, with revenue up approximately 10% year over year and double-digit streaming growth; subscription streaming revenue also increased 11%.
• Despite favorable analyst sentiment—WMG carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating and a $38.43 average price target—the stock fell to $25.10 on Monday, well below its 52-week high of $35.42.

Warner Music Group (NASDAQ:WMG - Get Free Report) updated its third quarter 2026 earnings guidance on Monday morning. The company provided earnings per share guidance of 0.510-0.510 for the period, compared to the consensus estimate of 0.390. The company issued revenue guidance of $1.9 billion-$1.9 billion, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $1.8 billion.

Warner Music Group Stock Performance

Warner Music Group stock traded down $0.86 on Monday, hitting $25.10. The company's stock had a trading volume of 3,578,376 shares, compared to its average volume of 2,373,953. Warner Music Group has a one year low of $23.34 and a one year high of $35.42. The firm has a market cap of $13.09 billion, a P/E ratio of 29.53, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.38 and a beta of 1.30. The company has a quick ratio of 0.71, a current ratio of 0.73 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.62. The company has a fifty day moving average price of $28.76 and a 200-day moving average price of $28.86.

Warner Music Group (NASDAQ:WMG - Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings data on Thursday, May 7th. The company reported $0.44 EPS for the quarter, topping analysts' consensus estimates of $0.30 by $0.14. The company had revenue of $1.73 billion during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $1.61 billion. Warner Music Group had a net margin of 6.34% and a return on equity of 62.01%. The firm's revenue for the quarter was up 16.7% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period last year, the firm earned $0.07 EPS. On average, equities analysts anticipate that Warner Music Group will post 1.52 earnings per share for the current year.

Warner Music Group Dividend Announcement

The firm also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Tuesday, June 2nd. Shareholders of record on Tuesday, May 26th were paid a dividend of $0.19 per share. The ex-dividend date was Tuesday, May 26th. This represents a $0.76 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 3.0%. Warner Music Group's dividend payout ratio (DPR) is currently 89.41%.

Analysts Set New Price Targets

WMG has been the topic of several analyst reports. Weiss Ratings reiterated a "hold (c)" rating on shares of Warner Music Group in a research note on Wednesday, June 24th. Zacks Research downgraded Warner Music Group from a "strong-buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a research report on Monday, June 22nd. Morgan Stanley set a $39.00 price target on Warner Music Group in a research note on Friday, May 8th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. boosted their price target on Warner Music Group from $40.00 to $43.00 and gave the company an "overweight" rating in a research note on Friday, May 8th. Finally, Sanford C. Bernstein reiterated an "outperform" rating on shares of Warner Music Group in a research report on Friday, May 8th. Fourteen analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and four have given a Hold rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, Warner Music Group has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus price target of $38.43.

Warner Music Group News Roundup

Here are the key news stories impacting Warner Music Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Preliminary results beat expectations: Warner Music said fiscal third-quarter results exceeded forecasts, with revenue increasing approximately 10% year over year. Double-digit streaming growth was a key contributor. Warner Music Group's FQ3 preliminary results beat expectations Warner Music Group Q3 Revenue Up 10% on Double-Digit Streaming Growth
• Positive Sentiment: Subscription streaming remains healthy: A company filing reportedly showed recorded-music subscription streaming revenue rose 11% year over year in calendar second quarter, indicating continued momentum in Warner’s core digital business and suggesting the CFO’s departure was not caused by a weak quarter. Warner Music Group and its CFO didn’t part ways because of a dud quarter
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst sentiment is favorable: WMG was assigned an average “Moderate Buy” rating, which may provide some support despite the management changes. Warner Music Group Given Average Rating of Moderate Buy

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Large investors have recently bought and sold shares of the company. US Bancorp DE increased its stake in shares of Warner Music Group by 23.5% in the 3rd quarter. US Bancorp DE now owns 1,729 shares of the company's stock valued at $59,000 after buying an additional 329 shares during the period. Thrivent Financial for Lutherans lifted its stake in shares of Warner Music Group by 1.1% during the second quarter. Thrivent Financial for Lutherans now owns 34,350 shares of the company's stock valued at $936,000 after acquiring an additional 358 shares during the period. Federation des caisses Desjardins du Quebec lifted its stake in shares of Warner Music Group by 12.0% during the fourth quarter. Federation des caisses Desjardins du Quebec now owns 3,783 shares of the company's stock valued at $116,000 after acquiring an additional 405 shares during the period. Natixis Advisors LLC lifted its stake in shares of Warner Music Group by 3.6% during the fourth quarter. Natixis Advisors LLC now owns 12,718 shares of the company's stock valued at $390,000 after acquiring an additional 446 shares during the period. Finally, UBS AM a distinct business unit of UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC boosted its holdings in Warner Music Group by 4.3% in the fourth quarter. UBS AM a distinct business unit of UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC now owns 11,062 shares of the company's stock valued at $339,000 after acquiring an additional 460 shares during the last quarter. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 96.88% of the company's stock.

Warner Music Group Company Profile

Warner Music Group is a major global music company that operates across recorded music and music publishing. Its recorded-music business comprises a portfolio of well-known labels—including Atlantic, Warner Records and Parlophone—as well as distribution and artist-services operations that support both established and emerging artists. The company's publishing arm, Warner Chappell Music, manages songwriting catalogs and administers rights for compositions across multiple media, providing licensing for film, television, advertising and other commercial uses.

WMG's activities span the full music value chain: signing and developing artists, producing and marketing recordings, distributing music through physical channels and streaming platforms, and monetizing rights through licensing, synchronization and neighboring-rights collection.

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