BWX Technologies Targets $6B Revenue by 2030 as Nuclear Backlog Surges

Key Points

• BWX Technologies raised its long-term growth outlook, targeting $5.5 billion to $6 billion in revenue, $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion in adjusted EBITDA and $525 million to $575 million in free cash flow by 2030. The company expects margins to expand to about 20% from 17.5% in 2026.
• Backlog has more than doubled to $8.4 billion from $4 billion at the prior Investor Day, providing roughly nine quarters of work at the current run rate. BWXT expects 2026 revenue of $3.8 billion, with about $3.7 billion tied to nuclear activities.
• Growth is supported by commercial nuclear projects, naval propulsion, advanced reactors and special-materials contracts, including major depleted-uranium and enrichment initiatives. Commercial Operations is projected to deliver high-teens annual revenue growth through 2030, while government programs account for nearly $7 billion of total backlog.

BWX Technologies NYSE: BWXT used its 2026 Investor Day to outline a higher-growth outlook through 2030, supported by expansion in commercial nuclear equipment and services, government nuclear programs, special materials and advanced reactor initiatives.

Chief Executive Officer Rex Geveden said the company expects $3.8 billion in sales in 2026, up 19% year over year, with approximately $3.7 billion tied to nuclear-related activities. He described BWXT as a “global nuclear industrial champion,” citing 16 major manufacturing sites across North America and Europe, 5 million square feet of nuclear-qualified manufacturing space and 11,400 employees.

The company reported backlog of $8.4 billion, up from $4 billion at its prior Investor Day in early 2024. Geveden said the backlog represented roughly nine quarters of work at BWXT’s current run rate and reflected the company’s ability to convert demand into contracted programs.

2030 Financial Targets

Chief Financial Officer Mike Fitzgerald introduced specific 2030 targets, replacing the company’s prior three- to five-year medium-term framework. BWXT is targeting:

• Revenue of $5.5 billion to $6 billion in 2030, representing low-double-digit annual growth from 2026.
• Adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion, representing low- to mid-teens annual growth.
• Free cash flow of $525 million to $575 million, supported by low-double-digit growth from 2026.
• Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion to approximately 20% in 2030 from an expected 17.5% in 2026.

Fitzgerald said BWXT expects to generate more than $2 billion in cumulative free cash flow from 2026 through 2030. The company expects capital expenditures to remain in a range of 5% to 6% of revenue, including approximately 3.5% to 4% for maintenance capital and 1.5% to 2% for growth investments.

The company reaffirmed its 2026 guidance and provided an initial 2027 framework calling for high-single-digit revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, along with modest margin expansion. BWXT expects 2027 Government Operations revenue growth of high single digits to low double digits, while Commercial Operations is expected to report low-single-digit growth after accounting for the anticipated sale of BWXT Medical and the full-year contribution from Precision Components Group.

BWXT recently announced the sale of a majority interest in BWXT Medical for up to $800 million while retaining an approximately 20% stake. Fitzgerald said the company has allocated about $1.6 billion of capital across 2024 through 2026 through organic investment, acquisitions, dividends and share repurchases. Following its Precision Components Group acquisition, BWXT had $400 million in cash and $1.7 billion in total liquidity, he said.

Commercial Nuclear Growth Plans

John MacQuarrie, president of Commercial Operations, said the segment expects approximately $1.2 billion in 2026 revenue, including about $130 million from the medical business. The business had $1.6 billion in backlog at midyear and employs more than 4,000 people.

MacQuarrie said Commercial Operations has expanded from a primarily CANDU-focused business with about $330 million in revenue in 2020 to a broader supplier of nuclear components, fuel and lifecycle services. Services are now about half of the segment’s business, according to the presentation.

The company has delivered more than 325 commercial steam generators and has 60 more in backlog. It has also delivered more than 2 million fuel assemblies to Canadian customers. BWXT is completing an expansion of its Cambridge, Ontario, facility, adding about 40% to the portion of the plant used for large components and creating what management described as the world’s largest nuclear-component assembly clean room.

MacQuarrie pointed to Canadian life-extension projects, small modular reactor deployments and planned large-reactor construction as key opportunities. BWXT is manufacturing the reactor pressure vessel for Ontario Power Generation’s BWRX-300 project at Darlington, which he described as the Western world’s first SMR under construction. Ontario Power Generation has committed to four units at the site, he said.

The company is also pursuing opportunities in the U.S. and Europe, including work supporting AP1000 deployment in Bulgaria, steam-generator design for Rolls-Royce SMR, and potential BWRX-300 projects in Europe. Commercial Operations expects high-teens revenue compound annual growth through 2030, adjusted EBITDA growth above 20%, and EBITDA margins rising from about 13% to the high teens.

Government Programs and Special Materials

Joe Miller, president of Government Operations, said the segment expects $2.6 billion in 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA of about $520 million, implying a margin of approximately 20.5%. Government Operations accounts for nearly $7 billion of BWXT’s total backlog, with naval nuclear propulsion representing about 70% of segment revenue.

Miller said the naval business is expected to grow at a 4% to 6% compound annual rate based on the existing U.S. shipbuilding plan. Potential upside could come from the proposed battleship program, the SSN-AUKUS program and other international support opportunities, though those items were not included in the company’s forecast.

The segment also includes technical services, advanced nuclear and special materials. BWXT said its technical-services joint ventures operate at 14 sites and generate equity income rather than consolidated revenue. The business has grown from $27 million in EBITDA in 2020 to approximately $80 million, Miller said.

In special materials, BWXT cited a $1.63 billion contract to provide 2,000 metric tons of high-purity depleted uranium and a separate $1.5 billion contract related to scaling centrifuge technology and preparing enrichment capability for highly enriched uranium. Management said the opportunities associated with rebuilding U.S. unobligated enrichment capability could extend into the tens of billions of dollars, though the company did not provide a specific share assumption.

BWXT also highlighted its advanced-nuclear programs. The company has completed fuel delivery for Project Pele and is preparing the reactor for shipment and fueling at Idaho National Laboratory. It plans to deploy a larger version of that technology under the Janus program at Fort Campbell. Miller said BWXT intends to remain a supplier of TRISO fuel both for its own reactor programs and for other reactor developers.

Geveden said BWXT’s investment case rests on demand for nuclear solutions tied to energy security, national security and rising electricity needs, including demand associated with artificial intelligence. He said the company intends to pursue growth while improving manufacturing throughput, applying automation and digital tools, and maintaining disciplined capital allocation.

About BWX Technologies (NYSE:BWXT)

BWX Technologies, Inc NYSE: BWXT is a provider of nuclear components, systems and services for government and commercial customers. The company is best known for designing and manufacturing nuclear reactors and related components for the U.S. Navy's nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and submarines. It also supports the nuclear fuel cycle and provides engineering, manufacturing, maintenance and technical services for nuclear facilities.

BWXT serves the U.S. government, commercial nuclear power producers, research institutions and customers in the healthcare and space industries.

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