Noble Financial Issues Pessimistic Outlook for ARLP Earnings

Key Points

• Noble Financial cut its FY2027 EPS estimate for Alliance Resource Partners to $2.67 (from $2.78), signaling a more pessimistic near-term earnings outlook and providing EPS forecasts through FY2030.
• ARLP beat Q1 EPS ($0.75 vs. $0.61) but missed revenue estimates, while management lifted 2026 oil & gas volume guidance and the board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.60 (annualized $2.40), a ~9.1% yield with a 100% payout ratio (ex-dividend May 8).
• Analyst sentiment is mixed (two Buys, two Holds) with an average MarketBeat rating of Moderate Buy and a $30 target; the stock trades around $26.47 with a P/E of ~13.9.

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (NASDAQ:ARLP - Free Report) - Research analysts at Noble Financial lowered their FY2027 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Alliance Resource Partners in a note issued to investors on Tuesday, April 28th. Noble Financial analyst M. Reichman now anticipates that the energy company will post earnings of $2.67 per share for the year, down from their previous forecast of $2.78. The consensus estimate for Alliance Resource Partners' current full-year earnings is $2.34 per share. Noble Financial also issued estimates for Alliance Resource Partners' FY2028 earnings at $2.99 EPS, FY2029 earnings at $3.13 EPS and FY2030 earnings at $3.48 EPS.

Alliance Resource Partners (NASDAQ:ARLP - Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings data on Monday, February 2nd. The energy company reported $0.75 EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $0.61 by $0.14. Alliance Resource Partners had a return on equity of 16.75% and a net margin of 11.35%.The company had revenue of $535.51 million during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $556.82 million.

ARLP has been the subject of a number of other research reports. Weiss Ratings lowered Alliance Resource Partners from a "buy (b-)" rating to a "hold (c)" rating in a research note on Monday, March 16th. Wall Street Zen downgraded Alliance Resource Partners from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a research report on Saturday, April 4th. Benchmark reiterated a "buy" rating on shares of Alliance Resource Partners in a research report on Tuesday, February 3rd. Finally, Zacks Research upgraded Alliance Resource Partners from a "strong sell" rating to a "hold" rating in a research report on Friday, April 24th. Two analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have assigned a Hold rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat, Alliance Resource Partners currently has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average target price of $30.00.

Alliance Resource Partners Stock Performance

NASDAQ ARLP opened at $26.47 on Wednesday. The firm has a market cap of $3.41 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.93 and a beta of 0.31. The company has a quick ratio of 1.41, a current ratio of 2.10 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.23. The business has a 50-day moving average price of $26.88 and a 200-day moving average price of $25.17. Alliance Resource Partners has a twelve month low of $22.20 and a twelve month high of $29.45.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Alliance Resource Partners

Institutional investors and hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of the business. Royal Bank of Canada increased its holdings in Alliance Resource Partners by 7.0% during the 1st quarter. Royal Bank of Canada now owns 19,058 shares of the energy company's stock worth $519,000 after purchasing an additional 1,254 shares during the period. Geode Capital Management LLC increased its holdings in Alliance Resource Partners by 0.7% during the 2nd quarter. Geode Capital Management LLC now owns 118,249 shares of the energy company's stock worth $3,091,000 after purchasing an additional 855 shares during the period. Jump Financial LLC purchased a new position in shares of Alliance Resource Partners in the 2nd quarter valued at $418,000. HUB Investment Partners LLC increased its holdings in shares of Alliance Resource Partners by 4.0% in the 2nd quarter. HUB Investment Partners LLC now owns 13,094 shares of the energy company's stock valued at $342,000 after acquiring an additional 499 shares during the period. Finally, MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. increased its holdings in shares of Alliance Resource Partners by 4.8% in the 2nd quarter. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. now owns 518,451 shares of the energy company's stock valued at $13,552,000 after acquiring an additional 23,579 shares during the period. 18.11% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.

Alliance Resource Partners Announces Dividend

The firm also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Friday, May 15th. Investors of record on Friday, May 8th will be paid a dividend of $0.60 per share. This represents a $2.40 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 9.1%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Friday, May 8th. Alliance Resource Partners's dividend payout ratio (DPR) is currently 100.00%.

More Alliance Resource Partners News

Here are the key news stories impacting Alliance Resource Partners this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q1 EPS slightly beat expectations (reported $0.37 vs. consensus ~ $0.3475), which reassured investors on near-term profitability. Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. NASDAQ: ARLP Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
• Positive Sentiment: Multiple outlets reported a revenue beat or stronger-than-expected top-line signals, which supported the stock move higher on the session. Alliance Resource Partners stock rises over 3% on revenue beat
• Positive Sentiment: The board declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.60 per unit (high yield ~9.1% on current pricing), with an ex-dividend date of May 8 — a strong income signal for yield-focused investors. Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Reports First Quarter Financial and Operating Results; Declares Quarterly Cash Distribution of $0.60 Per Unit; and Updates 2026 Guidance
• Positive Sentiment: Management nudged 2026 guidance: roughly a ~5% increase to oil & gas volume guidance and >95% of coal sales reported as committed — improving revenue visibility for the year. Alliance Resource Partners outlines ~5% increase to 2026 oil and gas volume guidance while coal sales move to over 95% committed
• Neutral Sentiment: Analyst and metric summaries highlight mixed details under the headline numbers — useful for modeling but not decisive on its own. Read the metrics breakdown for context. Compared to Estimates, Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) Q1 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics
• Negative Sentiment: Company commentary and analyst notes flag continued strain in the coal segment despite royalty/other strengths — ongoing coal headwinds could pressure margins if commodity or contract dynamics worsen. Alliance Resource Partners Balances Royalty Strength, Coal Strain

About Alliance Resource Partners

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. NASDAQ: ARLP is a Tulsa, Oklahoma–based master limited partnership engaged in the production, marketing and transportation of bituminous coal. Through its subsidiaries, the company develops, owns and operates surface and underground coal mines, providing fuel primarily for electric power generation and various industrial applications. Alliance's integrated business model covers the extraction of raw coal, processing at preparation plants and delivery to domestic and export customers.

The partnership operates multiple mining complexes across Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky and West Virginia.

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