Grupo Supervielle NYSE: SUPV reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that management described as within its guidance range, while characterizing the period as a “transition quarter” marked by peak system-wide credit stress, margin recovery, and strengthened capital.
Chairman and CEO Patricio Supervielle said the company positioned its balance sheet for an expected industry recovery as Argentina moves from exceptionally tight monetary conditions toward gradual normalization following October elections. CFO Mariano Biglia added that November was a turning point in the quarter, as declining rates supported better margins into year-end.
Loan growth outpaced the system as retail exposure was moderated
Management highlighted continued loan growth that outperformed the broader system. Total loans grew 8% sequentially and 37% year-over-year, compared with 2% system growth sequentially, according to Biglia. Growth was driven by commercial lending, which expanded 25% quarter-over-quarter and 64% year-over-year, reaching 63% of the portfolio. The company said growth was concentrated in working capital and export-related sectors where risk-adjusted returns were attractive.
Retail loans declined 4% sequentially and increased 8% year-over-year. Executives said they tightened underwriting and moderated origination amid elevated rates and higher delinquency across the system, with an objective to return to a more balanced retail-corporate mix as conditions stabilize. In the Q&A, management reiterated that it remains prudent on retail growth and that a retail acceleration will depend on continued disinflation, lower nominal rates, improved consumer confidence (especially via jobs and disposable income), and eventually lower liquidity requirements.
Credit costs peaked as NPLs rose to 5%
Asset quality reflected what management called the peak of the stress cycle. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio increased to 5% from 3.9% in the prior quarter, which executives said was roughly in line with industry trends and influenced by system-wide delinquency and the seasoning of prior retail growth. Net cost of risk rose to 10.4% in the quarter (6.2% for the full year), and coverage was 112%.
Loan loss provisions increased 75% sequentially, which Biglia said was the primary driver of the quarter’s loss. He attributed the increase mainly to higher system-wide delinquency and, to a lesser extent, updated macroeconomic assumptions within the expected credit loss (ECL) framework under IFRS 9.
Despite the higher NPL ratio, management said late-year collection indicators began improving. Supervielle and Biglia pointed to branch-level collection and refinancing initiatives targeting individuals and SMEs, aimed at reducing migration into advanced delinquency buckets. They said these early indicators suggest fourth quarter likely marked the peak in provisioning under current assumptions, while the NPL ratio may temporarily peak in the first quarter of 2026 due to the lag between provisioning and loans reaching 90 days past due.
Margin recovery helped narrow losses; NIM rebounded
Grupo Supervielle posted an attributable net loss of ARS 19.5 billion (nearly ARS 20 billion), a significant improvement from the ARS 55 billion loss in the prior quarter. Management attributed the sequential improvement to margin recovery and cost discipline, even as provisioning remained elevated.
Biglia said client-led financial income increased 21% sequentially, driven by lower funding costs along with higher loan volumes and yields, despite a greater share of commercial loans in the mix. Market-related net financial income improved by ARS 85 billion sequentially, reflecting lower funding costs, improved spreading results as sovereign bond prices recovered, and normalized investment portfolio yields.
Net financial income reached ARS 246 billion in the quarter, up 82% sequentially and 1% year-over-year. Biglia cited three key drivers:
- Peso cost of funds declined by roughly 400 basis points as deposits repriced after market rates fell and wholesale funding was reduced.
- Market-related NIM improved to 26% from 11% in the prior quarter amid bond price recovery and a less volatile rate environment.
- Loan portfolio NIM improved 1.7 percentage points sequentially to 16.9% as the credit book was repriced.
On expenses, personnel, administrative costs, and depreciation and amortization increased 6% sequentially, which management partially attributed to seasonal factors and commercial initiatives. For the full year, however, expenses declined 9% in real terms, which the company cited as evidence of structural efficiency gains. Supervielle also noted personnel expenses declined 6% sequentially in the quarter.
Funding optimization and capital strength; no dividend expected after 2025 loss
Total deposits declined 6% sequentially as the company deliberately reduced higher-cost wholesale institutional funding to improve funding quality and reduce cost volatility. Management contrasted that with growth in core transactional balances: checking accounts rose 39% and retail savings accounts increased 29%, supported by December seasonality and the company’s remunerated account strategy. Year-over-year, retail and commercial deposits increased 17% in real terms, according to Biglia. Patricio Supervielle said a structural priority is growing CASA (current and savings) deposits through deeper primary relationships.
US dollar deposits increased 42% year-over-year, and management said the bank gained 60 basis points of market share in dollar deposits. In response to an analyst question about potential regulatory changes that could broaden dollar lending, management said it would remain cautious due to currency mismatch risk, while being open to selective opportunities with top-tier companies and appropriate protections.
Capital strengthened during the quarter, with CET1 rising to 15.4%, up 220 basis points quarter-over-quarter. In the Q&A, management explained that part of the increase reflected the reversal of prior off-balance-sheet losses as investment portfolio market prices improved in the fourth quarter, reducing deferred tax asset deductions from capital. Looking ahead, the company reiterated guidance for ending 2026 with a CET1 ratio between 11% and 13% as loan growth resumes. Management also said it does not expect to pay dividends in 2026 because 2025 results were negative, and that profits during 2026 would be reinvested.
2026 outlook: loan and deposit growth, NIM range, and ROE guidance
For 2026, management provided targets and expectations tied to a normalization cycle in Argentina. Key guidance items included:
- Real loan growth: 25% to 30%, led by corporate lending; retail expected to progressively regain momentum.
- Deposit growth: 20% to 25%, supported by stronger client relationships; peso deposits expected to lead in the base case, with potential upside for dollar balances from the tax amnesty law.
- Asset quality: NPL ratio expected between 5% and 6%, with a temporary peak in Q1 2026; cost of risk projected between 6% and 6.5%.
- NIM: expected between 14% and 16%, with funding dynamics and disciplined pricing supporting margins, though a shift toward corporate lending could moderate NIM.
- Net fee income: expected to expand around 5% in real terms, supported by banking and brokerage activity.
- ROE: guidance range of 4% to 9%, with management expecting sequential improvement through 2026.
Executives said the company expects ROE to improve as margins recover and operating leverage builds, with management stating in Q&A that it expects ROE to move into double digits by the end of 2026 and potentially reach high teens by late 2027 and 2028.
At Invertir Online (IOL), CEO Diego Pizzulli said the company is focusing more on affluent clients, SMEs, and independent financial advisors, while maintaining leadership in retail brokerage. Management also highlighted the development of asset management within IOL, noting it represents 10% of brokerage fee revenues and that proprietary funds have been launched, including a recently launched third fund.
Biglia said the macro assumptions embedded in the company’s guidance include inflation of 22.4%, GDP growth of 3.7%, and an exchange rate of ARS 1,750 per U.S. dollar by the end of 2026.
About Grupo Supervielle NYSE: SUPV
Grupo Supervielle NYSE: SUPV is a diversified Argentine financial services holding company headquartered in Buenos Aires. Through its principal subsidiary, Banco Supervielle, the group offers retail and commercial banking products including checking and savings accounts, consumer and corporate loans, credit and debit cards, treasury services and foreign exchange solutions. These services cater to individual customers, small and medium-sized enterprises and larger corporates throughout Argentina’s provincial and urban centers.
Beyond traditional banking, Grupo Supervielle operates in insurance and asset management.
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