Is the Memory Rally Still Alive After the Semiconductor Sell-Off?

Key Points

• The recent semiconductor selloff appears to be a valuation correction rather than a breakdown in long-term demand.
• Micron Technology's market cap grew to approximately $1.2 trillion, with massive year-over-year earnings growth in Q3 FY2026.
• The Roundhill Memory ETF has gained over 130% since its April 2 launch.

Investors are creatures of habit. They are influenced by behavioral finance, and their decisions are often driven by psychological factors, emotions, and cognitive biases. The result: choices that, in hindsight, could be regrettable.

That subjective decision-making was on full display last week, as the fear-driven semiconductor sell-off wiped out $2.7 trillion in market cap from some of the biggest winners over the past year.

But what we have learned is that those fears—warranted or not—have manifested before. And time and time again, the sellers are left on the sidelines as the tech sector bounces back.

The reality is that despite a series of all-time highs for the major indices, triple-digit gains for AI-leveraged stocks, and a concerning pattern of circular financing, the structural rally in memory chip makers remains intact.

Why Chip Stocks Sold Off Despite Strong AI Demand

Market contrarians have been on the lookout for the next bubble ever since the last one burst. But the ongoing AI-fueled bull market is not the same as the dot-com crash, which was notable for unsustainable valuations, untenable burn rates, and prioritizing growth over profitability.

Rather, the so-called AI bubble has proven to be multi-faceted and constantly evolving. And like any run-up in price, the latest pullback in chip stocks was less a symptom of an overextended market than it was a component of a healthy market cycle.

Still, jittery investors dumped shares over concerns about rising hardware input costs, debt spending, and ballooning CapEx.

Apple NASDAQ: AAPL, for instance, recently announced price hikes for Macs and iPads, directly attributing those increases to the memory chip shortage.

Gaming hardware is feeling the pressure as well. Microsoft NASDAQ: MSFT increased its XBOX console prices, and Nintendo OTCMKTS: NTDOY showed similar strain with a Switch 2 price increase set to take effect Sept. 1.

CapEx is another concern. A perceived rift between hyperscalers’ consumption and memory suppliers’ production has surfaced, with investors concerned about potential return-on-investment shortfalls.

Collectively, four of the biggest hyperscalers—Alphabet NASDAQ: GOOGL, Amazon NASDAQ: AMZN, Meta Platforms NASDAQ: META, and Microsoft—are on track to reach more than $700 billion in CapEx this year. But Wall Street isn’t convinced that that spending spree will materialize in earnings.

Analysts question whether that funding will result in near-term, high-margin revenue, given that those companies aren’t just paying for more hardware; they are paying vastly inflated prices. For example, during its Q3 FY2026 earnings call, Microsoft’s CFO Amy Hood disclosed that $25 billion of its projected $190 billion CapEx is being driven by component inflation rather than new capacity.

Still, even with trillions wiped out from memory chip market caps in June, the PHLX Semiconductor Index remains up more than 11% over the past month, nearly 99% year to date, and 157% over the past year. With the shortage forecast to last at least through 2028 while enjoying a compound annual growth rate of 11.6% through 2030, the recent pullback has proven to be a valuation correction rather than a breakdown in long-term demand.

The Proof in the Pudding for Micron and the Roundhill Memory ETF

In the first half of 2025, Micron Technology NASDAQ: MU was a little-known name. In Q1 FY2025, its market cap stood at just over $108 billion. Today, the company’s market cap is approximately $1.2 trillion, making it the 12th largest U.S.-listed company.

Micron has gained over 200% year-to-date and over 750% over the past 52 weeks. The company hasn’t missed on earnings since Q2 FY2023, and the company’s year-over-year earnings growth in Q3 FY2026 was over 1,358%.

Still, the stock carries a consensus Buy rating, a 12-month price target of more than 20% from current prices, and Micron announced gross margins of nearly 85% and earnings per share of $25.11 when it reported Q3 results on June 24.

Importantly, during its earnings call, the company said it signed 16 strategic customer agreements covering data center, consumer, auto, and other markets, which it believes will transform its business model, showing that demand isn’t being driven solely by hyperscalers.

Meanwhile, one thematic exchange-traded fund (ETF) continues to prove June’s panic-sellers wrong.

Less than two weeks after making its debut, MarketBeat profiled the Roundhill Memory ETF BATS: DRAM.

The ETF was designed explicitly to provide targeted exposure to the memory chip industry.

Since its launch on April 2, the fund has gained over 130% despite the recent and sizable sell-off.

For context, over the same period, Alphabet—the best Magnificent Seven performer—gained less than 21%, underscoring the raw growth potential of memory chip makers, the ETFs that track them, and the individual and semiconductor stocks that are in their baskets.

DRAM holds Micron, SK Hynix (which recently filed for its NASDAQ IPO), and Samsung OTCMKTS: SSNLF, which together are three of the newest members of the trillion market cap club. Icing the cake, the ETF also owns Sandisk NASDAQ: SNDK, Western Digital NASDAQ: WDC, and Seagate Technology NASDAQ: STX.