Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. Target

Key Points

• U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
• Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
• Walmart's omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon's unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.

As Black Friday's reach now extends to Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday, and even the entire month of November in some cases, so too do retail sales.

The National Retail Federation estimates that the 2025 winter holidays (extending from November to December) will see more than $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time, an increase of between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024's figures. Despite the headwinds of waning consumer confidence and inflation, Black Friday remains an essential driver of retail sales at the start of the holiday season.

Three of the core retailers positioned to benefit from increased spending after Thanksgiving include Amazon.com Inc. NASDAQ: AMZN, Walmart Inc. NYSE: WMT, and Target Corp. NYSE: TGT. How will these retail giants fare in 2025, and which is likely to come out on top?

Amazon: The Online Juggernaut

In the United States, Amazon is the undisputed champion of online retail.

Although the e-commerce giant has focused on expanding its digital presence into cloud, ads, and other services in recent years, its retail business remains substantial. The company's Black Friday deals last for nearly two weeks, from November 20 to December 1, and include sales across all its categories, with electronics, toys, and beauty traditionally being among the top-selling products during this period.

In 2024, the company hosted its most successful Black Friday sales event to date. It also boasts the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer—a feat it has achieved every year for nearly a decade. Amazon's unprecedented variety and capacity to outcompete its rivals in pricing are largely thanks to its significant logistics advantages.

The firm is even preparing to utilize its vast distribution network to disrupt the grocery space, one of the few remaining areas in which brick-and-mortar stores have had an advantage up to this point.

Walmart: The Omnichannel King

Although initially a traditional retailer, Walmart has been one of the most successful legacy stores to pivot to a balanced strategy that combines both in-person shopping experiences and online retail.

This omnichannel approach serves the company well in both the U.S. and international markets, fueling some of its best-ever earnings reports in recent quarters. 

Walmart has even managed to entice some third-party sellers from Amazon's platform, making the company's e-commerce marketplace a key driver of overall sales growth. 

Furthermore, Walmart's robust fulfillment network enables it to price competitively and plan inventory strategically for both in-store and online sales. To top it off, the company enjoys one of the most loyal customer bases across leading retail companies.

Target: The Challenger

Though a household name, Target's much smaller size and profile compared with Amazon and Walmart mean that it has had to establish a niche to remain competitive when it comes to Black Friday performance.

The company focuses on curation—including a narrow third-party marketplace and offering a more selective selection of brands compared to other retailers.

This has helped the firm establish a reputation among shoppers for providing excellent value on quality items across various retail categories. Target's store pickup program, in which customers shop online but pick up their products in person at a physical store, gained popularity during the COVID-19 pandemic and has continued to be popular to this day.

Target faced challenges in recent quarters, including a widespread boycott when it rolled back its DEI program. The Black Friday sales period could be an opportunity for the company to either make a comeback or to fall further behind its competitors.

Key Metrics Comparison

On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Walmart has the most momentum heading into Black Friday. WMT shares are up about 14% this year, compared with gains of 8% for AMZN and a decline of about 34% for TGT.

Looking at holiday revenue estimates, Amazon forecasts fourth-quarter revenues between $206 billion and $213 billion; neither of the other two companies has provided public forecasts of their holiday revenues as of this writing. Amazon's online store sales for the latest quarter reached $67.4 billion, a 10% year-over-year (YOY) increase, representing approximately 63% of total sales for the period.

Walmart's latest annual report revealed $121 billion in online sales, accounting for just under 18% of total revenue during the period.

Although Target doesn't provide a similar breakdown in its sales data, digital comparable sales growth has recently far surpassed overall sales growth.

So, Who Wins Black Friday 2025?

With its broad-based omnichannel approach, strong customer base, and competitive pricing, it's hard to see how Walmart will not dominate the Black Friday retail race this year.

Investors keen to capitalize on the company's performance may find an opportunity to buy shares during a relatively inexpensive window ahead of its earnings release, expected on November 20, which will focus on the Black Friday sales period.

Looking at the broader retail landscape, however, Amazon may emerge as a leader. Not only is the company uniquely positioned to dominate across a much wider slate of products priced cheaper than its competitors, but it has the additional tailwinds of its AWS business and other cloud and advertising offerings.

Additionally, while Black Friday may not be a significant event outside of the United States, the general holiday season is very much so, and Amazon's massive international presence gives it another advantage.