PageGroup LON: PAGE reported a “resilient performance” in its 2026 first-quarter trading update, with management pointing to heightened geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty and continued difficulty converting offers into accepted placements across many markets.
Q1 gross profit down 4.9% in constant currency
Chief Financial Officer Kelvin Stagg said Q1 gross profit was GBP 187 million, a 4.9% decline in constant currencies versus Q1 2025. Despite the softer topline, Stagg said productivity remained strong, with gross profit per fee earner up 2% year-over-year.
Headcount was broadly stable. Fee earner headcount rose by 26 in the quarter (0.5%) to 4,994, while total headcount ended at 6,801. Stagg said hiring was reallocated toward areas with “the most significant long-term structural opportunities,” while reductions were made in weaker markets.
Balance sheet moves to modest net debt after bonus and profit share payments
Stagg said PageGroup ended March with around GBP 7 million of net debt, compared with GBP 31 million of net cash at the end of 2025, after annual bonus and quarterly profit share payments in January.
He added that the shift between year-end and Q1 was in line with historical seasonality, noting it is “not unusual for us to drop by about GBP 40 million between the year-end position and the end of Q1.” Stagg also said the company now believes it can operate “structurally on about GBP 25 million worth of net cash rather than the GBP 50 million that we historically would have needed,” citing cash flow management.
Looking ahead, Stagg said he still expected PageGroup to return to net cash by year-end, “subject to trading and subject to decisions on further dividends,” with an expectation of GBP 30 million to GBP 40 million. He also said that given the GBP 10 million final dividend due in June, the group “could well be” around GBP 5 million net debt at the half-year.
Regional performance remained uneven
Stagg said market conditions remained “variable,” with “ongoing challenging conditions in Europe and the U.K.” but continued growth in the U.S. and Asia. He said the group delivered a sixth consecutive quarter of growth in the U.S. and a fourth consecutive quarter of growth in Asia.
- EMEIA (54% of group): Gross profit fell 9.2%. Stagg said confidence remained low across most of the region. Germany (13% of group) declined 7%, with interim recruitment down 1% and demand for project-based work “particularly in finance.” France (12% of group) declined 14%, with temporary down 10% outperforming permanent down 18%. Spain grew 1%. The Middle East declined 12%, and Stagg emphasized the company’s “first and foremost priority is the safety and well-being of our 70 people.” Regional fee earner headcount fell by 51.
- Americas (19% of group): Gross profit grew 1.1%. The U.S. rose 1%, led by Construction up 14%. Stagg said most other disciplines remained tough. Latin America grew 1%, with Mexico down 8% (an improvement from a 17% decline in Q4) amid tariff-related uncertainty, and Brazil down 7%. Colombia rose 15%, with strength in technology-focused consulting. Fee earner headcount rose by 48, mainly in the U.S.
- Asia Pacific (16% of group): Gross profit increased 9.3%. Asia rose 10%, with Greater China up 12% (Mainland China up 21%, Hong Kong up 4%). Southeast Asia grew 5% with Singapore up 16%. India rose 10%, its fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Japan grew 17% following investment, and Australia rose 4%. Fee earner headcount increased by 58, mainly in Southeast Asia and India.
- U.K. (11% of group): Gross profit declined 11.4%. Temporary recruitment fell 7% and permanent fell 14%. Fee earner headcount decreased by 29.
Conversion of offers to placements remains the key challenge
Management repeatedly highlighted conversion rates as the primary constraint on performance. Stagg said client recruitment budgets have tightened in many markets, extending time to hire, while “fee rates remained at record or high levels across all regions.” He added that salary levels remained strong, but increases were not as elevated as in 2022 and early 2023, and “as a consequence, the conversion of offers to placements remained the most significant challenge.”
In the Q&A, CEO Nicholas Kirk said PageGroup is not seeing a broad-based U.S. recovery, with several disciplines still “really tough,” including “financial services, finance, sales and marketing, legal.” He said the company has benefited from its exposure to U.S. Construction, which accounts for “55% of our business” there. Kirk said the market is “really hot” due to “a severe lack of talent” for the leadership roles the company recruits: “estimators,” “project managers,” and “site supers.”
On the divergence between Europe and stronger performance in the Americas and Asia, Kirk suggested part of the explanation is timing, noting those regions softened earlier, “and therefore one could assume perhaps that they would come out of it first.” He also tied improvement in certain markets to normalization in offer acceptance, referencing a typical “ratio” moving back toward normal levels in stronger markets while Europe and the U.K. remain weaker.
France and cost actions: job acquisition softening and ongoing efficiency programs
France drew specific attention in both prepared remarks and Q&A. Kirk described the market as “tough,” citing political uncertainty and increased candidate caution, particularly for permanent roles. He said the company has seen a “circa 10% reduction in new jobs per fee earner,” which he called “a bit of a concern” heading into Q2. Kirk added that leadership in France does not expect “any significant change… until we get through till summer next year when they have the presidential election.”
On cost flexibility amid uncertainty, Stagg said PageGroup continues to align fee earner numbers to activity levels, noting that while the number of jobs has generally not fallen, the company is experiencing challenges “at the bottom of the funnel” in monetizing offers. He pointed to declines in job acquisition per fee earner in France and the U.K. and said the company may use natural attrition to realign headcount, while also moving people within the U.K. into disciplines with better activity following a restructure.
Stagg also outlined ongoing efforts to reduce and streamline non-operational costs. He said the transition of the shared service center from Singapore to Kuala Lumpur is complete, and the company is working on efficiencies there. He added that a multi-year HR transformation is underway, shifting HR from local countries into shared service centers, which is expected to deliver efficiencies and wage arbitrage. PageGroup has also been moving support roles from higher-cost locations into places such as Barcelona, Buenos Aires, and Kuala Lumpur. While Stagg said there was “nothing to announce at this point,” he said the company may be able to provide “something a bit more material” by the Q2 update.
Stagg concluded that geopolitical risk—particularly the Middle East conflict—has increased uncertainty for the remainder of the year, including potential impacts through oil prices, inflation, and interest rates. Even so, he said the group remains focused on “controlling the controllables,” investing in innovation and technology, and executing its strategy, citing a diversified business model, strong balance sheet, and a cost base “under continuous review.”
PageGroup said its next update will be its Q2 2026 Trading Update on 13 July.
About PageGroup LON: PAGE
PageGroup Changes Lives…
That's our PageGroup Purpose, delivered by c.7,300 people in 36 countries, with a gross profit of over £842.6m in 2024. Our four core PageGroup brands are supported by specialised recruitment teams operating across 25 disciplines.
As a FTSE 250 company, a lot has changed since we were set up in 1976 and the Group continues to grow and evolve. What hasn't changed is our commitment to the success of our clients and candidates, and our own people.
PageGroup's strategy is geared for the long-term.
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