Martinrea International Q2 2024 Earnings Report

Martinrea International EPS Results

• Actual EPS: C$0.58
• Consensus EPS: C$0.61
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -C$0.03
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

Martinrea International Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $1.30 billion
• Expected Revenue: $1.33 billion
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$25.21 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Martinrea International Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q2 2024
• Date: 8/6/2024
• Time: N/A
• Conference Call Date: Tuesday, August 6, 2024
• Conference Call Time: 5:30PM ET

Martinrea International (TSE:MRE) Inc is a Canadian producer of steel and aluminium parts and fluid management systems. Its products are used primarily in the automotive sector by the majority of vehicle manufacturers. Martinrea manufactures aluminum engine blocks, specialized products, suspensions, chassis modules and components, and fluid management systems for fuel, power steering and brake fluids. The company also provides metal forming and welding solutions. The largest end market for Martinrea's products is in North America.

Martinrea International Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Record Q2 performance: Martinrea delivered a new quarterly high with adjusted EBITDA of $166 million, adjusted EPS of $0.58 and a 6.3% operating margin, up 30 basis points from Q1.
• The company reaffirmed its 2024 guidance of $5.0–5.3 billion in sales, a 5.7%+ margin target and $100–150 million of free cash flow (ex-IFRS 16), with cash generation weighted to the back half.
• Slower-than-expected EV program ramps have led to underutilized capacity; Martinrea is negotiating customer contracts to recover volume shortfalls and inflationary costs, with subdued EV volumes likely to persist.
• Martinrea secured $125 million in new annualized business at mature volumes—$75 million in Lightweight Structures with OEMs like Volvo and GM and $50 million in Propulsion with Ford.
• In Q2 the company generated ~$108 million in operating cash, invested $53 million in capex, returned capital via dividends and repurchased ~2 million shares, keeping net debt/EBITDA at 1.49× within target.

Presentation

[Operator]

Participants, thank you for standing by. The conference is ready to begin. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Martinrea International Q2 2024 Results Conference Call. Instructions for submitting questions will be provided to you later in the call. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Rob Wildeboer. Please go ahead, sir.

[Rob Wildeboer, Executive Chairman at Martinrea International]

Good evening, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. We always look forward to talking with our shareholders. We hope to inform you well and answer questions. We also note that we have many other stakeholders, including many employees, on the call, and our remarks are addressed to them as well as we disseminate our results and commentary through our network. With me tonight are Pat D'Eramo, Martinrea's CEO, our President, Fred Di Tosto, and our new Chief Financial Officer, Peter Cirulis. As you know, Peter is new to the call. Going forward, we will generally all be on the call to address questions you may have, but we'll balance out the presentations. Sometimes all will say a few words, sometimes not all. We'll provide a variety for you.

[Rob Wildeboer, Executive Chairman at Martinrea International]

Today, we will be discussing Martinrea's results for the quarter ended June 30, 2024, a solid quarter, as you see from our press release. I refer you to our usual disclaimer in our press release and filed documents. First, Pat will make some comments, then Fred, then Peter, then me, then we'll do Q&A. And now, here's Pat.

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

Thanks, Rob. Good evening, everyone. As noted in our press release, we generated an adjusted net earnings per share of CAD 0.58 and an adjusted EBITDA of CAD 166 million in the Q2, a new record for the company. Adjusted operating income margin came in at 6.3%, 30 basis points better than our Q1 on similar production sales quarter-over-quarter. A nice improvement. Operationally, we're performing well. We continue to effectively manage the larger headwinds. Supply constraints, inflationary cost pressures, and tight labor markets are generally improving. The slower-than-expected ramp-up in electric vehicle programs has resulted in underutilized capacity across the automotive industry. We are able to mitigate some of the volume reductions with many of our customer contracts, some of which include volume adjustments, capital paid upfront, or recovery early in the contract term, along with other measures.

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

We continue to progress related to our commercial negotiations with customers. In addition to obtaining compensation for EV volume shortfalls, we may seek compensation for some ongoing inflationary items. We expect this activity to continue for the foreseeable future, as EV volumes are likely to remain at lower levels for at least the next couple of years. In North America, our results are consistent quarter-over-quarter on steady production sales. In general, we're performing well in North America, both operationally and financially. Our U.S. plants have led a lot of the post-pandemic improvement. In Europe, we have made progress improving our operations, and our restructuring efforts are bearing fruit. Overall, we're happy with the performance in Europe, considering the volumes in this segment, mainly EVs, remaining well below plan levels.

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

Turning to our Rest of the World segment, results were better quarter-over-quarter as we are now ramping up on a new program with BMW in China. In addition, we have had some favorable commercial settlements. This segment is smaller relative to the other operations, which we view as a benefit in the current environment. Overall, our performance was steady both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. We have capacitized for a higher level of business, so it will take time to get margins back to pre-pandemic levels. Having said that, operations are solid, we are launching better with every program, and our margins are up, as you have seen in Q2.

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

Moving on, I'm pleased to announce that we've been awarded new business worth $125 million in annualized sales at mature volumes, which include $75 million in our Lightweight Structures Commercial Group, consisting of various structural components with multiple customers, including Volvo, Honda, Mercedes, General Motors, along with some others, and $50 million in our Propulsion Systems Group with Ford. Overall, we're pleased with our Q2 performance. While EV softness and higher interest rates are resulting in a relatively flat year-over-year industry production volume profile, we expect 2024 will be a good year with steady production sales and strong positive free cash flow. Looking out longer term, we are well positioned within our industry.

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

First, while we are not immune to the EV slowdown and that it affects the short term, the fact that we are mostly propulsion agnostic enables us to adapt to any mix of vehicles over the long term. Our products apply to all vehicle types and architectures. This is relevant, particularly in the context of the current political environment in the United States, given the stark contrast and views on EV mandates between the Democrats and Republicans in an election year. Next, interest rates, although higher than recent historical standards, appear to have peaked. They are already coming down in Canada and seem likely to come down in the United States as well. This means vehicle affordability should improve, which bodes well for the future production volumes and sales.

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

Lastly, our North American-centric orientation and limited footprint in China is a positive, given the current geopolitical environment, the trend towards reshoring or nearshoring of supply chains, the USMCA, and the fact that the environment in China has become more challenging for foreign OEMs, who are losing market share to domestic brands. For all those reasons, we believe we are well-positioned in this environment. With that, I would like to thank the entire Martinrea team for their hard work and dedication in these continued challenging times. Here's Fred.

[Fred Di Tosto, President at Martinrea International]

Thanks, Pat, and good evening, everyone. As Pat noted, our Q2 results were strong, consistent with the prior quarter and generally in line with our expectations. Overall, we are driving a healthy level of free cash flow from the business that we believe is sustainable. We're executing on our capital allocation priorities, including returning capital to shareholders through substantial share buyback activity in the quarter, and our balance sheet remains in great shape. We held our AGM back in June, where we discussed, among other things, our performance relative to some of our peers. To summarize the discussion, our financial metrics are among the best in our industry, with trailing 12 month margins and free cash flow generation as a percentage of sales that are among the best in our peer group, and a leverage ratio in the lower range of our industry peers as of Q1.

[Fred Di Tosto, President at Martinrea International]

This is a notable achievement and something that just doesn't get noticed enough, quite frankly. I'm very proud of our team and the work they have done in delivering this performance. Switching gears, as many of you know, I recently stepped away from the CFO role, but I continue to serve the company as president, overseeing the operations of some of the more strategic aspects of the business. It's been an honor serving as CFO for the last 13 years, as it continues to be an honor to serve as president. I plan to remain active on the investor relations side, so I'll continue to participate on our earnings calls as well as investor conferences and meetings moving forward. At this point, I'd like to introduce Peter Cirulis, our new Chief Financial Officer.

[Fred Di Tosto, President at Martinrea International]

Peter has over 30 years experience in the automotive parts industry and has been with Martinrea since 2018, most recently as Executive Vice President of our Aluminum Group and Head of our Lightweight Structures Commercial Group. Prior to joining Martinrea, Peter worked with Dana Incorporated in a variety of operational and financial roles, including Vice President of Finance and Operational Excellence for Dana's Commercial Vehicle Group, a role in which he reported to Pat. Before that, he worked for Robert Bosch in a variety of financial leadership roles. It has been an absolute pleasure working with Peter over the last 6 years. I am confident that the finance function will be in strong hands under Peter's leadership, and that is a good move for our company and our business. In addition to being CFO, Peter will remain Head of our Lightweight Structures Commercial Group.

[Fred Di Tosto, President at Martinrea International]

This will provide the right balance of financial and operational experience in the role. Without further ado, here's Peter to discuss the Q2 financial results in more detail.

[Peter Cirulis, CFO at Martinrea International]

Thanks, Fred. I'm excited about my new role at the company. I look forward to meeting many of you. Taking a closer look at the results quarter-over-quarter, we generated an adjusted operating income of CAD 81.6 million, up slightly from CAD 79.2 million that we generated in Q1 on similar level of production sales. Tooling sales declined by over 40% quarter-over-quarter, as they continued to moderate from the elevated levels that we saw in 2023, as expected. Adjusted operating income margin came in at 6.3%, up 30 basis points quarter-over-quarter, largely reflecting the decline in tooling sales, which generally carry low margins. Note that adjusted operating income excludes CAD 5.4 million in restructuring charges, as expected and discussed on the last call, reflecting some rightsizing activity across our operations.

[Peter Cirulis, CFO at Martinrea International]

We have essentially concluded this exercise, although we continue to evaluate ways to drive additional cost out of the business. Moving on, Adjusted Net Earnings per Share came in at CAD 0.58. After taking into account net foreign exchange rate fluctuations, which were a bigger tailwind in Q1 than Q2, Adjusted EPS was fairly consistent quarter-over-quarter. We also experienced a higher effective tax rate in Q2 compared to Q1. Free Cash Flow before IFRS 16 lease payments came in at CAD 51.7 million, higher than the -CAD 1.4 million in Q1, reflecting the typical seasonality in working capital flows. However, it's also a significant improvement over the CAD 26.5 million of Free Cash Flow we generated in Q2 of 2023, reflecting lower capital spending.

[Peter Cirulis, CFO at Martinrea International]

Excluding lease payments under IFRS 16 accounting, Q2 2024 free cash flow was CAD 38.3 million, compared to CAD 14.6 million in Q2 of last year. As we indicated on the last call, the CAD 100 million to 150 million of free cash flow, excluding lease payments, that we expect to generate in 2024, is expected to be weighted to the back half of the year, which is consistent with the 2023 experience. Now, looking at our performance on a year-over-year basis, Q2 adjusted operating income of CAD 81.6 million was largely consistent with Q2 of last year on production sales that were roughly flat. Our adjusted operating income margin of 6.3% was up 20 basis points from the 6.1% generated in Q2 of last year.

[Peter Cirulis, CFO at Martinrea International]

I refer you to our Q2 MD&A for commentary on our year-over-year variances. Overall, the results were consistent year-over-year, though free cash flow was a lot better, as I just noted. Now, turning to our balance sheet, net debt, again, excluding IFRS 16 lease liabilities, decreased by approximately CAD 4 million quarter-over-quarter to CAD 852 million. This reflects the free cash flow profile for the quarter, as previously outlined, as well as the funding of approximately CAD 7.3 million in cash restructuring costs and roughly CAD 24 million spent to repurchase approximately 2 million shares through our normal course issuer bid during the quarter. Our net debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio ended the quarter at 1.49 times, down slightly from the 1.51 times at the end of Q1, 2024.

[Peter Cirulis, CFO at Martinrea International]

Our leverage ratio remains within our long-term target range of 1.5 times or better, and we intend to maintain our leverage within that range over time. Turning to our 2024 outlook, it remains unchanged, and we're on track to meet it based upon our year-to-date performance. As a reminder, our 2024 outlook calls for total sales between CAD 5 billion and CAD 5.3 billion, an adjusted operating income margin of between 5.7% and 6.2%, and a free cash flow, excluding IFRS 16 lease payments, of between CAD 100 million to 150 million. Lease payments are currently running at approximately CAD 13 million per quarter, so the free cash flow outlook, including IFRS 16 lease payments, is roughly CAD 50 million to 100 million.

[Peter Cirulis, CFO at Martinrea International]

Looking at the back half of the year, we're starting to see a return of the more normal seasonal pattern within our industry, where sales are higher in the first half of the year and lower in the second. Compared to the last few years, we are now seeing OEMs taking seasonal shutdowns in more of their operations this summer, as supply chains have improved and production has stabilized. As we indicated on the last call, we expect to generate the bulk of our free cash flow for the year in the second half, given the typical seasonal unwind of working capital within our industry. Overall, we expect a solid year, both financially and operationally, and we continue to perform at a high level, and our balance sheet is in great shape. With that, I turn you now over back to Rob.

[Rob Wildeboer, Executive Chairman at Martinrea International]

Thanks, Peter. A final brief note related to capital allocation. Our approach is described in an investor note on our website. In Q2, we generated approximately CAD 108 million in cash from operations. Capital expenditures were about CAD 53 million as we continued to invest in support of new business wins and incremental equipment needs. Next, we paid our usual dividend to our shareholders, approximately CAD 4 million, CAD 16 million on an annualized basis. Lastly, and as Peter noted, we purchased approximately 2 million shares for cancellation under our normal course issuer bid, representing about 2.5% of the outstanding shares of the company. Total cash spent was approximately CAD 24 million. We believe our stock's a great investment, particularly at the current valuation, which is near its historic low on a multiples basis.

[Rob Wildeboer, Executive Chairman at Martinrea International]

We intend to continue to buy back some stock at these levels. To summarize, we've invested in our business, made some positive strategic investments, kept our balance sheet strong, and returned capital to shareholders in the quarter with our dividends and buyback. In terms of allocating capital, we will consider anything that makes Martinrea better, but not at the expense of our strong financial status. We believe consistent free cash flow generation is the road to a higher valuation. Finally, a big thank you to our people. Thank you for your dedication every day. I note that many of our plants have won supplier quality and other awards from customers in the last 12 months. Our people are performing very well. Their dedication and ingenuity underpin our numbers. Now it's time for questions.

[Rob Wildeboer, Executive Chairman at Martinrea International]

We see we have shareholders, analysts, employees, and even some competitors on the phone, so we may have to be a little careful with our answers, but we'll answer what we can. Thank you all for calling in.

[Operator]

Thank you. We'll now take questions from the telephone lines. If you have a question, please press star one on your device's keypad. You may cancel your question at any time by pressing star two. The first question is from Tamy Chen from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

[Tamy Chen, Equity Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for the question. Starting with Europe here, can you talk a bit about that segment? I think generally, we were expecting, particularly on the customer recoveries, I think historically, that's been more back half weighted, but, you know, the first half of this year, that segment's been quite strong. So can you just talk a bit about how we should think of the performance in the first half of this year and what to expect in the back half?

[Rob Wildeboer, Executive Chairman at Martinrea International]

So generally speaking, I think, one of the biggest headwinds we've been dealing with, in the EV volumes, in particular, with some of our core customers there. So expect that to continue in the foreseeable future, as we've noted. So that's, it's a bit of a headwind. I think in the front half of the year, we did benefit some commercial settlements, and I expect that to normalize in the back half of the year. We've always said that Europe in general, compared to North America, will always be a lower margin of segment for us, and we expect that to be the case this year.

[Rob Wildeboer, Executive Chairman at Martinrea International]

Although, you know, we've made some improvements there, done some restructuring, so we're expecting, you know, the segment to perform at a reasonable level, considering some of the long items that we're dealing with.

[Tamy Chen, Equity Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Got it. Okay. And on the recoveries in general, I think, you know, you were alluding to, with respect to electric vehicles, volumes, they'll probably be lower for some time. The general sense in terms of negotiating for these recoveries going forward, or should we expect that, it's still similar amount, or are you finding that will normalize itself as well relative to the last few years, that you've received?

[Peter Cirulis, CFO at Martinrea International]

Sure, Tamy. Thanks for the question. I would expect that the commercial recoveries continue as a part of our, as a part of our normal business for the foreseeable future, given the fact that you mentioned the EV landscape looks a little bit rocky at the moment. So, currently, we're tracking to a, to a run rate, I would say, that's similar to the recent past, so it's, it's expected to be a continuing part of our business going forward.

[Rob Wildeboer, Executive Chairman at Martinrea International]

Yeah, and I think there's maybe a bit of a change in some of the things that we're trying to address. So, you know, look at the past, it was more geared to recoveries on inflationary cost increases. There's still some of that going forward. Managed to bake some in into piece price, but not in all cases. So we're gonna continue to negotiate those as we move forward here. And, you know, a lot more of the activity now is related to the long shortfalls that we're dealing with.

[Tamy Chen, Equity Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Got it. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Thank you. The next question is from Krista Friesen from CIBC. Please go ahead.

[Krista Friesen, Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst at CIBC]

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I was just wondering if you could speak to your guidance. So you've been able to hold it this quarter, you held it last quarter, in the face of production forecasts, kind of coming down for this year. And given, I think, the industry typically has 20% to 25% decremental margins, can you speak to how you've been able to hold that guide and mitigate some of these, these forecasted numbers that aren't as great as they were at the beginning of the year?

[Peter Cirulis, CFO at Martinrea International]

Yeah. Thank you very much, Kris. So we'll be consistent with our guidance at this point. As we've mentioned in previous calls as well, we have some commercial activities which are a little bit, let's say, lumpy, as you might say, quarter-to-quarter. So those will, as I mentioned in the previous question, those will continue into the Q3 and Q4. So we expect that some of those commercial activities also keep us consistent with the guidance, despite some of the inventory build that you mentioned. We know also that the SAAR was the highest it's been in July at 16.7 million vehicles, so we're seeing some strength there, if you will.

[Peter Cirulis, CFO at Martinrea International]

Going into the second half, we'll remain consistent with our guidance.

[Rob Wildeboer, Executive Chairman at Martinrea International]

Yeah, I think it was 15.8 in July, the U.S. SAAR.

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

I think the most important thing, though, is understand the forecast, and the forecasts have been wrong every year for the last four years. So

[Rob Wildeboer, Executive Chairman at Martinrea International]

Yeah, the one thing, as we said in our remarks, the traditional approach to the industry, pre-COVID was pretty strong Q1. Q2 was often the strongest quarter. Q3, you saw adjustments, particularly in North America, as OEMs did some shutdowns. And then Q4 tended to also see some of that, depending on where inventory levels stood at the end of the year.

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

And holidays.

[Rob Wildeboer, Executive Chairman at Martinrea International]

Yeah, and I think there's some uncertainty as to the second half of the year. Typically, the first half of the year, and I say typically pre-COVID, first half of the year was generally better than the second half, and we may see some of that. I think there's some questions out there as how do customers deal with inventory levels, how do they deal with incentives and that type of thing, and we just gotta work through it. The other reason that our numbers are pretty good is our operations are running very well right now, and we've spent a lot of time focused on that. You know, there's a reason that, you know, we have the margin profile that we do. Our operations, for the most part, are running well.

[Krista Friesen, Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst at CIBC]

Okay, great. Thank you for the answer, and, I'll jump back in the queue. Thanks.

[Rob Wildeboer, Executive Chairman at Martinrea International]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. The next question is from Michael Glen from Raymond James. Please go ahead.

[Michael Glen, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Raymond James]

Hey, good evening. So just looking at the operating margin guidance, like, is there a path to. We're talking about the business, like seasonality, returning to something that looks like pre-COVID. Is there also a path that you—we can think about this business as a whole, getting back to pre-COVID operating margin levels?

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

Yeah, I think over time, certainly, that's our target. You know, our biggest headwind has been the inflationary cost, which we've recovered, you know, quite a bit of that and put a lot of it into the piece prices, Fred earlier indicated. But as new models or new launches come on stream and old ones drop off, that becomes the best opportunity to get your piece price back in order like it was pre-COVID, and that takes a couple of years. We'll continue to work on it, you know, between now and then on current models, and certainly any extensions gives you an opportunity as well. And we are starting to see a number of extensions given the EV shortfalls.

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

But, it still takes that drop-off of, you know, current generation of vehicle as you launch the new one, to really solidify that. You know, operationally, as I said, we're running, you know, as good as we've run, at least in my 10 years here. So it's really about gathering up some of these other, stones and, you know, putting them out to pasture before we can, you know, say we're back at that 8% type level or better.

[Rob Wildeboer, Executive Chairman at Martinrea International]

Yeah, in a broad sense, the industry's got to sort itself out, right? So we've got EV mandates in some places that kind of distort the market. We've got people buying hybrids, we've got ICE vehicles. To a certain extent, that creates distortions in the market, and ultimately, the consumer is gonna decide. We're very propulsion agnostic for the most part, as we've noted. But at the same time, you know, it's very important that we don't just lurch from model to model and trend to trend and everything else. And I think that that's one of the clouds overhanging the industry as we work through it. But ultimately, the overall volume of vehicles is probably going to be very solid for the rest of the decade, and we're poised to deal with it.

[Rob Wildeboer, Executive Chairman at Martinrea International]

It's just, you know, gets a little lumpy when somebody launches a new model, whatever it is, and the volume is 25% or 40% of what's predicted, and that's what's, that's what's hurting a lot of people, including OEMs, these days.

[Michael Glen, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Raymond James]

When you bid now, would you say that the way you bid, and I'm sort of—and I'm not really focused on the EV dynamic here, but just on. Like, when you bid on a contract now, is it substantially the same form as you would have bid pre-COVID, or is there meaningful differences now versus how you would have bid then?

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

There are definitely meaningful differences. First off, relative to EVs, as we've said in the past, we worked some more dynamics into a number, not all, but a number of our contracts as far as the, you know, volume protection and, capital upfront, just depending on who we were dealing with. So that helps somewhat. It doesn't cure the problem of the current, lack of volume, but it certainly helps a bit. I would say that in general, a lot of suppliers, as well as the OEMs, have put a lot of money out on the table over the last few years and aren't happy with the current volumes. What that means in terms of an OEM purchasing person is, suppliers in general, including ourselves, are being pickier about what they decide to bid on.

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

And what we do bid on, we want to make sure we hit our hurdle rates. So, I would say that we are definitely moved from what can we win? How can we grow? What can we win? To, well, let's be selective, let's be smart, let's continue to grow, but let's ensure we hit our hurdle rates. And, so there's more discipline in the system than I've ever seen, frankly, in my almost 40 years. So I think that's opportunity—you know, that's opportunity at the end of the day for us.

[Michael Glen, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Raymond James]

Okay. And I'll just ask another question here. Like, for Europe, it's trending well so far this year, but it has been showing volatility and, you know, the market does look to be quite difficult. Like, when you look at your business in Europe, like, how core do you view that to Martinrea?

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

I think that the customers in Europe are important. They're global. They're in North America as well as in Europe. But I, you know, it certainly has its challenges over there. As Fred said, you know, we don't expect the same margin profile in Europe as we do in North America, but we do have the same customers, and they're important customers. You know, they tend to do a pretty good job, I'll say, EVs aside, of predicting their volumes and hitting their volumes, and that's, you know, from a supplier point of view, that's a blessing. So it's important to us. But you know, growth in Europe, I would say, would have to be, you know, very disciplined and very attractive for us, especially in Western Europe, to pursue something like that.

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

But we're happy with our current footprint. If something comes along and says, "Hey, this is a great deal," then, you know, we might look at it. But in the moment, it's important but pretty stable. I think the biggest issue in Europe, as Fred said, is the lack of EV sales that were expected there, because, you know, most people thought Europe would run away with it, similar to China, but that has not been the case so far.

[Michael Glen, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Raymond James]

Okay, thanks for taking the questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. As a reminder, you may press star one if you have a question. The next question is from Brian Morrison from TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

[Brian Morrison, Stock Analyst at TD Cowen]

Oh, thanks very much. Good evening. Rob, I think you mentioned the supply of inventory was a little high, and certainly it seems that way, that, at your big OEMs, your D3. I'm just wondering maybe if you could talk about or, or Pat could talk about the production visibility you have on your key programs with these OEMs and the potential for an extended summer shutdown.

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

Didn't hear the last part of the question on the shutdown.

[Brian Morrison, Stock Analyst at TD Cowen]

I'm just wondering if there's a potential for an extended summer shutdown to normalize the inventories a little bit?

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

No, I don't think we'll see anything change so much in the summer than what's normally planned. I think if there's any type of adjustment at all this year, it would be into December. You know, they might extend, you know, Christmas shutdown or something like that, but we haven't seen it so far. Again, there's some anticipation, as we've already said, that the second half's gonna lower a little bit, but again, you know, forecasts, the one thing that's been great about the forecasts is that they're wrong constantly and consistently once we got into the pandemic. So no one's been able to harness and understand that just yet. And I understand why, because there was a tremendous anticipation that EVs were going to rocket, which they didn't, and so there's a lot of adjustment going on.

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

But, you know, so far, our volumes, at least in the, you know, Q2, Q3, have been relatively stable, and we haven't seen any major fluctuation yet. Certainly-

[Brian Morrison, Stock Analyst at TD Cowen]

Okay.

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

Certainly, the stability this year has been substantially better than the stability of 2023 and 2022.

[Rob Wildeboer, Executive Chairman at Martinrea International]

Yeah, the other thing is, as we look forward, it's not really a quarter-by-quarter basis. I know that that's how we report, and we tend to look at it on a broader basis. The OEMs will adjust at some point when volumes are lower. Once again, our longer-term view is actually pretty bullish on North America. We think the U.S. economy, despite the labor numbers that came out, is in pretty good shape. We think that the average age of the vehicle is now approaching 13 years. There's a lot of demand there. We think there's pent-up demand. We think that one of the reasons for the inventory build is perhaps that the customers have to recognize they can't quite charge as much for a vehicle as they could have in the pandemic and sort those things out.

[Rob Wildeboer, Executive Chairman at Martinrea International]

Overall, there's good underlying demand in the marketplace for the next number of years.

[Peter Cirulis, CFO at Martinrea International]

The other thing we highlighted is, you know, the interest rate environment. I think it's pretty clear right now that rates are going down. Depending on how fast that happens, that can have an end. But whether it starts impacting the back half this year to be determined, but I think at some point, that will-

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

I think it'll really depend on what the OEMs are willing to put on the hood. You know, they've been blessed during the pandemic with amazing margins on their products and not having to put any money on the hood, to now they've got to make the determination: Do I do it? How much do I do it? And do I wanna get back to my old habits, or do I wanna at least have a hybrid between the pandemic and now? And I think they're wrestling with that. But we are starting to see more money thrown on the hood of a lot of vehicles right now. So if that happens, it helps spur some sales as well.

[Brian Morrison, Stock Analyst at TD Cowen]

Right. Maybe if I can just take that one step further, then. When I think out to 2025, understanding there's gonna be low EV volumes, what are the key opportunities for you to take your margin guidance or increase your margins in 2025? Are we talking scale or operating efficiencies, pricing, contract extensions? What could be drivers that you could improve your margins next year?

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

Well, I mean, if the market stays flat, let's say, certainly our best opportunity is operational, continued operational improvement, which we still have some room. And, you know, recovery of some of the volume problems that Peter talked about earlier, as well as there's still some inflationary issues that we have not resolved a hundred percent, and we can continue to negotiate on that front as well. But I think, you know, if I was to say everything stays steady, I think operational improvement is probably our best opportunity.

[Rob Wildeboer, Executive Chairman at Martinrea International]

The other thing is, we look for margin improvement over time. I personally think the EV market, and the hybrid market, and the ICE market are gonna be lumpy over the next couple of years, but we're gonna sort it out, and I think that's where real opportunity is over time.

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

We've got some really exciting things going on on the manufacturing side that, you know, that we're just getting started on beyond our normal lean discussion, that can really have some significant impact over time. Made some organizational changes to enhance that, as far as adding different types of technology into our lines that can improve their efficiency, along with our lean activity that's been ongoing, that I think, over the next few years, can make a pretty good impact.

[Brian Morrison, Stock Analyst at TD Cowen]

Yeah-

[Peter Cirulis, CFO at Martinrea International]

One other thing to add, as customers move through their, let's say, EV plan, there's gonna be some extension of the ICE programs. And as these ICE programs extend, it's always, obviously easier to keep producing a product that you don't need to launch on. You avoid a lot of startup costs that way as well. So that's an opportunity for us going forward, through this EV transition.

[Peter Cirulis, CFO at Martinrea International]

Those extensions offer you an opportunity to also reprice your products.

[Peter Cirulis, CFO at Martinrea International]

Right, for inflation.

[Brian Morrison, Stock Analyst at TD Cowen]

You could see that in 2025?

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

Yeah. Yeah, we're already getting a lot of requests for extensions. We've got some extensions already underway. There are a lot that we believe will come to pass. They just haven't yet. But, you know, the OEMs need to make product, and if people aren't buying EVs, and they're still buying ICE products, you're gonna see an effort to extend wherever they can, in my view.

[Brian Morrison, Stock Analyst at TD Cowen]

Okay. And Peter-

[Peter Cirulis, CFO at Martinrea International]

Just one thing to note, I wanna, you know, wanna be clear that these discussions and negotiations aren't easy.

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

Yeah.

[Peter Cirulis, CFO at Martinrea International]

I mean, they're difficult discussions.

[Brian Morrison, Stock Analyst at TD Cowen]

No, no.

[Peter Cirulis, CFO at Martinrea International]

There's work to be done in being able to tap into those type of opportunities.

[Pat D'Eramo, CEO at Martinrea International]

It's true.

[Brian Morrison, Stock Analyst at TD Cowen]

Yeah, understood. Thank you. Last question, Peter, an easy one for your first call, but what's your tax rate for the year? Obviously, it looked like you had a pretty high tax rate, maybe mid-29s or 29-point-something. What's your forecast tax rate for the year, please?

[Peter Cirulis, CFO at Martinrea International]

Yeah. So, good question, Brian. So the Mexican peso exchange, you know, had a significant impact, as you can see, on our ETR in the quarter, both by the weakening of the peso here, just quickly and recently. Right, so we would expect that that same impact carries forward into the second half of the year. I mean, exchange rates are always volatile, unpredictable, and so forth, but it would be expected to be higher here going into the into the rest of the year.

[Brian Morrison, Stock Analyst at TD Cowen]

Okay, thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the meeting back over to Mr. Rob Wildeboer.

[Rob Wildeboer, Executive Chairman at Martinrea International]

Thank you. Thank you all for coming on and asking questions and having a discussion. As we end the call, let me summarize three takeaways for you. One, propulsion agnosticism supports solid results in a volatile EV environment. I think we had a really good discussion about how we see it, and we think it's gonna play out in that way. We're producing good results with solid margins and free cash flow again this year, and we think there's value in the stock. If any of you have further questions or would like to discuss any of the issues concerning Martinrea, the contacts are on the press release, and feel free to talk to any of us or Neil Forster. Have a great evening.

[Operator]

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

Participants

Executives

• Fred Di Tosto, President
• Pat D'Eramo, CEO
• Peter Cirulis, CFO
• Rob Wildeboer, Executive Chairman

Analysts

• Brian Morrison, Stock Analyst at TD Cowen
• Krista Friesen, Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst at CIBC
• Michael Glen, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Raymond James
• Tamy Chen, Equity Analyst at BMO Capital Markets