Erste Group Bank Expects Increased Earnings for Chevron

Key Points

• Erste Group Bank sharply raised its FY2026 EPS estimate for Chevron to $12.53 (from $7.94) and pegged FY2027 at $11.55, signaling materially higher forward profit expectations versus prior forecasts.
• Chevron increased its quarterly dividend to $1.78 (annualized $7.12, ~3.7% yield), but the payout ratio is above 100%, which could raise questions about sustainability.
• Senior insiders sold large stakes in March — including CEO Michael Wirth and Vice Chairman Mark Nelson — with insiders offloading about 768,673 shares (~$144M) over the past three months, a potential governance or signaling concern for investors.

Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX - Free Report) - Equities research analysts at Erste Group Bank lifted their FY2026 earnings per share estimates for Chevron in a research report issued on Monday, April 27th. Erste Group Bank analyst H. Engel now expects that the oil and gas company will post earnings per share of $12.53 for the year, up from their prior estimate of $7.94. The consensus estimate for Chevron's current full-year earnings is $13.55 per share. Erste Group Bank also issued estimates for Chevron's FY2027 earnings at $11.55 EPS.

Chevron (NYSE:CVX - Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings data on Friday, January 30th. The oil and gas company reported $1.52 earnings per share for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $1.44 by $0.08. Chevron had a return on equity of 7.89% and a net margin of 6.51%.The business had revenue of $45.79 billion for the quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of $48.18 billion. During the same quarter in the previous year, the firm earned $2.06 earnings per share. The business's revenue was down 10.2% on a year-over-year basis.

A number of other research firms also recently issued reports on CVX. Freedom Capital downgraded shares of Chevron from a "hold" rating to a "strong sell" rating in a report on Tuesday, January 6th. BMO Capital Markets reiterated an "outperform" rating and issued a $190.00 target price on shares of Chevron in a research note on Monday, February 2nd. Royal Bank Of Canada increased their target price on shares of Chevron from $200.00 to $220.00 and gave the company an "outperform" rating in a research report on Monday, April 13th. Mizuho raised their price target on shares of Chevron from $206.00 to $217.00 and gave the stock an "outperform" rating in a research note on Tuesday, March 17th. Finally, TD Cowen lowered their price target on shares of Chevron from $214.00 to $204.00 and set a "hold" rating on the stock in a report on Monday, April 13th. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, seventeen have assigned a Buy rating, five have given a Hold rating and two have assigned a Sell rating to the company's stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the company currently has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus price target of $198.09.

Chevron Trading Up 2.0%

NYSE CVX opened at $192.05 on Thursday. The business's fifty day moving average is $192.91 and its 200-day moving average is $170.93. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21, a current ratio of 1.15 and a quick ratio of 0.86. The stock has a market capitalization of $382.62 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.84, a PEG ratio of 0.71 and a beta of 0.60. Chevron has a one year low of $133.77 and a one year high of $214.71.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Chevron

Several hedge funds have recently made changes to their positions in CVX. Midwest Capital Advisors LLC purchased a new stake in shares of Chevron in the first quarter worth about $25,000. Core Wealth Advisors LLC purchased a new position in Chevron during the fourth quarter valued at approximately $26,000. Phillip James Consulting Co. bought a new stake in Chevron during the 4th quarter worth approximately $26,000. Basso Capital Management L.P. bought a new stake in Chevron during the 4th quarter worth approximately $27,000. Finally, Karpus Management Inc. purchased a new stake in Chevron in the 4th quarter worth approximately $27,000. 72.42% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Insider Activity

In related news, CEO Michael K. Wirth sold 272,624 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, March 2nd. The shares were sold at an average price of $189.35, for a total value of $51,621,354.40. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief executive officer directly owned 31,266 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $5,920,217.10. This trade represents a 89.71% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this hyperlink. Also, Vice Chairman Mark A. Nelson sold 139,600 shares of the business's stock in a transaction on Monday, March 2nd. The shares were sold at an average price of $187.92, for a total transaction of $26,233,632.00. Following the sale, the insider directly owned 11,337 shares in the company, valued at $2,130,449.04. The trade was a 92.49% decrease in their position. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. Over the last three months, insiders have sold 768,673 shares of company stock valued at $144,148,191. 0.56% of the stock is currently owned by corporate insiders.

Chevron Increases Dividend

The firm also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Tuesday, March 10th. Shareholders of record on Tuesday, February 17th were issued a dividend of $1.78 per share. This represents a $7.12 annualized dividend and a yield of 3.7%. This is a boost from Chevron's previous quarterly dividend of $1.71. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Tuesday, February 17th. Chevron's payout ratio is currently 106.91%.

Key Headlines Impacting Chevron

Here are the key news stories impacting Chevron this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Erste Group sharply raised its earnings forecasts for Chevron — boosting FY2026 EPS to $12.53 (from $7.94) and FY2027 to $11.55 (from $9.73) — which underpins higher forward profit expectations for CVX.
• Positive Sentiment: Libya signed a preliminary agreement with Chevron to jointly assess shale oil and gas in multiple basins, expanding Chevron’s upstream opportunity set and potential future production. Libya signs preliminary agreement with Chevron
• Positive Sentiment: Chevron’s increased imports of Venezuelan crude are helping ease feedstock constraints and marginally lower US pump-price pressure, which can improve refinery throughput and margins. Venezuelan Crude Will Eventually Lower US Gas Prices
• Neutral Sentiment: The White House met with Chevron and oil traders amid tensions with Iran; heightened geopolitical risk has pushed crude higher (supportive for integrated oil names) but raises policy and supply-risk uncertainty. White House meets with Chevron, oil traders amid Iran standoff - Politico
• Neutral Sentiment: CEO Mike Wirth warned jet-fuel supply/disruption from the Middle East could worsen aviation strain — a signal of tight product markets that can lift refining margins but also point to demand softness in transportation segments. Chevron CEO Wirth sees aviation strain worsening
• Neutral Sentiment: Reports say ENEOS is in late talks to buy roughly $2B of Chevron’s Asian assets — a portfolio simplification that could free capital but has limited immediate operational impact. ENEOS in final talks for $2B in Asian assets from Chevron
• Negative Sentiment: Wall Street expects a year-over-year decline in Chevron’s Q1 revenue and EPS; the company is widely noted to be “bracing” for lower quarterly results, making the upcoming earnings release a near-term catalyst that could disappoint if results and guidance underperform. Chevron braces for Q1 earnings and revenue decline

About Chevron

Chevron Corporation NYSE: CVX is an American multinational energy company engaged in virtually all aspects of the oil and gas industry. As an integrated energy firm, Chevron's core activities include upstream oil and natural gas exploration and production, midstream transportation and storage, downstream refining and marketing of fuels and lubricants, and petrochemical manufacturing through joint ventures and subsidiaries. The company markets fuels under brands such as Chevron, Texaco and Caltex and supplies a range of products and services to retail customers, industrial users and commercial fleets worldwide.

Chevron traces its corporate lineage to the early petroleum companies that eventually became Standard Oil of California and has evolved through significant mergers and restructurings, including the acquisitions of Gulf Oil and Texaco.

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