Mobileye Eyes Higher ASPs as Surround ADAS, Volkswagen Programs Ramp

Key Points

• Surround ADAS could significantly lift Mobileye’s pricing: Three programs are scheduled to launch in 2028, with per-unit pricing near $125 versus roughly $46 for core ADAS. If 30%–40% of volume transitions over four to five years, Mobileye expects average selling prices to reach approximately $80–$90.
• Volkswagen programs are set to drive higher-value growth: Porsche SuperVision launches in early 2027 and is expected to scale to 300,000–350,000 vehicles annually by its third year, while Mobileye Chauffeur is planned for the first half of 2028. Mobileye expects its Volkswagen-related average selling price to double by around 2030.
• Autonomous mobility expansion remains a longer-term opportunity: Mobileye expects driverless Mobileye Drive vehicles in Florida by year-end and Volkswagen’s MOIA robotaxi service in five or six cities by the end of 2027, while also exploring its own initial robotaxi operation in the southeastern U.S.

Mobileye Global NASDAQ: MBLY said inventory held by its Tier 1 customers stood at roughly five weeks, compared with a typical range of four to five weeks, as automakers maintain somewhat higher safety stock amid supply-chain constraints.

Speaking at Canaccord Genuity’s growth conference, Chief Communications Officer Dan Galves said the company shipped about 1 million units in the first quarter, contributing to the increase in safety stock but keeping inventory within normal levels. He said Mobileye has accounted in its second-half guidance for the possibility that Tier 1 suppliers reduce inventory late in the year before replenishing it in the first quarter.

Surround ADAS Wins Target Higher Selling Prices

Galves said Mobileye has secured three design wins for its Mobileye Surround ADAS system, all scheduled to launch in 2028. The system uses one EyeQ6 High chip to manage five or six cameras and several radars.

The company’s core advanced driver-assistance systems business has an average selling price of about $46, while Surround ADAS is expected to generate between 2.5 times and three times that level. Galves later characterized the product’s price at about $125 per unit. The three programs represent approximately 30% to 40% of each automaker’s volumes on average, though the conversion will occur over time as new vehicle models are introduced.

Galves said Surround ADAS carries a similar percentage margin to the core business, which he described as in the mid- to high-60% range. If 30% to 40% of Mobileye’s volume transitions to these systems over the next four to five years, he said average selling prices could reach $80 to $90.

He described Surround ADAS as a second-generation highway hands-free system, positioned as a potentially lower-cost and more integrated alternative to first-generation systems that may involve multiple suppliers for radar, driver monitoring, parking software and other functions. He also said emerging European safety regulations for 2029 would require expanded capabilities, including the ability to identify pedestrians alongside a vehicle, increasing the need for side-view cameras.

Mapping Data and Volkswagen Launch Plans

Galves highlighted Mobileye’s Road Experience Management, or REM, mapping technology, which collects anonymized telemetry data from vehicles equipped with Mobileye chips and front-facing cameras. He said about 8 million cars consistently send data to the company across the U.S. and Europe, amounting to billions of miles of information.

The data includes details such as road curvature, lane markings, typical vehicle behavior around stop signs and common driving speeds. Galves said the information can improve driving comfort and support simulation by providing a closer representation of real-world road conditions.

Volkswagen Group is adopting Mobileye’s product portfolio, according to Galves. Mobileye SuperVision is set to launch in the first Porsche vehicle in the first quarter of 2027, with a more significant volume ramp expected in the second half of that year. The program is intended to reach roughly 300,000 to 350,000 vehicles annually by its third year, he said.

Mobileye Chauffeur, a Level 3 system designed to enable driver disengagement on highways under certain conditions, is scheduled to launch in the first half of 2028. Galves said the company and Volkswagen are working through 30,000 requirements for SuperVision to create a validated production system.

• Mobileye Surround ADAS: about $125 per unit, according to Galves.
• Mobileye SuperVision: about $1,300 per unit.
• Mobileye Chauffeur: between $2,500 and $3,000 per unit.
• Mobileye Drive robotaxi system: approximately $40,000, under a different business model.

Excluding the lower-volume robotaxi business, Galves said Mobileye expects its average selling price with Volkswagen to double by around 2030, based on approximately 7 million units. He said the company has already made substantial investments in the higher-value products and expects operating leverage to be strong as volumes increase.

Robotaxi Expansion and Mentee Synergies

Mobileye expects vehicles using its Mobileye Drive autonomous system to operate without safety drivers in Florida by the end of the year. Volkswagen plans to deploy a robotaxi service through its MOIA division in five or six cities by the end of 2027, including Los Angeles and Orlando in the U.S. and four cities in Europe, Galves said.

Mobileye also plans to operate an end-to-end service in an unannounced city in the southeastern U.S. around the middle of next year. Galves said the company expects to generate demand itself in that initial market. He said the first several hundred vehicles could cost about $100,000 each and could be funded within Mobileye’s cash flow, with potential securitized financing and off-balance-sheet arrangements considered for broader scaling.

Galves also discussed Mentee, a humanoid robotics business that he said is developing systems with vertically integrated hardware, computing and software. He said Mentee aims to train robots through a small number of demonstrations rather than teleoperation, and that Mobileye sees potential synergies in perception, planning, data access and simulation technologies.

About Mobileye Global (NASDAQ:MBLY)

Mobileye Global Inc NASDAQ: MBLY is a leader in the development of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving technologies. Headquartered in Jerusalem, Israel, the company designs and supplies computer vision-based solutions that enable vehicles to detect and respond to road conditions, obstacles and signage. Mobileye's core offering centers on its proprietary EyeQ system-on-a-chip (SoC) family, which processes video streams from automotive cameras to deliver features such as lane-keeping assist, adaptive cruise control, collision prevention and traffic sign recognition.

Founded in 1999 by Prof.

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