Zacks Research Has Negative Estimate for AAL Q1 Earnings

Key Points

• Zacks Research cut its Q1 EPS estimate for American Airlines to $0.97 (from $1.05) and issued a FY2028 EPS projection of $3.57, while the consensus current full‑year estimate is $2.42 per share.
• American missed its most recent quarter (reported $0.16 EPS vs. $0.38 expected) with revenue slightly below forecasts and weak fundamentals—negative return on equity and thin margins—while management's guidance shows Q1 and FY 2026 EPS ranges that reflect ongoing pressure.
• Shares have been buoyed by United–American merger rumors and speculative call buying, but the potential deal faces major regulatory/antitrust risk and analysts remain mixed (average rating: Hold, average price target: $15.09).

American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL - Free Report) - Investment analysts at Zacks Research decreased their Q1 2028 EPS estimates for American Airlines Group in a research note issued to investors on Wednesday, April 15th. Zacks Research analyst Team now expects that the airline will post earnings per share of $0.97 for the quarter, down from their previous estimate of $1.05. The consensus estimate for American Airlines Group's current full-year earnings is $2.42 per share. Zacks Research also issued estimates for American Airlines Group's FY2028 earnings at $3.57 EPS.

American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL - Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings data on Tuesday, January 27th. The airline reported $0.16 earnings per share for the quarter, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.38 by ($0.22). American Airlines Group had a negative return on equity of 5.90% and a net margin of 0.20%.The firm had revenue of $14 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of $14.12 billion. During the same quarter in the previous year, the firm earned $0.86 earnings per share. American Airlines Group's revenue was up 2.5% on a year-over-year basis. American Airlines Group has set its Q1 2026 guidance at -0.500--0.100 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance at 1.700-2.700 EPS.

A number of other equities analysts have also weighed in on the stock. TD Cowen decreased their price objective on shares of American Airlines Group from $17.00 to $13.00 and set a "buy" rating for the company in a report on Monday, March 9th. Wall Street Zen lowered shares of American Airlines Group from a "hold" rating to a "sell" rating in a report on Saturday, April 11th. Argus upgraded shares of American Airlines Group to a "hold" rating in a report on Wednesday, January 28th. Bank of America boosted their price objective on shares of American Airlines Group from $15.00 to $17.00 and gave the stock a "neutral" rating in a report on Tuesday, January 6th. Finally, Rothschild & Co Redburn restated a "neutral" rating and issued a $12.50 price objective (down from $17.00) on shares of American Airlines Group in a report on Thursday, March 5th. Six research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, nine have assigned a Hold rating and two have assigned a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the company presently has an average rating of "Hold" and an average price target of $15.09.

American Airlines Group Stock Up 0.3%

Shares of NASDAQ AAL opened at $12.17 on Thursday. American Airlines Group has a twelve month low of $8.96 and a twelve month high of $16.50. The firm has a market cap of $8.04 billion, a P/E ratio of 71.59 and a beta of 1.25. The company has a 50 day moving average of $12.08 and a 200 day moving average of $13.23.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On American Airlines Group

Large investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the stock. Commonwealth Equity Services LLC grew its position in American Airlines Group by 51.5% in the 3rd quarter. Commonwealth Equity Services LLC now owns 868,776 shares of the airline's stock worth $9,765,000 after purchasing an additional 295,298 shares during the period. Neo Ivy Capital Management grew its position in American Airlines Group by 443.4% in the 3rd quarter. Neo Ivy Capital Management now owns 195,838 shares of the airline's stock worth $2,201,000 after purchasing an additional 159,800 shares during the period. Vontobel Holding Ltd. grew its position in American Airlines Group by 80.1% in the 3rd quarter. Vontobel Holding Ltd. now owns 171,048 shares of the airline's stock worth $1,923,000 after purchasing an additional 76,081 shares during the period. Farther Finance Advisors LLC grew its position in American Airlines Group by 9,081.4% in the 3rd quarter. Farther Finance Advisors LLC now owns 117,798 shares of the airline's stock worth $1,324,000 after purchasing an additional 116,515 shares during the period. Finally, Clear Street Group Inc. bought a new stake in American Airlines Group in the 3rd quarter worth approximately $1,480,000. Institutional investors own 52.44% of the company's stock.

American Airlines Group News Roundup

Here are the key news stories impacting American Airlines Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Merger rumors are the primary driver of the rally — traders are pricing a possible United–American tie-up that could lift AAL shares in the near term. Sky-High Stakes: United and American Merger Rumors
• Positive Sentiment: Unusually large call-option buying indicates speculative bullish positioning that can amplify short-term upside if talk persists (high gamma and squeeze dynamics).
• Positive Sentiment: Recent easing in jet-fuel pressure (after de‑escalation headlines) provides some operating-cost relief for carriers, supporting sentiment across the sector. Sky-High Stakes: United and American Merger Rumors
• Neutral Sentiment: Upcoming earnings: American reports next on April 23 — results and guidance will be decisive for medium-term direction beyond rumor-driven moves. American Airlines earnings report date
• Negative Sentiment: Regulatory and antitrust risk is large — a combined carrier would control a dominant share of U.S. capacity, making DOJ/FTC opposition likely and any deal far from assured. United CEO Kirby raised potential tie-up with American
• Negative Sentiment: American's fundamentals are weak (low market cap, negative book value, high leverage), which raises execution and financing risks if a large deal were pursued or if the rumor fails to materialize. Sky-High Stakes: United and American Merger Rumors
• Negative Sentiment: Analysts are skeptical — several firms note the likelihood of significant divestitures or outright rejection; if regulators block a deal, AAL shares could reverse sharply. What a United-American merger would mean, from antitrust hurdles to airfare

American Airlines Group Company Profile

American Airlines Group Inc is a leading global airline holding company headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas. Formed in December 2013 through the merger of AMR Corporation (parent of American Airlines) and US Airways Group, the company operates one of the world's largest passenger and cargo networks. Its subsidiaries include American Airlines, which provides mainline service, and American Eagle, a network of regional carriers operating short- and medium-haul routes on behalf of the mainline carrier.

The company offers scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo to more than 350 destinations in over 50 countries.

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