Amazon’s Pullback Deepens as a New FTC Risk Hits the Stock

Key Points

• The FTC has drafted a potential complaint against Amazon over claims it misled advertisers with hidden ad pricing, with civil penalties potentially running into the billions.
• This isn't the first time Amazon has been in the FTC's crosshairs either, with the agency securing a $2.5 billion settlement against the company just last year over deceptive Prime practices.
• The headline risk couldn't have come at a worse time for the stock, but for those of us looking at the bigger picture, the long-term bull case remains very much intact.

Shares of Amazon.com NASDAQ: AMZN started this week on the back foot, trading down around $230, their lowest level since early April. The stock has been going through a tough patch and is now down more than 16% from the all-time high it hit last month.

What makes the current pullback particularly worrying is the divergence from the rest of the market and the broader tech sector, with much of which has been holding on to most of its recent gains. When a stock starts trading out of sync with its peers, it usually tells you something specific is weighing on it.

In Amazon's case, that something has just become a lot clearer. It was reported last week that the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has drafted a potential complaint against the company, alleging it misled advertisers through hidden ad pricing practices, and the penalty could run into the billions.

This isn’t the first time that Amazon has run afoul of the FTC, and if recent history is anything to go by, investors are right to be worried. The question is how much?

What the FTC Is Actually Looking At

At the heart of the investigation is whether Amazon properly disclosed the terms and pricing of its advertising auctions, particularly a feature called "reserve pricing" for certain search ads. In simple terms, that's the minimum price an advertiser has to accept before they're able to buy an ad. The argument is that Amazon didn't make these mechanics fully clear, leaving advertisers paying more than they otherwise might have.

It's worth noting that this isn't an entirely new line of inquiry. The FTC's consumer protection unit has been looking into whether both Amazon and Alphabet NASDAQ: GOOGL misled advertisers placing ads on their respective platforms for some time now. What's changed is that the investigation into Amazon has now reportedly progressed to the point where a formal complaint has been drafted, which is a meaningful step up the regulatory ladder, and this is clearly spooking investors.

Amazon Has Been Here Before

What makes this story particularly relevant for Amazon’s investors is the recent history. Just last September, the FTC secured a historic $2.5 billion settlement against Amazon over allegations that it had enrolled millions of consumers in its Prime program without their consent and made it deliberately difficult for them to cancel. A settlement of that scale makes it very clear just what the FTC thinks it can extract when it sets its sights on Amazon.

For the latest investigation, it’s a useful reference point for thinking about the worst-case scenario. If the FTC was able to secure $2.5 billion in penalties and refunds for the Prime enrollment issue, the potential downside from a misleading-advertisers complaint could be similar, or even larger, given the size and complexity of Amazon's advertising business.

Even for a company of Amazon's scale, that would be a significant amount of money, and it’d come at a time when Amazon’s outgoings are already under the microscope.

A Worrying Near-Term Setup

From that perspective, this update from the FTC couldn't really have come at a worse moment for Amazon's stock. As we've covered recently, the company has been grappling with a free cash flow squeeze from its enormous AI capital expenditure commitments, a high-profile Blue Origin rocket explosion that set back its satellite ambitions, and a broader cooling in sentiment across mega-cap tech. Adding regulatory uncertainty to that pile is the kind of thing that can keep a stock under pressure for longer than the underlying business deserves.

There’s also the risk that while an eventual settlement could come this summer, it could also just as easily turn into a drawn-out legal battle that dominates the headlines for many quarters to come. Neither of those is ideal for shareholders who have been waiting for the stock to find its footing.

The Long-Term Bull Case Hasn't Changed

Still, for those willing to look beyond the next few months, the long-term case for Amazon remains as strong as ever. AWS continues to grow at a remarkable pace and is increasingly central to the AI infrastructure buildout. The advertising business itself, the very thing now under scrutiny, is one of the fastest-growing high-margin revenue streams in the company. The deepening Anthropic relationship and the wave of analyst price targets sitting comfortably above $300 all speak to a long-term picture that an FTC complaint, even a multi-billion-dollar one, doesn't materially change.

The current weakness is uncomfortable, no question, and the near term could get worse before it gets better. But Amazon has a long history of absorbing regulatory blows and compounding value over time. For those willing to pinch their noses in the near term, this weakness could be a gift in the long term.