AST SpaceMobile’s Latest BlueBird Launch Raises the Stakes Ahead of Q2 Earnings

Key Points

• AST SpaceMobile successfully launched BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13, its largest satellites yet, advancing its goal of 45 LEO satellites by early 2027.
• The new satellites double AST SpaceMobile's peak download speeds to a range of 45 Mbps to 280 Mbps for direct-to-device partners like AT&T and Verizon.
• Investors are focused on the company's Aug. 10 Q2 earnings call after a wide Q1 miss and questions about a $1 billion note offering.

AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS has announced the successful launch of its most recent cohort of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites as the space-based cellular broadband network provider continues to make up ground en route to its early 2027 deployment target.

On Wednesday, Aug. 5, the SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX rival announced the successful launch of its three newest LEO satellites—BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13—which have joined its direct-to-device (D2D) constellation after deploying from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station at 3:42 a.m. via a Falcon 9 rocket.

According to an AST SpaceMobile press release, “BlueBird satellites 11, 12, and 13 are the largest communications arrays ever deployed in [LEO], more than three times the size of the company’s five initial Block 1 BlueBird satellites.”

The effort goes a long way toward meeting AST SpaceMobile’s goal of putting 45 BlueBirds into LEO by early 2027—an extension of the original target, which aimed for year’s end. Now, investors are turning their attention to the company’s Q2 earnings call, which is scheduled for Monday, Aug. 10, after the market closes.

BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13 Double Download Speed Capacity for D2D Partners

Wednesday’s deployment of BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13 marked another milestone for the company. AST SpaceMobile’s constellation is now capable of providing double its original peak D2D download speeds, which stood at 98.9 Mbps. Now, the company offers its partners download speeds ranging from 45 Mbps to 280 Mbps.

AST SpaceMobile has strategic agreements in place with telecom giants AT&T NYSE: T, Verizon Communications NYSE: VZ, Vodafone Group NASDAQ: VOD, real estate investment trust American Tower NYSE: AMT, Alphabet NASDAQ: GOOGL, Tokyo-based internet services company Rakuten OTCMKTS: RKUNY, and the U.S. federal government.

The company expects those partnerships and improved download speeds to contribute to better top-line performance as it transitions from technical demonstration to commercial revenue generation. CEO Abel Avellan highlighted that in the company’s press release, stating that “the successful launch of BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13 demonstrates the progress of a space-based cellular broadband network built for scale.”

In May, AST SpaceMobile issued upwardly revised full-year revenue guidance in the range of $150 million to $200 million, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $180.8 million.

As Launches Accelerate, Investors Set Sights on Earnings

The company is preparing for the launch of BlueBirds 14, 15, and 16 while advancing production through BlueBird 42. But shareholders of the space stock are now focusing on next Monday’s earnings call.

In May, AST SpaceMobile’s Q1 report was a galactic miss. Earnings per share (EPS) of -66 cents and revenue of $14.74 million both missed analyst expectations of -23 cents and $39.01 million, respectively, by wide margins.

The Q1 report wasn’t without its highlights. AST SpaceMobile reported a healthy balance sheet with approximately $3.5 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash as of March 31—positions that are likely to have improved in Q2 given the company’s recent private offering.

Another thing investors will be looking for from the Q2 earnings report is clarification about whether AST SpaceMobile intends to use its recent $1 billion private offering of senior convertible notes to invest in or acquire a launch services provider. That would provide the company with greater control over launch capacity and reduce long-term costs while improving EPS, which has missed analyst expectations for five consecutive quarters.

AST SpaceMobile already boasts vertical integration of 95%. Acquiring launch capacity would further that integration and, importantly, significantly drive down overhead tied to its reliance on third-party launch providers—including SpaceX and Jeff Bezos-founded Blue Origin—which come at a steep price.

Although AST SpaceMobile’s contracted Falcon 9 pricing is not publicly disclosed, assuming a negotiated rate of roughly $55 million to $65 million per launch, cumulative costs would exceed the $1 billion size of the private offering after approximately 16 to 19 launches.

Despite Notable Growth, Short-Term Concerns Remain

With a current beta of 2.75, ASTS is nearly three times as volatile as the broad market. That is something that shareholders have grown acclimated to, with the stock enduring a series of double-digit gains and losses throughout the 2026. Most recently, the stock has rallied 29% from its year-to-date low on July 29. Prior to that, shares fell by more than 60% from their all-time high on May 28.

That has provided abundant opportunities for bears. Current short interest stands at 19.33% of the float, or 59.3 million ASTS shares valued at nearly $4 billion. Additionally, insiders have exited positions in notable amounts over the past 12 months. Just two buys totaling around $187,000 have been significantly outpaced by seven sales totalling more than $451 million.

Longer term, the smart money is positioning for growth, evidenced by institutional inflows of $2.35 billion over the past 12 months against outflows of less than $483 million.

Continue following MarketBeat

Add MarketBeat as your preferred source on Google to see our latest stories in your feed.

Add As Preferred Source