Thor Industries Accelerates To A Triple-Digit Growth Rate
To say that Thor Industries (NYSE: THO) has benefited from the pandemic is a bit of an understatement. The entire RV and camping industry has seen a sustained uptick in business that is not only sustaining itself but accelerating. The pandemic unleashed latent, pent-up, secular demand for outdoor recreation equipment that has years to go until it is sated. The best evidence of this that we can give is the fact that RV inventories on dealer lots continue to decline in the face of rising production. In our view, this stock is not only on track to sustain the growth it also presents a value and yield for dividend growth investors.
"Demand for our products continues to grow at both the retail and wholesale levels. While our pace of production and shipments has accelerated, demand is so high that independent dealer inventories of THOR Industries products continue to decline while dealer sales are increasing. This increasing consumer demand has driven our order backlog to more than $14 billion at the end of the quarter and includes units that will be needed to restock depleted dealer inventories. Since a significant number of units in our backlog have already been retail sold, we currently believe the restocking cycle will extend well into calendar 2022," said Martin.
Blowout Results Lift Thor Industries
Thor Industries had a blowout quarter in which revenue topped $3.46 billion for a gain of 106% from last year. As great as the comp is, we don't want you to focus on that number because it's an easy comparison. While the RV industry has seen a robust rebound from the pandemic lows, it was not immune to the shutdowns, Thor Industries revenue shrank nearly 33% in the 2020 Q3 time frame to rival a multi-year low. The two-year comparison and the comparison versus the consensus estimate provide more color in our opinion.
Thor Industries Q3 Revenue is up 37% in the 2-year comparison and beat the consensus estimate by 1500 basis points. The beat is noteworthy not only for its size but also because the analyst estimates have been steadily rising over the past few months due to the high visibility of sales and demand in the industry.
On a segment basis, the North American segment was strongest with triple-digit gains in both towable and motorized RVs. Sales of North American Towable RVs increased more than 120% while sales of North American motorized RVs increased about 200%. Turning to Europe, which is still dealing with shutdowns, sales increased 45% with a substantial contribution from favorable foreign exchange.
Looking forward, the company does not expect to see demand slow anytime soon. The RVIA forecast for North American wholesale RV shipments continues to rise and is now tickling up 34% from last year’s record. In our opinion, that estimate will continue to rise with only one caveat. Supply chain issues, specifically with microchips, may put a ceiling on how many RVs can be completed and delivered this year.
The Technical Outlook: Thor Industries Is Putting In A Bottom
Shares of Thor Industries have pulled back from their most recent highs but appear to be putting in a bottom. The Q3 results and updated guidance have shares up more than 3.5% in after-hours trading in confirmation of support. Support appears to be near the $117 level where price action is putting in a double bottom. If price action can sustain upward momentum from here and move above the short-term EMA we see this chart forming a strong buy signal. Regardless, with shares trading near 12X earnings and paying a 1.4% dividend, it's a real bargain And one with a very high likelihood of aggressive dividend increases.
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