Lori J. Ryerkerk
Chairman, Chief Executive Officer & President at Celanese
Yes. Look, I would say, at this stage, we are really focused on what we can control. So what we've assumed in our $11 to $12 guide is we see the kind of the diminishing of destocking. So we are assuming that we are getting to the destocking. We are not though assuming a really big uptick in demand or restocking. So I would say we're still assuming kind of below normal demand patterns, but without the destocking. So we are -- that is kind of the one upside that we're assuming. That's maybe a few percent at the most. And otherwise, it's really -- our outlook is really focused on what we can control. I would say if we look at the market, I mean, good news is, I think, as we're starting '24 although I'd like to say we're back in normal demand patterns, we're not.
But look, we are starting to see some easing of some of the demand and competitive challenges we had. We called out, we're seeing less movement in materials out of Asia into Europe. So that indicates to us that local demand is improving in China. And we see that. I would say in China, generally, we feel like demand for China consumption is approaching normal order patterns and normal levels. But the exports of goods out of China is still depressed, especially into Europe. So there's still some downside on demand there. I think in the Americas, we're seeing demand come back gradually.
We saw some improvement in Industrial in the fourth quarter, but then we saw the reduction in auto, which was seasonal destocking. I expect that to come back in the first quarter. But again, not anticipating a huge uptick in demand there for consumer goods and electronics. In Europe, I'd say, similar to the US, but probably even a longer time frame and before we could return to demand. I mean, the other thing I would add though is, look, we are seeing some improvement in construction kind of normalizing. So that's good, and that's supported by a slight movement upward in terms of VAM pricing as well.
