HubSpot Just Crushed the Bear Case—Is a Bigger Rally Ahead?

Key Points

• HubSpot shares have surged more than 50% from the multi-year low set last month, closing at their highest level since March after a strong showing at a major AI conference.
• The company's most recent earnings delivered impressive revenue growth, and it hit GAAP profitability for the first time—fundamentals that don't exactly match the SaaSpocalypse narrative.
• With analysts giving the stock fresh price targets pointing as much as 45% in additional upside, HubSpot looks like it could be the most compelling recovery trade in the software sector right now.

For much of the past year, the word "SaaSpocalypse" hung over the software sector like a storm cloud that refused to move on. The fear was understandable, based primarily on the assumption that artificial intelligence (AI) would render traditional software platforms obsolete, automating away the workflows that justified their subscription costs, and hollowing out the business models that had made SaaS investing so rewarding for so long. Few companies felt that fear more painfully than HubSpot Inc NYSE: HUBS, which just a few weeks ago had shed around 80% from its all-time high and was back trading at 2019 levels.

But over the past fortnight, something has started to shift in the SaaS space, and it's gathering momentum. Shares of Snowflake Inc NYSE: SNOW are ripping higher after convincing investors in its earnings report last week that its AI positioning is a strength rather than a liability. ServiceNow Inc NYSE: NOW, another big software name that was uninvestable for most of the past year, has gained nearly 50% since the middle of May for many of the same reasons.

It’s clear that the market is beginning to separate the software companies that are working with AI from those being disrupted by it, and the rewards for landing on the right side of that divide have been significant. HubSpot, which has surged more than 50% from the multi-year low it set earlier this month, is increasingly looking like the next name to make that crossing. Let's jump in and see just how good an opportunity it could be.

The SaaSpocalypse Hit HubSpot Hard, But the Tide May Be Turning

The bear case for HubSpot rested on the idea that AI would make the company’s traditional seat-count pricing obsolete, enable customers to build their own version of HubSpot’s CRM tools at a fraction of the cost, and gradually erode the value proposition that had made it the platform of choice for tens of thousands of small and mid-sized businesses over previous years.

However, this narrative is starting to crack. HubSpot presented at the Jefferies Software, Internet, and AI Conference last week, and, having leaned heavily into its agentic AI positioning, the company drew a strong market response. The stock has jumped sharply in the days since, hitting its highest level since March. That kind of price action following an AI-focused conference appearance is a signal worth taking seriously.

The Earnings Story Gives the Recovery a Real Foundation

What separates this sudden bounce from being a short-term hype-driven pop is the quality of the fundamental picture sitting underneath it. HubSpot’s most recent quarterly results, delivered in early May, were the strongest evidence yet that the SaaSpocalypse narrative had dragged the stock down to levels completely unjustified based on actual business performance.

Revenue grew 23% year over year, beating expectations by a meaningful margin. Operating margins expanded significantly. And crucially, HubSpot achieved GAAP profitability for the first time in its history, a milestone that reframes the conversation about what kind of company this actually is.

Management also raised full-year guidance and announced that it had hit its 2027 margin target a full year ahead of schedule. These aren’t exactly the metrics of a business being disrupted into irrelevance. They’re more like the metrics of a business re-finding its stride at exactly the moment the market had given up on it.

The AI Pivot Is Starting to Land

The big question that will determine where HubSpot goes from here is whether the market will lean into its AI story the way it has with Snowflake's and ServiceNow's. The evidence from the Jefferies conference and price action in the days since suggests that the process has already started.

The good news for those of us thinking about getting involved is that, even after a 50% surge from its lows, HubSpot is still trading at 2020 levels despite printing record quarterly revenue and possibly cracking the AI disruption narrative.

The analyst community appears to agree. Barclays, Truist, Raymond James, and Goldman Sachs have all reiterated Buy or equivalent ratings last month, with fresh price targets ranging up to $382, implying around 30% in additional upside from current levels.

If the SaaS recovery that has already rewarded Snowflake and ServiceNow so generously continues to broaden, HubSpot's combination of recovering fundamentals, an emerging AI narrative, and still-depressed valuation gives it more room to run than almost any other name in the sector. The low may well be in, and the question now is how far this rebound could go.